This article was first published on Jan. 3, 2019; therefore, all data is as of that date.
It has now been almost 4 years since I wrote my first electric vehicle (EV) article back in March 2015 titled "Chinese Electric Vehicle Companies About To Boom." In this article, I update readers on 2018 EV events as well as what lies ahead.
EV news highlights 2015-2018
- Tesla Model S named best overall vehicle by consumer reports. Tesla Model X production begins.
- China electric car sales increased 223% in 2015.
- Global electric car sales reach 540,000 in 2015, up 70% on 2014, representing 0.6% of the global market share.
Tesla Model X production begins
- August 2016 - EV monthly news begins.
- The world's first self-driving taxi service was launched in Singapore, with human drivers as backup.
- Bloomberg wrote "Why Electric Cars Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think" , and I wrote "Electric Vehicles Will Be Affordable And Popular By 2020 - An EV Portfolio To Consider."
- BYD Co's (OTCPK:BYDDF) (OTCPK:BYDDY) global bus and taxi expansion continues. BYD enters into the monorail business. BYD ends 2016 as global No 1 electric car seller yet again.
- Lithium saw its price triple in 2016.
- Global EV sales finished 2016 at 774,000 for the year, up 40% on 2015, and representing 0.85% of the global market share.
EV costs declining graph
- 10 lithium ion gigafactories planned.
- Cobalt Price Has Tripled Since 2016.
- Tesla (TSLA) battery cell production begins at the gigafactory. Tesla begins production with of Model 3. Tesla Semi truck launched.
- Volkswagen (OTCPK:VLKAY) is investing 70 billion Euros into electric vehicles.
- September 10, 2017 - China to ban sale of fossil fuel cars in electric vehicle push. Regulators working on timetable for the ban. China joins U.K., France to phase out combustion-engine cars.
- September 2017 - I wrote - "The Electric Vehicle boom just went into overdrive - What stocks to buy." Subsequently from September to December 2017 most EV and EV metal related stocks boomed.
- Paris plans to banish all but electric cars by 2030.
- 2017 total year sales ended at a record 1,223,000, up 58% on 2016, and reaching ~1.4% market share.
Tesla Model 3 begins production
Tesla's semi-truck launched late 2017
Global electric cars sales grew 58% in 2017
Global electric car market share in 2017 - averaged ~1.4% and peaked at 2% in December
- Electric car sales continue to set new records in Q1 2018, with sales up 59% on last year.
- 25 Battery Megafactories announced or under construction with >1GWh production.
- China launches world's first all-electric cargo ship. Norway's first zero-emissions electric ferry "MF Ampere" launched, and world's first zero emission zone at sea.
- Port Liner plans to have 5 autonomous electric barges in the Netherlands.
- ICE car manufacturers rush to join the EV boom before the 2019 China ZEV credit system starts.
- VW Just Ordered $US48 Billion in Electric Car Batteries. In Euros the figure was 40b Euros.
- Boeing Co. (BA) backed startup Zunum Aero plans to deliver its first hybrid-electric plane in 2022 to JetSuite Inc.
- Bloomberg's latest forecast - Electric car sales to reach 30m by 2030 (28%), 60m by 2040 (55% market share).
- Bloomberg's latest forecast - Electric car sales forecast to increase 10 fold by 2025, 27 fold by 2030, and 54 fold by 2040, from end 2017 levels. You can listen to my Seeking Alpha audio interview on this topic here.
- Bloomberg's latest forecast - By 2030 electric buses will make up 84% of all new bus sales.
- July - China has 487 electric-car makers, and local governments are clamoring for more.
- Britain will require all cars to plug in and new homes to have chargers by 2040.
- China bans new fossil-fuel vehicle plants probably beginning in 2019.
- China's Baidu rolls out self-driving buses.
- Honda, Nissan and Toyota will all stop making diesel cars for Europe, and focus on electric instead.
- BMW expects EVs to make up 25 percent of sales by 2025.
- BNEF - "The number of EV models available is set to jump from 155 at the end of 2017 to 289 by 2022."
- August - I wrote "The Electric Truck Boom Is About To Begin", Daimler adds two electric trucks in race against Tesla, and VW.
- September - Bombardier introduces talent 3 battery-operated train.
- 180,000 electric jeepneys in the Philippines, electric tuk tuks in Thailand and electric rickshaws in India - Mission Electric.
- "Auto industry braces for electric shock." Fitch Ratings forecast global EV stock by 2040 of over 1 billion (half the global fleet).
- Norway's plan for a fleet of electric planes.
- India proposes a goal of 15% electric vehicles in five years.
- The Times.Co.UK - Electric cars rule. Demand for electric cars is soaring. One in 12 new cars is an electric car.
- Volkswagen plans 27 electric cars by 2022 on new platform. Porsche wants to be almost 100 percent electric by 2027.
- Tesla Model 3 completely crushing US luxury car competition in 2018.
- Luxury EVs from newer names Byton, Nio (formerly NextEV), Lucid Motors, Fisker, Dyson, and Rivian Automotive to name a few.
- Vivarail - Battery trains on track to cut emissions, and GE partners with BNSF to develop all battery-electric locomotive.
- Even the world's biggest miners are switching to electric vehicles.
- Israelis will no longer be able to buy new gasoline or diesel-powered vehicles after 2030.
- Daimler says 25% of models will be all-electric by 2025. Mercedes breaks ground on US battery factory.
- UBS - "The global market for electric vehicle batteries in 2025 could be 10 times bigger than in 2018."
- By 2025, China's leaders want 7 million cars sold every year, or about 20 percent of the total, to be plug-in hybrids or battery-powered.
- Waymo launches autonomous vehicles for public use in Phoenix Arizonia.
- Tesla hits 50% market share of new electric car sales in the US.
- December - Benchmark Minerals Megafactory update: Currently tracking 66 plants on the @benchmarkmin tracker, rapidly approaching 1.4TWh capacity by 2028.
- 2018 top electric car manufacturers will be Tesla, with BYD Co (OTCPK:BYDDY) at number 2 and BAIC (OTC:BCCMY) at number 3. Close behind will be BMW (OTCPK:BMWYY) and Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY).
- December - Year to date global electric car market share is now at 2.0%, and likely to exceed 2 million sales in 2018, compared to ~1.2m in 2017. 2018 should end up achieving about a 70% increase in sales on 2017. Battery electric vehicles will end up about 66% of all electric car sales.
A pictorial review of 2018
China is adding a London-sized electric bus fleet every five weeks
Norway's first zero-emissions ferry - The MF Ampere
World's first fully electric cargo ship
Autonomous electric barges planned for the Netherlands
A Bombardier Li-ion battery-operated train
Boeing Co. backed startup Zunum Aero plans to deliver its first hybrid-electric plane in 2022 to JetSuite Inc.
Baidu's autonomous mini-bus
Philippine electric jeepneys
Thai electric tuk-tuks
Indian electric rickshaws
BMW and Porsche now have 450kW FastCharge - 100kms in 3 minutes
A Google/Waymo autonomous car - Lidar and camera on the roof, radar near the bumper bar (front fender)
2018 - Car companies commitments to going electric from 2018 to 2025
Tesla Model 3 completely crushing US luxury car competition in 2018
Bloomberg's forecast annual electric vehicle sales - 30m by 2030, 60m by 2040
Source: Bloomberg research
Bloomberg's forecast annual electric vehicle sales showing market share - 11% by 2025, 28% by 2030, 43% by 2035, 55% by 2040
Note in the chart below Bloomberg is expecting Battery Electric Vehicles [BEVs] to grow by far the most.
Source: Bloomberg research
EV's future - 2019 and beyond
2018 really gives a good insight into what we can expect going forward. As the pictorial news above shows we can expect more electric vehicle of all shapes and sizes. Some of my thoughts for the next few years are listed below.
- More electric car models and with longer range. Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) manufactures rush to comply with the 2019 China ZEV system.
- Much more electric charging stations, more advancements in fast charging, more battery gigafactories, cheaper batteries, cheaper electric cars.
- More electric bus fleets and electric taxis being rolled out globally.
- Some electric trucks start to appear, and many more electric bikes.
- General Motors (GM) plans to release the first ever autonomous robot taxis in 2019. Alphabet Google (GOOGL) (GOOG) China's Baidu (BIDU) have already launched autonomous vehicle fleets in 2018.
- My forecast is for electric car market share (of new vehicle sales) to rise to ~3.5% globally by end 2019.
- Electric bikes, buses, trucks and taxis becoming common in larger cities.
- Some electric semis may arrive on the scene, and the electric pickup truck should arrive.
- Electric ships appearing on our rivers and oceans.
- More autonomous and ride-sharing vehicles arriving.
- My forecast is for electric car market share to rise to ~5% globally by end 2020.
- BNEF forecasts by 2020 there will be over 289 different models of EV's across the spectrum.
- Most new cars will be "connected smart" cars - giving online internet access. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) will be common place.
- Electric bikes, trucks, ships and boats becoming increasingly common.
- Hybrid electric planes starting to appear, initially in smaller planes. Larger planes starting to develop a balance between electric and conventional propulsion.
- Autonomous vehicles becoming increasingly common especially on set routes and closed routes.
- Electric cars likely to reach cost parity with ICE cars by 2022 (my forecast). Bloomberg forecasts by 2025. Envision sees US$100kWh battery by 2020.
- My forecast is for electric car market share to rise to ~9% globally by end 2022.
- Many cities (London, Paris, Stuttgart, Mexico City, Madrid, and Athens) to ban ICE vehicles or at least diesel vehicles.
- My forecast is for electric car market share to rise to ~15% globally by end 2025.
- Many countries (Netherlands, China, Germany, France, UK, Israel) to ban ICE vehicles or at least diesel vehicles either by 2030 or 2040.
- My forecast is for electric car market share to rise to ~30% globally by end 2030. It is starting to look like it will be higher.
Some futuristic concept and planned electric cars
Porsche Taycan 2019
A fully autonomous all-electric Chevy Bolt - Planned for 2019
Skoda (Volkswagen Group) confirms nine electrified models by end of 2020
The Audi e-tron GT concept car at the 2018 LA Auto Show
Volkswagen I.D. Cargo Buzz concept EV
BMW iNext exterior and interior
2023 BMW i8 electric car
Mercedes Smart Vision EQ fully autonomous concept car
Toyota's concept e-Palette for ride sharing or logistics
The past 4 years has seen a rapid increase in acceptance of EVs to the point now where ICE car manufacturers are in a rush to move to fully electric or risk being left behind.
2018 has seen an incredible amount of positive news for the electric vehicle sector. The lithium-ion gigafactory has moved from 25 to 66 highlighting the lithium-ion battery industry is preparing for millions more EVs - Or as Bloomberg forecast 11 million EVs to be sold pa by 2025, and 30 million EVs by 2030.
Of course in 2018 we had record electric car sales most likely to surpass 2 million and 2% market share, and near 70% growth on 2017 (results out soon). Added to this was an enormous movement towards electrification of the entire transport sector (bikes, jeepneys, tuk-tuks, rickshaws, cars, buses, trucks, trains, ships, planes, an even a helicopter). Ride sharing and autonomous vehicles also made large advances in 2018.
2019 will most likely be an increase on 2018, with a huge focus on China due to their new zero emissions credit scheme starting January 2019. China already account for about half all electric car sales and recent figures have their market share hitting 6.3% in November 2018. January 2019 may see a slow sales month for China as 2019 will see China subsidies reduce a further 20%. Back in the US Tesla is killing the competition with Model 3 a huge success. I expect this to continue in 2019, as we see further electrification and a bigger move towards electric trucks, buses, bikes and pickups. I also expect to see continued growth in charging networks, super fast chargers, and cheaper batteries.
By sometime in 2020 we may reach the holy grail of US$100kWh batteries. That will mean electric cars will reach purchase cost parity with ICE vehicles, and start a landslide movement towards mass market EV penetration.
As usual, all comments are welcome.
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Disclosure: I am/we are long BYD CO [HK:1211], GOOG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: The information in this article is general in nature and should not be relied upon as personal financial advice.
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