The EV Boom Just Keeps Getting Bigger - Update For The End Of 2018

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Includes: BA, BCCMY, BIDU, BMWYY, BYDDF, BYDDY, GM, GOOG, GOOGL, NSANY, TSLA
by: Matt Bohlsen
Summary

EV news highlights 2015 to end 2018, with 2018 updated.

EV's future - 2019 and beyond updated.

Some futuristic concept and planned electric vehicles for 2019 and beyond.

This article was first published on Jan. 3, 2019; therefore, all data is as of that date.

It has now been almost 4 years since I wrote my first electric vehicle (EV) article back in March 2015 titled "Chinese Electric Vehicle Companies About To Boom." In this article, I update readers on 2018 EV events as well as what lies ahead.

EV news highlights 2015-2018

2015

Tesla Model X production begins

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2016

EV costs declining graph

(Source: Powur)

2017

Tesla Model 3 begins production

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Tesla's semi-truck launched late 2017

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Global electric cars sales grew 58% in 2017

Global electric car market share in 2017 - averaged ~1.4% and peaked at 2% in December

Source: EV-Volumes

2018

A pictorial review of 2018

China is adding a London-sized electric bus fleet every five weeks

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Norway's first zero-emissions ferry - The MF Ampere

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World's first fully electric cargo ship

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Autonomous electric barges planned for the Netherlands

electric barge

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A Bombardier Li-ion battery-operated train

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Boeing Co. backed startup Zunum Aero plans to deliver its first hybrid-electric plane in 2022 to JetSuite Inc.

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Baidu's autonomous mini-bus

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Philippine electric jeepneys

Philippine

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Thai electric tuk-tuks

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Indian electric rickshaws

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BMW and Porsche now have 450kW FastCharge - 100kms in 3 minutes

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A Google/Waymo autonomous car - Lidar and camera on the roof, radar near the bumper bar (front fender)

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2018 - Car companies commitments to going electric from 2018 to 2025

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Tesla Model 3 completely crushing US luxury car competition in 2018

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Bloomberg's forecast annual electric vehicle sales - 30m by 2030, 60m by 2040

Source: Bloomberg research

Bloomberg's forecast annual electric vehicle sales showing market share - 11% by 2025, 28% by 2030, 43% by 2035, 55% by 2040

Note in the chart below Bloomberg is expecting Battery Electric Vehicles [BEVs] to grow by far the most.

Source: Bloomberg research

EV's future - 2019 and beyond

2018 really gives a good insight into what we can expect going forward. As the pictorial news above shows we can expect more electric vehicle of all shapes and sizes. Some of my thoughts for the next few years are listed below.

2019

  • More electric car models and with longer range. Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) manufactures rush to comply with the 2019 China ZEV system.
  • Much more electric charging stations, more advancements in fast charging, more battery gigafactories, cheaper batteries, cheaper electric cars.
  • More electric bus fleets and electric taxis being rolled out globally.
  • Some electric trucks start to appear, and many more electric bikes.
  • General Motors (GM) plans to release the first ever autonomous robot taxis in 2019. Alphabet Google (GOOGL) (GOOG) China's Baidu (BIDU) have already launched autonomous vehicle fleets in 2018.
  • My forecast is for electric car market share (of new vehicle sales) to rise to ~3.5% globally by end 2019.

2020

  • Electric bikes, buses, trucks and taxis becoming common in larger cities.
  • Some electric semis may arrive on the scene, and the electric pickup truck should arrive.
  • Electric ships appearing on our rivers and oceans.
  • More autonomous and ride-sharing vehicles arriving.
  • My forecast is for electric car market share to rise to ~5% globally by end 2020.

Source

2022

  • BNEF forecasts by 2020 there will be over 289 different models of EV's across the spectrum.
  • Most new cars will be "connected smart" cars - giving online internet access. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) will be common place.
  • Electric bikes, trucks, ships and boats becoming increasingly common.
  • Hybrid electric planes starting to appear, initially in smaller planes. Larger planes starting to develop a balance between electric and conventional propulsion.
  • Autonomous vehicles becoming increasingly common especially on set routes and closed routes.
  • Electric cars likely to reach cost parity with ICE cars by 2022 (my forecast). Bloomberg forecasts by 2025. Envision sees US$100kWh battery by 2020.
  • My forecast is for electric car market share to rise to ~9% globally by end 2022.

2025

  • Many cities (London, Paris, Stuttgart, Mexico City, Madrid, and Athens) to ban ICE vehicles or at least diesel vehicles.
  • My forecast is for electric car market share to rise to ~15% globally by end 2025.

2030

  • Many countries (Netherlands, China, Germany, France, UK, Israel) to ban ICE vehicles or at least diesel vehicles either by 2030 or 2040.
  • My forecast is for electric car market share to rise to ~30% globally by end 2030. It is starting to look like it will be higher.

Some futuristic concept and planned electric cars

Porsche Taycan 2019

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A fully autonomous all-electric Chevy Bolt - Planned for 2019

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Skoda (Volkswagen Group) confirms nine electrified models by end of 2020

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The Audi e-tron GT concept car at the 2018 LA Auto Show

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Volkswagen I.D. Cargo Buzz concept EV

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BMW iNext exterior and interior

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2023 BMW i8 electric car

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Mercedes Smart Vision EQ fully autonomous concept car

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Toyota's concept e-Palette for ride sharing or logistics

Related image

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Conclusion

The past 4 years has seen a rapid increase in acceptance of EVs to the point now where ICE car manufacturers are in a rush to move to fully electric or risk being left behind.

2018 has seen an incredible amount of positive news for the electric vehicle sector. The lithium-ion gigafactory has moved from 25 to 66 highlighting the lithium-ion battery industry is preparing for millions more EVs - Or as Bloomberg forecast 11 million EVs to be sold pa by 2025, and 30 million EVs by 2030.

Of course in 2018 we had record electric car sales most likely to surpass 2 million and 2% market share, and near 70% growth on 2017 (results out soon). Added to this was an enormous movement towards electrification of the entire transport sector (bikes, jeepneys, tuk-tuks, rickshaws, cars, buses, trucks, trains, ships, planes, an even a helicopter). Ride sharing and autonomous vehicles also made large advances in 2018.

2019 will most likely be an increase on 2018, with a huge focus on China due to their new zero emissions credit scheme starting January 2019. China already account for about half all electric car sales and recent figures have their market share hitting 6.3% in November 2018. January 2019 may see a slow sales month for China as 2019 will see China subsidies reduce a further 20%. Back in the US Tesla is killing the competition with Model 3 a huge success. I expect this to continue in 2019, as we see further electrification and a bigger move towards electric trucks, buses, bikes and pickups. I also expect to see continued growth in charging networks, super fast chargers, and cheaper batteries.

By sometime in 2020 we may reach the holy grail of US$100kWh batteries. That will mean electric cars will reach purchase cost parity with ICE vehicles, and start a landslide movement towards mass market EV penetration.

As usual, all comments are welcome.

Disclosure: I am/we are long BYD CO [HK:1211], GOOG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: The information in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as personal financial advice.

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