Tracking Ken Fisher's Fisher Asset Management Portfolio - Q4 2018 Update

|
Includes: AAPL, AAWW, ABB, ABBV, ABEV, ADBE, AMX, AMZN, ASML, ASX, AXP, AZN, AZPN, BA, BABA, BAP, BASFY, BBD, BBL, BBVA, BIDU, BNPQY, BP, BUD, CFRUY, CHE, CLF, CLGX, COF, COST, CRARY, CRM, CSCO, CTRP, CVX, DPZ, EWBC, FANUF, FCX, FNSR, GE, GOOG, GOOGL, GSK, HD, HDB, HEI, HELE, HRC, HSBC, INFY, ING, INTC, ISNPY, ITUB, JD, JNJ, JPM, LE, LFUS, LLY, LRLCY, LVMUY, MA, MELY, MRAAY, MRK, MS, MSFT, NSRGY, NTES, NVO, NVS, ORCL, PEP, PFE, PG, POOL, RBGLY, RDS.A, RIO, RJF, SAM, SAN, SAP, SBGSY, SCCO, SCGLY, SF, SFTBY, SIEGY, SIVB, SLB, SMCAY, SMFG, SMG, SNY, SSNLF, SSYS, STE, TCEHY, TDY, TOELY, TOT, TSM, TTC, TV, UBS, UN, UTX, V, VALE, VCISY, VECO, VOD, VRNT, VSH, WB, WMGI, WMT, WST, XOM, YELP
by: John Vincent
Summary

Fisher’s 13F portfolio value decreased from $82.37B to $73.22B in Q4 2018.

Visa Inc., Amazon.com, Apple Inc., Microsoft, and Pfizer are the largest five individual stock positions.

Fisher has substantial stakes in several ETFs/ETNs and hundreds of very small positions. They together account for more than one-third of the 13F portfolio.

This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Kenneth Fisher's 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Fisher Asset Management's regulatory 13F Form filed on 01/25/2019. Please visit our Tracking Kenneth Fisher's Fisher Asset Management Holdings article for an idea on his investment style and philosophy and our previous update highlighting the fund's moves in Q3 2018.

This quarter, Fisher's 13F portfolio value decreased ~11% from $82.37B to $73.22B. The number of holdings decreased from 870 to 866. Significantly large positions decreased from 69 to 66. The five largest individual stock positions are Visa Inc. (NYSE:V), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE). Together, they account for ~15% of the 13F stock portfolio.

To know more about Ken Fisher, check out his Research Papers (most notably in Behavioral Finance) and investment books.

Note 1: The portfolio saw a significant shift to Blue Chip Tech Stocks (Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE), and Salesforce.com (NYSE:CRM)) during the quarter. Last quarter had seen a focus on Materials (BHP (NYSE:BHP), Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), Rio Tinto plc (NYSE:RIO), Vale SA (NYSE:VALE), and several O&G majors).

Note 2: Fisher manages ~50,000 private client accounts and over 175 institutional accounts. Each such portfolio is personalized to client requirements and beating the S&P is not the focus for many of them. "13F Portfolio performance" which would be the performance of the sum total of all such monies in 13F securities is an unknown.

Stake Increases

Cisco Systems (CSCO), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), Salesforce.com (CRM), Itau Unibanco (ITUB), and Adobe Inc. (ADBE): These five positions saw large increases this quarter. The 1.62% CSCO stake saw a ~35% increase at prices between $40 and $49 and the stock is currently at $46.13. RDS.A is a ~1% of the portfolio position increased by ~70% this quarter at prices between $55.50 and $69.50. The stock currently trades near the low end of that range at $59.17. The CRM position saw a ~180% increase to a 0.64% portfolio stake at prices between $121 and $160 and the stock is now at ~$150. The 0.55% ITUB position saw a two-thirds increase at prices between $7.25 and $9.35 and it is now above that range at $10.01. ADBE is a 0.50% portfolio stake that saw a ~300% increase this quarter at prices between $205 and $275. The stock is now at $245.

AstraZeneca plc (AZN) and Vale SA (VALE): These two positions saw ~10% increases this quarter. AZN and VALE stakes are currently at 0.78% and 0.68% of the overall portfolio respectively.

Visa Inc. (V): The Visa position was first purchased in 2012 at much lower prices compared to the current price of ~$139. The size of the stake has more than tripled in the last six years through incremental purchases almost every quarter. The position is now the largest stake at 3.36% of the portfolio.

Amazon.com (AMZN): AMZN is the second-largest individual stock position at 3.33% of the portfolio. The stake is from 2011 and the stock price has risen over eight-fold during the holding period: the cost-basis is ~$200 compared to the current price of $1671. Q2 2016 saw a ~20% selling at prices between $586 and $728. There was another ~16% selling in Q2 2017 at prices between $885 and $1011. The three quarters thru Q1 2018 had seen a ~15% increase at prices between $935 and $1600 while the following quarter saw a similar reduction at prices between $1370 and $1750. There were minor increases in the last two quarters.

Apple Inc. (AAPL): AAPL is a top-three 2.75% individual stock position that was built-up in 2012 at prices between $60 and $72. The original stake was increased by ~60% in Q2 2013 at prices between $59 and $65. There was a ~9% trimming in Q2 2017 at prices between $141 and $156. The stock currently trades at ~$158. Last six quarters have seen a combined ~21% increase at prices between $144 and $233.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): MSFT is a top five 2.70% of the portfolio position. It is a very long-term stake that has been in the portfolio for well over a decade. Last six quarters have seen a combined ~22% increase at prices between $70 and $116. The stock is now at ~$107.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE): PFE is a very long-term 2.49% position that has been in the portfolio for well over a decade. The original stake was almost sold-out in the 2009-10 timeframe and was rebuilt in the next two years at prices between $17.50 and $25. The stock is currently at $40.64. Last four quarters have seen a ~15% increase at prices between $34 and $46.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL): GOOG was a very small position that was built-up to a substantial 2% stake in 2011 at prices between $242 and $301. The stock has more than tripled and currently trades at $1091. The position stands at 2.19% of the portfolio. There was a ~14% reduction in Q2 2017 at prices between $823 and $984. Q1 2018 saw a ~11% stake increase at prices between $1000 and $1176 and that was followed with minor increases in the last three quarters.

Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA): BABA is a 2.15% of the portfolio stake. The original position was from Q2 2015 at prices between $81 and $93. Q1 2017 saw a two-thirds increase at prices between $88 and $110. That was followed with a ~90% increase next quarter at prices between $107 and $144. The stock currently trades at ~$159. There was a ~12% stake increase over the last five quarters.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): JNJ is a ~2% of the portfolio position. Around two-thirds of the stake was purchased in 2008 at prices between $55 and $72 and most of the rest in 2011 at prices between $58 and $68. The stock currently trades at ~$128. There was a ~12% stake increase in Q1 2018 and that was followed with a similar reduction last quarter. This quarter saw a marginal increase.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): TSM is a very long-term 1.83% of the 13F portfolio position. A large block was purchased in 2012 at prices between $12.50 and $16.50. The stake was reduced by ~50% in Q2 2013 at prices between $17 and $20. The nine quarters thru Q2 2016 saw the position rebuilt (70% increase) at prices between $19 and $26. Q2 2017 also saw a ~22% increase at prices between $31.50 and $36.92. The stock currently trades at $38.14. There was a ~17% further increase in Q1 2018 at prices between $40 and $45 and that was followed with minor increases in the last three quarters.

Intel Corporation (INTC): The bulk of the 1.60% portfolio stake in INTC was built in 2008 in the high-teens. The position has seen consistent incremental buying since 2013. There was a ~10% stake increase in Q1 2018 at prices between $42.50 and $52.50 and the stock is at $47.04. Last three quarters have also seen minor increases.

American Express (AXP): AXP has been in the portfolio since 2012. The original position was around 9M shares and the current stake is 10.68M shares. Q3 2016 saw a ~10% reduction at prices between $59 and $66. Q1 2018 saw a ~14% reduction at prices between $88 and $102 and the stake is at 1.39% of the portfolio. Last three quarters saw a combined ~5% stake increase. The stock is now at ~$101.

Walmart Stores (WMT): The bulk of the 1.31% WMT position was purchased in Q2 2016 at prices between $65 and $73. Q4 2017 saw a ~45% stake increase at prices between $78 and $100 and that was followed with a ~12% increase next quarter. The stock is now at ~$97. Last three quarters also saw a combined ~5% increase.

Procter & Gamble (PG): PG is another long-term 1.30% of the 13F portfolio position that has been in the portfolio since before the financial crisis. The original position was increased by just over 75% in 2012 at prices between $60 and $70. There has since been a ~42% further increase thru periodic buying. The stock currently trades at $93.60.

Home Depot (HD): HD is a ~1% of the 13F portfolio position first purchased in 2012 at prices between $42 and $65. The three quarters thru Q1 2017 had seen minor increases. There was an about-turn in Q2 2017: ~38% selling at prices between $146 and $159. Q4 2017 saw another ~28% reduction at prices between $150 and $190. There was another reversal next quarter: ~14% stake increase at prices between $172 and $207 and that was followed with minor increases in the last three quarters. The stock is now at ~$180.

Tencent Holdings ADR (OTCPK:TCEHY): The ~1% TCEHY stake was mostly purchased in Q2 2017. The quarter saw a 13.5M share purchase at prices between $29 and $37. The stock is now at $44.06. Last six quarters have also seen incremental purchases. The current position is at ~19.3M shares.

UBS AG GRS (UBS): UBS is a 0.83% of the 13F portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $17 and $21.50. The original stake was reduced by around one-third in Q4 2013 at prices between $19 and $22. Q1 2014 saw an about-turn as the position was increased by ~37% at prices between $18.50 and $21.50 and the following quarter saw an additional 47% stake increase at prices between $18 and $21.50. In Q4 2014, the pattern reversed as the position was reduced by ~40%. The three quarters thru Q4 2017 had seen a two-thirds stake increase at prices between $12.25 and $23. The stock currently trades near the low end of those ranges at $13.10. Last two quarters saw minor increases.

Total SA (TOT), BHP Billiton (BBL), Rio Tinto (RIO), and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): These positions saw large increases last quarter and incremental buying this quarter. The 1.20% TOT stake was mostly purchased last quarter at prices between $59 and $65. The stock is currently below that range at $54.21. The small positions in BHP, Rio Tinto and Freeport McMoRan had also seen large increases last quarter.

PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), Softbank Group ADR (OTCPK:SFTBY), Sanofi ADR (SNY), SAP AG ADR (SAP), HSBC plc (HSBC), Oracle Corporation (ORCL), Novo Nordisk AS ADR (NVO), Novartis AG ADR (NVS), Merck Inc. (MRK), Siemens AG (OTCPK:SIEGY), L'Oreal Co. ADR (OTCPK:LRLCY), Costco Wholesale (COST), GlaxoSmithKline plc ADR (GSK), LVMH Moet Hennessy ADR (OTCPK:LVMUY), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Chevron Inc. (CVX), ING Groep NV ADR (ING), United Technologies (UTX), HDFC Bank (HDB), Eli Lilly (LLY), Banco Santander SA ADR (SAN), BNP Paribas ADR (OTCQX:BNPQY), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Infosys Inc. (INFY), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFG), ASML Holdings (ASML), and Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB): These small positions (less than ~1% of the 13F portfolio) were increased this quarter.

Stake Decreases:

Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ADR (BUD) and Vodafone plc (VOD): These small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) positions saw reductions this quarter.

The portfolio has several positions in different ETNs and ETFs - they account for around 15% of the 13F portfolio. Fisher also had large stakes in the following businesses per the latest 13G filings: Stratasys Ltd. (SSYS) - 5.2%, Atlas Air (AAWW) - 2.3%, Wright Medical (WMGI) - 2.4%, and Veeco Instruments (VECO) - 3%.

Below are positions sized in the 0.1% to 0.5% range in the portfolio: ABB Ltd (ABB), ASE Technology (ASX), AbbVie Inc. (ABBV), Ambev (ABEV), America Movil (AMX), Aspen Technology (AZPN), BASF SE ADR (OTCQX:BASFY), BP plc (BP), Baidu Inc. (BIDU), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA), Banco Bradesco (BBD), Boeing Company (BA), Boston Beer (SAM), Capital One Financial (COF), Chemed Corp. (CHE), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Compagnie Financiere Richemont (OTCPK:CFRUY), CoreLogic Inc. (CLGX), Credit Agricole (OTCPK:CRARY), Ctrip Inc. (CTRP), Dominos Pizza (DPZ), East West Bancorp (EWBC), Fanuc Corp. (OTCPK:FANUF), Finisar (FNSR), General Electric (GE), Grupo Televisa SA (TV), Heico Corp. (HEI), Hill-Rom Holdings (HRC), Integer Holdings (ITR), Intesa Sanpaolo Spa ADR (OTCPK:ISNPY), JD.com (JD), Lincoln Electric (LE), Littelfuse Inc. (LFUS), Mastercard Inc. (MA), Mitsubishi Electric (OTC:MELY), Morgan Stanley (MS), Murata Mfg (OTCPK:MRAAY), Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY), NetEase Inc. (NTES), Pool Corp. (POOL), Raymond James Financial (RJF), Reckitt Benckiser (OTCPK:RBGLY), SMC Corp Japan (OTCPK:SMCAY), SVB Financial (SIVB), Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF), Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB), Schneider Electric (OTCPK:SBGSY), Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG), Societe Generale France (OTCPK:SCGLY), Southern Copper (SCCO), Stifel Financial (SF), Teledyne (TDY), Tokyo Electronics (OTCPK:TOELY), Toro Co (TTC), Unilever NV (UN), Verint Systems (VRNT), Vinci SA (OTCPK:VCISY), Vishay Intertechnology (VSH), Weibo Corp. (WB), West Pharmaceutical (WST), Yelp Inc. (YELP), Credicorp Ltd. (BAP), Helen of Troy (HELE), Steris plc (STE), and Wright Medical Group (WMGI).

The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Fisher's 13F stock holdings (only positions that are over 0.5% of the 13F portfolio each are individually listed) in Q4 2018:

Kenneth Fisher - Fisher Asset Management

Disclosure: I am/we are long ABBV, AZN, BABA, GE, GSK, INTC, JD, SFTBY, TV. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.