Broadleaf Partners 2019 Investment Playbook

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Includes: BIBL, BIL, CHGX, CLTL, CRF, DDM, DFVL, DFVS, DIA, DLBL-OLD, DLBS, DMRL, DOG, DTUL, DTUS, DTYL, DTYS, DUSA, DXD, EDOW, EDV, EEH, EGF, EPS, EQL, EQWS, ESGL, FEX, FIBR, FWDD, GBIL, GOVT, GSEW, GSY, HUSV, HYDD, IEF, IEI, ITE, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OMFS, OPER, OTPIX, PLW, PMOM, PPLC, PSQ, PST, QID, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RISE, RSP, RVRS, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SCAP, SCHO, SCHR, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SFLA, SH, SHV, SHY, SMLL, SPDN, SPLX, SPSM, SPTL, SPTS, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, SYE, TAPR, TBF, TBT, TBX, TLH, TLT, TMF, TMV, TNA, TQQQ, TTT, TUZ, TWM, TYBS, TYD, TYNS, TYO, TZA, UBT, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, USA, USMC, UST, USTB, UWM, VFINX, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VOO, VTWO, VUSTX, VV, ZF, ZROZ
by: Broadleaf/Doug MacKay
Summary

Third quarter GDP was at the higher end of our forecasted range, but the Fed hiked rates more than we had expected; four times in total. As such, we don't believe many, if any, additional rate hikes will be necessary in 2019.

The markets performed quite well through the third quarter, but did correct in the fourth quarter, bringing full-year returns for most indices into negative territory.

While we believe the economy will slow in 2019, we do not believe there will be a recession.

At the end of each year, we like to look back on the year that was and consider what we got right, what we got wrong, and what we might have learned in the process. We then turn our attention to the year to come, hoping that by putting our thoughts in writing, we’ll gain greater clarity on the factors that might drive our investment returns in the future.

We share these thoughts with you, our clients and friends, in the hope that you gain a better understanding of the influences that may drive our investment decisions in the coming year. As always, these decisions are fluid and may change with the circumstances, but are also made with a longer-term perspective and intent to drive superior investment returns over time.

We appreciate your continued confidence in our approach and interest in our work!

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.