10 Scary Charts - January 16, 2019, Update

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Includes: DDM, DIA, DOG, DXD, EEH, EPS, EQL, FEX, FWDD, HUSV, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OTPIX, PSQ, QID, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RSP, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SCAP, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SFLA, SH, SMLL, SPDN, SPLX, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, SYE, TNA, TQQQ, TWM, TZA, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, UWM, VFINX, VOO, VTWO, VV
by: Ted Kavadas
Summary

Displays 10 long-term charts depicting various broad-based aspects of the economic situation.

Charts generally show worrisome levels despite 115 months having passed since the end of the recession.

The charts show how "atypical" the current economic era is from a long-term perspective.

Please note this post is the latest update to a series of articles, the last being "10 Scary Charts - October 16, 2018 Update."

I find the following charts to be disturbing. These charts would be disturbing at any point in the economic cycle; that they (on average) depict such a tenuous situation now – 115 months after the official (as per the September 20, 2010 NBER BCDC announcement) June 2009 end of the recession – is especially notable.

These charts raise a lot of questions. As well, they highlight the “atypical” nature of our economic situation from a long-term historical perspective.

All of these charts are from the Federal Reserve, and represent the most recently updated data.

(click on charts to enlarge images)

Housing starts (last updated December 18, 2018):

US. Bureau of the Census, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started, January 15, 2019.

The Federal Deficit (last updated October 16, 2018):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] [FYFSD], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Surplus or Deficit [-], January 15, 2019.

Federal Net Outlays (last updated October 16, 2018):

US. Office of Management and Budget, Federal Net Outlays [FYONET], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Federal Net Outlays, January 15, 2019.

State & Local Personal Income Tax Receipts (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated July 27, 2018):

US. Bureau of Economic Analysis, State and local government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes: Income taxes [ASLPITAX], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis State and local government current tax receipts: Personal current taxes: Income taxes, January 15, 2019.

Total Loans and Leases of Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated January 11, 2019):

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks [TOTLL], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks, January 15, 2019.

Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks (% Change from Year Ago)(last updated January 11, 2019):

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks [TOTBKCR], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks, January 15, 2019.

M1 Money Multiplier (last updated January 11, 2019):

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, M1 Money Multiplier [MULT], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis M1 Money Multiplier, January 15, 2019.

Median Duration of Unemployment (last updated January 4, 2019):

US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Median Duration of Unemployment, January 15, 2019.

Labor Force Participation Rate (last updated January 4, 2019):

US. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate [CIVPART], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, January 15, 2019.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3)(last updated December 24, 2018):

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average [CFNAIMA3], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Three Month Moving Average, January 15, 2019.

I will continue to update these charts on an intermittent basis as they deserve close monitoring…

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 2610.30 as this post is written

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.