Global Equities Neutral For Remainder Of Q1, Or Are The Bulls Back?

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Includes: EEM, EWZ, SOXX, SPY, UUP, VEU, VT, VTI, VTSAX, VWO, VXUS, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLY
by: Sven Roering
Summary

Global equities were disasterous in 2018. In the absence of a recession, 2019 is surely to be an improvement, but selective allocations will be key.

A pause from the Fed, with a softer USD could revive sentiment and extend the cycle.

Valuations are the most attractive in 3-years. But what will be the triggers for multiple expansions?

A number of key events lie ahead. Postive outcomes will continue to boost sentiment and drive equities to the upside.

While 2018 saw the return of volatility to all asset classes, and the worst December for US equities since the great depression, will the start of 2019 offer some respite for investors, and some buying opportunities at more attractive valuations, or are we at the beginning of a prolonged bear market (as it relates to developed market equities, at least) with sideways moves in indexes to look forward to while the market awaits continued upside surprises in valuations?

2018 in Review

Deutsche Bank says 89% of asset classes were down in 2018. This was a stark contrast with 2017, which was characterised by non-existent volatility and a firm upside trajectory in most assets. With the worst year for most asset classes since 2009, with the S&P down -6.24%, NASDAQ -5.44%, FTSE 100 -14%, DAX -18%, Nikkei -12%, Hang Seng -16%, MSCI -15%, Oil -30%.

There was certainly nowhere to hide in any asset class, except, perhaps on the short-side. Even shorts would have been tough to maintain, as price moves seemed to be characterized by very abrupt short-term drops, while being range-bound for the majority of the year without a clear trend.

Looking at the S&P since 2009, we see that this cycle has been characterised by many more corrective phases than any other. While this could be seen as healthy, as investors have treated the cycle with consistent periods of skepticism and price corrections, preventing a full-blown asset bubble, it has been a tough ride with large bouts of volatility preceded by extended periods of complacency.

Bear markets and corrections since 2009, Courtesy of Yardeni Research

This cycle has been clearly less complacent than the previous one, as seen below with a mere 2 corrective phases between 2002 and the massive bear market in 2008. We think this cycle has been a lot healthier, with consistent re-pricing and mean reversions, avoiding a clear speculative bubble getting out of control.

Bear markets and corrections since 2001 - 2009, Courtesy of Yardeni Research

Looking outside of the US, global equity markets around the world were battered, as illustrated by the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF, which saw a decline of around 23% since the beginning of 2018.

Emerging markets bore the brunt of the global equity sell-off during 2018, seeing a 30% drop from February as illustrated of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF. As stronger Dollar and acceleration in Fed hawkishness saw the all important carry trades fade for foreign investors, leading to flows exiting most markets while fundamentals in select regions, particularly Asia EM ex-China, remained strong.

Starting 2019: The Macro Story

With slower economic growth, earnings & revenues priced into assets toward the end of 2018, along with a number of prominent corporate management teams guiding for lower revenues and profit estimates, the key story would be whether data going forward will begin, once again, to surprise expectations on the upside, leading to an equity resurgence and multiple expansion. On the other hand, re-pricing and multiple contractions in 2018 were justified and we saw sentiment and data dissapoint, with range-bound equity markets.

From our perspective, portfolio construction as it relates to equities will likely favour markets that starting re-pricing a lot earlier in 2018 relative to the US, like Asia EM, as the negative sentiment that dictated 2018 could finally have reached bottom, and with the assistance of a softer USD could see sentiment return and drive asset prices higher during 2019.

Overall macro risks are not new, once again focus will be on the US-China trade talks, the dynamics of which seem to change from week-to-week depending on stock market moves, Trump’s border wall dispute, China’s economic slowdown (which is certainly not new), and the continued pressure on the existence of the European Union. Outside of geopolitics, the biggest headwind is certainly the presence of a potential near-term is recession after, what is widely perceived as peak growth in 2018, however, consensus seems to be that a recession is not immanent, with Goldman Sachs mentioning the probability of US recession is around 20% in 2019, relatively low. UBS does not expect a recession and Deutsche Bank sees no signs of a recession.

We know that recessions stem from two things: 1) policy errors e.g. Federal Reserve hiking rates too aggressively and tightening credit cycle too quickly 2) the economy overheating, often precipitated by an asset bubble in one or a number of asset classes.

Credit conditions are a very big indicator of where we are in the economic cycle. When looking at the US, the consumer looks healthy, while corporates and the government could be looking very ill. Outside of the US, Chinese credit conditions worsened sharply in 2018, with a strew of corporate bankruptcies, issues in consumer credit markets meant the debt binge the country enjoyed over the last 6 years is likely over. PBOC will likely push through stimulus and further regulations to curb consumer and corporate credit issues, which will be key to drawing positive sentiment back to the countries equity markets.

i). US Corporate Credit

US private sector debt has been somewhat concerning considering current private US debt to GDP is 202.8%, above the long-term average of 189%. The ability of firms to finance these substantial obligations certainly came into question during 2018 as US high-yield default rates spiked to around 3.5% toward the end of the year, just after a deterioration in spreads.

Source: Moody’s Investor Services

This, of course, led to liquidity drying up, with new high yield issuances declining around Q’3 of 2018, narrowly preceding the decline in equities.

Source: Moody’s investor Services

The above illustrates further how late in the cycle we are. We find ourselves constantly torn between the bulls and the bears, as the arguments from both sides remain compelling. The markers in the credit markets and business cycle clearly indicate how late in the cycle we are, however, it’s difficult to find signs of an asset bubble (outside of digital currencies beginning 2018), which is the mainstay of any definitive end to bull market and subsequent market collapse. We’ve hypothesized for many months that a blow off top for US, and global equities, is still possible considering how low interest rates are historically, and with the US and global economic story remaining relatively strong.

The US consumer remains relatively healthy, with The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 98.3 in December of 2018 from a preliminary of 97.5 and 97.5 in November, final estimates showed. The Sentiment Index averaged 98.4 in 2018, the best year since 107.6 in 2000.

US average hourly wages and US wage growth have maintained strong trajectories, though the pace of wage growth could have plateaued in late 2018.

US Average Hourly Wages (NASDAQ:BLUE), US Wage and Salary Growth (Black), Courtesy Trading Economics.com

Total consumer credit outstanding in the US has also seen a relatively rapid increase, at a compound annual growth rate of 4.97% since the beginning of 2014 to a total of 3.9 Trillion USD

Source: YCharts, St. Louis Federal Reserve

While that may seem like a frightening statistic, the key is that delinquency rates remain low and consumers do not begin to suffer. If consumers suffer, defer expenditures and delinquency rates spike, it could lead to a contraction in GDP. This fact is one of the key reasons the market sold off toward the end of last year, as it perceived the Fed as having made a policy error by continuing it’s rate hike trajectory (though this can be confusing as MPC members have been pretty open about this trajectory)

Delinquency rates on US consumer loans, All Commercial Banks. St. Louis Federal Reserve

As seen from the chart above, high levels of consumer debt remain manageable if delinquency rates remain structurally low, as they have since 2012. This illustrates how important it is for the Fed not to err and make a policy error by tightening credit markets too early, as the blowback on the consumer and corporate side could be swift and unpleasant.

The conclusion we take from the corporate and consumer credit side is that cycle is very late, and will likely take a number of data surprises and a solid US earnings season for US equities to head above potential resistance & consolidation at the 2 633 - 2 700 level for the S&P 500.

iShares S&P 500 ETF (S&P 500 index proxy) with potential near-term resistance & consolidation at 2 633 - 2 700 level?

Regional Valuations

2018 saw risk premiums decline broadly across most regional markets, as returns disappointing and fixed income spreads deteriorated.

G20

Risk Premium '16

Risk Premium '17

Risk Premium '18

United States

6.25%

5.69%

5.08%

Euro Area

7.49%

6.81%

5.08%

China

7.96%

7.25%

5.73%

Japan

6.70%

5.99%

5.18%

Germany

6.31%

5.76%

5.08%

United Kingdom

6.82%

5.97%

5.14%

France

6.73%

6.08%

5.11%

India

8.91%

7.39%

6.06%

Italy

8.63%

7.95%

6.68%

Brazil

11.15%

9.64%

7.62%

Canada

6.25%

5.69%

5.08%

South Korea

6.74%

6.05%

7.61%

Russia

9.72%

8.25%

6.92%

Spain

7.90%

6.76%

5.77%

Australia

6.54%

5.83%

5.08%

Mexico

8.88%

7.93%

6.72%

Indonesia

9.16%

7.99%

6.38%

Turkey

9.85%

9.46%

7.68%

Netherlands

6.38%

5.85%

5.08%

Switzerland

6.50%

5.84%

5.09%

Saudi Arabia

8.52%

7.01%

6.36%

Argentina

12.56%

11.55%

8.76%

South Africa

10.39%

8.75%

7.61%

Singapore

6.25%

5.69%

5.08%

EM

Vietnam

9.82%

8.43%

6.79%

Poland

7.65%

6.66%

5.65%

Taiwan

7.20%

6.55%

5.78%

Thailand

7.99%

6.80%

5.62%

Philippines

7.94%

7.20%

5.88%

Malaysia

Hong Kong

6.66%

5.94%

5.41%

Data Courtesy of Damodaran Online

With an illustration of the broad declines in premiums below:

Data Courtesy of Damodaran Online

The takeaway from the above is that as risk premiums have declined, so have required returns, implying intrinsic values have expanded, leaving us in the most attractive valuation environment in the last 3 years.

An interesting arbitrage scenario sees Italian assets commanding an additional premium to that of India, implying that investors see Italian assets, a developed market, as riskier than those of India, an emerging market. This is obviously a function of the debt and political issues prevalent in Italy, and by extension the European Union in general, and illustrates the inherent value in emerging markets relative to many developed markets.

Also, quite noticeable, is the expansion in premiums for South Korea, along with earnings forecasted to contract during 2019, is an example of a country whose assets have been plagued by trade issues and slow domestic activity.

Most regional PE multiples contracted during 2018, with valuations very attractive in a number of areas:

G20

PEG

P/E(1)

5 Year Average P/E (1)

United States

2.01

14.1

26.8

Euro Area

1.28

11.1

16.5

China

9.95

13.9

Japan

5.36

11.28

22.4

Germany

1.22

11.3

16.4

United Kingdom

1.9

10.9

14.6

France

1.46

11.6

18.6

India

0.87

16.8

21.7

Italy

15.8

Brazil

0.71

14.9

14.7

Canada

1.65

12.5

19.1

South Korea

-7

7.8

12.3

Russia

-10.2

5.1

6.4

Spain

10.34

12.3

Australia

3.17

13.95

17.3

Mexico

0.96

12.61

18

Indonesia

1.4

14.49

18.2

Turkey

0.67

6.03

7.8

Netherlands

1.5

13.19

21.6

Switzerland

1.44

14.42

22.9

Saudi Arabia

1.69

13.82

NI

Argentina

1.28

9.68

NI

South Africa

0.78

11.7

16.9

Singapore

2

11.7

12.8

EM

Vietnam

0.83

15.2

Poland

1.5

10.5

11.9

Taiwan

30.5

12.2

18.8

Thailand

3.3

13.4

18.1

Philippines

1.4

15.1

18.9

Malaysia

4

15.8

15.3

Hong Kong

2.12

13.9

15.1

MSCI World

2.01

13.7

NI

The current context sees Japan, Australia, Taiwan and Malaysia with some of the most richly valued markets relative to earnings growth prospects going into 2019, and India, Brazil with some of the most attractively valued assets going into the year, relative to earnings projections.

Earnings projections have been adjusted to the downside for most markets, with a sharp earnings deceleration forecast for the MSCI World Index. Earnings have been revised upward in pockets, like: Germany, India, Mexico, Argentina, and mostly emerging nations who had a tough time in 2018.

Global Industry Valuations

2018 saw broad industry performance decline, save for a few defensive industries like life insurance, tobacco and pharmaceuticals, with the biggest declines in value experienced in the fossil fuels of coal, oil and gas, as commodities experienced a broad decline, with the most pain felt in steel prices, hit by newly approved reciprocal trade tariffs, instituted by the Chinese and Americans.

Global Industries

2018 Performance

(IBIS WORLD) %

2017 Performance

(IBIS WORLD) %

Aerospace/Defense

-0.7

0.7

Air Transport

5.1

4.8

Apparel

1.2

4.2

Auto Parts

3.2

5.2

Beverage (OTCPK:SOFT)

0.5

0.7

Brokerage & Investment Banking

5.9

15.2

Coal & Related Energy

3.8

40.8

Drugs (Pharmaceutical)

2.6

1

Electronics (Consumer & Office)

2.7

1.6

Hotel/Gaming

3.5

4.9

Insurance (General)

2.1

0.9

Insurance (LIFE)

5

6.8

Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration)

2.1

14.8

Packaging & Container

3.7

-0.2

Publishing & Newspapers

-6.9

-6.1

Real Estate (Operations & Services)

3.2

3.8

Reinsurance

1.8

-1.4

Retail (Automotive)

4.2

3.1

Steel

-10.1

23.4

Telecom (Wireless)

2.9

0.5

Tobacco

2.2

2.9

Trucking

0

10.9

Select Global Annual Industry Performance, 2017 vs 2018

Looking at valuation multiples over the last 4 years, there are some interesting takeaways relating to how various industries have performed:

Global Industries

P/E '15

P/E '16

P/E'17

P/E'18

CAGR

Shoe

21.43

28.09

49.7

195.29

108.87%

Packaging & Container

37.09

43.23

52.15

185.3

70.95%

Environmental & Waste Services

165.9

107.09

91.52

731.55

63.98%

Retail (Online)

72.27

56.87

79.04

248.98

51.03%

Green & Renewable Energy

42.41

86.7

188.53

74.12

20.45%

Publishing & Newspapers

55.12

47.31

56.22

95.94

20.29%

Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration)

22.35

111.54

68.56

37.98

19.33%

Broadcasting

39.81

46.09

72.63

66.48

18.64%

Brokerage & Investment Banking

90.39

88.22

59.12

142.38

16.35%

Business & Consumer Services

44.48

56.26

80.63

68.2

15.31%

Telecom (Wireless)

27.37

24.56

55.88

41.62

14.99%

Advertising

41.24

130.61

65.74

60.73

13.77%

Healthcare Information and Technology

59.42

103.57

247.4

85.5

12.90%

Insurance (Prop/Cas.)

18.93

28.51

97.72

25.85

10.94%

Healthcare Support Services

67.07

89.83

66.38

91.2

10.79%

Software (System & Application)

107.81

134.92

98.42

145.43

10.49%

Software (Entertainment)

50.72

51.93

43.97

67.77

10.14%

Engineering/Construction

50.86

43.09

90.69

64.59

8.29%

Retail (General)

39.03

55.85

57.13

48.34

7.39%

Utility (General)

25.3

27.07

25.33

30.29

6.18%

Oil/Gas Distribution

54.7

103

45.6

65.37

6.12%

Reinsurance

16.9

191.01

15.63

20.1

5.95%

Oil/Gas (Integrated)

21.6

30.09

90.67

25.23

5.31%

Oilfield Svcs/Equip.

33.13

98.99

80.4

38.69

5.31%

Retail (Building Supply)

31.98

69.56

31.93

33.55

1.61%

Semiconductor Equip

49.19

68.37

56.76

51.59

1.60%

Building Materials

45.6

108.03

43.51

46.33

0.53%

Retail (Special Lines)

39.5

67.88

47.74

39.12

-0.32%

Electrical Equipment

74.03

133.04

74.87

72.48

-0.70%

Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities

41.44

60.83

49.95

40.32

-0.91%

Banks (Regional)

23.46

20.4

29.82

22.3

-1.68%

Transportation (Railroads)

25.43

28.03

64.04

24.11

-1.76%

Financial Svcs. (Non-bank & Insurance)

131.01

367.76

125.13

121.87

-2.38%

Electronics (Consumer & Office)

46.46

48.35

83.75

42.69

-2.78%

Shipbuilding & Marine

43.11

33.27

253.46

37.7

-4.37%

Electronics (General)

64.32

72.14

65.23

55.4

-4.85%

Insurance (General)

21.78

24.89

35.4

17.99

-6.17%

Insurance (LIFE)

16.57

31.43

93.18

13.59

-6.40%

Hotel/Gaming

93.58

155.06

80

73.64

-7.68%

Entertainment

159.38

828.88

167.12

125.32

-7.70%

Trucking

25.76

35.26

30.4

20

-8.09%

Precious Metals

67.57

113.78

40.05

52.26

-8.21%

Power

31.31

42.6

28.08

23.62

-8.97%

Bank (Money Center)

19.24

19.21

22.25

14.4

-9.21%

Air Transport

32.58

19.91

48.06

24.03

-9.65%

Metals & Mining

68.57

154.49

90.13

50.3

-9.81%

Restaurant/Dining

73.93

624.57

58.18

53.2

-10.39%

Transportation

38.65

66.88

48.28

27.55

-10.67%

Chemical (Diversified)

29.74

42.81

43.61

20.64

-11.46%

Recreation

63.49

61.74

49.4

43.15

-12.08%

Drugs (Pharmaceutical)

78.71

98.26

81.7

51.22

-13.34%

Food Processing

78.11

63.79

62.31

50.24

-13.68%

Steel

51.26

89.95

49.72

32.57

-14.03%

Chemical (Basic)

83.56

62.69

48.96

52.65

-14.27%

Computer Services

70.93

47.16

71.6

43.36

-15.13%

Diversified

36.93

1180.12

91.98

22.27

-15.51%

Machinery

62.55

62.88

74.74

37.6

-15.60%

Homebuilding

26.5

50.35

194.58

15.91

-15.64%

Beverage (Alcoholic)

107.53

62.82

66.44

64.24

-15.78%

Information Services

80.22

48.09

56.01

47.66

-15.93%

Household Products

93.28

348.87

62.8

54.29

-16.51%

Farming/Agriculture

61.02

67.32

173.54

35.41

-16.59%

Furn/Home Furnishings

47.41

45.26

44.32

27.28

-16.83%

Real Estate (Development)

95.7

73.01

86.16

54.13

-17.30%

R.E.I.T.

124.61

55.7

37.36

70.29

-17.37%

Rubber Tires

37.75

27.34

23.51

21.14

-17.57%

Auto & Truck

44.37

48.92

61.7

24.69

-17.75%

Real Estate (Operations & Services)

68.45

57.74

123.75

36.6

-18.83%

Aerospace/Defense

87.12

61.28

71.66

44.61

-20.00%

Beverage (OTCPK:SOFT)

62.75

36.69

163.65

31.91

-20.18%

Auto Parts

51.64

126.52

84.05

26.15

-20.29%

Healthcare Products

119.57

105.09

95.65

60.14

-20.47%

Tobacco

90.81

21.2

54.85

43.18

-21.95%

Utility (Water)

89.53

57.44

45.28

42.22

-22.16%

Retail (Automotive)

47.3

29.52

38.46

22.15

-22.34%

Office Equipment & Services

71.05

36.86

196.68

32.76

-22.74%

Chemical (Specialty)

71.64

49.21

61.38

32.96

-22.80%

Telecom. Services

125.47

78.43

39.49

57.02

-23.12%

Telecom. Equipment

170.89

101.37

89.81

76.18

-23.61%

Real Estate (General/Diversified)

98.46

141.21

69.48

43.54

-23.81%

Coal & Related Energy

116.43

103.17

60.41

47.86

-25.65%

Apparel

73.21

65.63

95.34

30.04

-25.69%

Investments & Asset Management

166.49

109.41

114.89

66.39

-26.40%

Semiconductor

152.84

77.35

80.59

57.36

-27.87%

Software (Internet)

171.21

113.92

145.42

63.91

-28.00%

Education

128.8

75.78

117.67

42.95

-30.65%

Paper/Forest Products

128.28

139.23

200.48

39.58

-32.43%

Food Wholesalers

127.58

46.51

90.7

35.91

-34.46%

Retail (Grocery and Food)

115.45

45.56

44.47

28.46

-37.30%

Retail (Distributors)

310.71

307.82

233.29

71.07

-38.84%

Construction Supplies

136.28

101.24

72.99

30.86

-39.05%

Computers/Peripherals

175.46

38.49

58.11

37.36

-40.29%

Cable TV

121.34

33.17

33.63

19.55

-45.59%

Drugs (Biotechnology)

894.78

275.61

205.63

121.27

-48.63%

Data Courtesy of Damodaran Online

No surprises to see shoes and online retail with significant multiple expansions over the last few years, as the former has enjoyed cyclical outperformance and the latter benefitting from the disruption of the brick-and-mortar alternative. What is interesting is how publishing & newspapers have experienced generous multiple expansion, in the face of being one of the most disrupted industries over the last decade. It’s likely this is a result of the shift toward online paid subscriber models, which provide the scale and convenience which didn’t exist in the days of having the morning paper delivered directly to your doorstep.

Integrated oil and gas plays present some great value, and with a return to 2018 highs for crude could see some excellent multiple expansion in the space, especially if asset demand returns from yield seeking investors. Retailers, grocers and cable TV have been clear losers over the past number of years as the most disrupted industries, culminated in the retail giant Sears filing for bankruptcy after 126 years in business. However, cable TV could look like an interesting value play with attractive multiples and solid sustainable growth rates. A tweak in business model could see some margin expansion returning to industry. Biotechnology continues to command significant multiples relative to other industries, as investors continue to be over enthusiastic about pipeline drug prospects with most players.

Key Theme: Fed and US Dollar

One of the big themes, particularly as it relates to emerging market asset performance, was the spike in value of the US Dollar, with the Dollar Index spiking 8.25% during the year. The consequence was a direct sell-off in EMs, as financing USD denominated debt, current account deficits and slowing earnings growth lead to capital flight from foreign investors and asset repricing.

The Fed has communicated, at least in the 1st three quarters of the year, that it would consistently commit to increasing interest rates at growth continued and unemployment declined.

The Fed’s Changing Story

At the December 19th meeting on monetary policy by the Federal Reserve board members, the story had clearly begun to change. With issues showing in US credit markets, what had now turned into a full blown bear market in equities across the globe, the members began to listen while the mantra had seemed to indicate they would be asset market agnostic and focus exclusively on their dual mandate of target inflation and unemployment.

The data revealed median Fed funds rate projections for 2019 decline to 2.9% from 3.1% in September, and from 3.4% to 3.1% in for both 2020 and 2021, with a clear trend illustration in the dot plots, with forecasts contracting for the next and in the long-run, with less uncertainty.

Source: Bloomberg, US Federal Reserve

With a more accommodative Fed, and inflation close to target with historically low unemployment, could we see inflation finally surprise after real wages finally started to grow in the US?

Courtesy of Chicago Federal Reserve

This would mean an even weaker USD, leading to a massive boon for emerging markets as the currency carries become favourable once again, freeing up room for stronger demographic and consumer fundamentals to filter through to earnings.

USD Index, Tracked By UUP ETF vs. Emerging Markets Index, tracked by EEM ETF

Since the end of 2018, the downtrend in the USD (red line) has been a clear boon for emerging markets (candlesticks), finally bringing an end to the year-long downtrend in EMs that we saw over the course of 2018.

How Will We Be Going About Equity Allocations For The Remainder of the Quarter?

Global Equities

Neutral

Developed Markets

Neutral

Emerging Markets

Overweight

Frontier Markets

Overweight

North America

Neutral

Latin America

Underweight

Europe

Underweight

Emerging Europe

Neutral

Middle East

Neutral

Africa

Neutral

Developed Asia

Underweight

Emerging Asia

Overweight

Frontier Asia

Overweight

Australasia

Underweight

Key Events For Equities to Push Higher

Date

What To Watch

Bullish Outcome

2 Feb

Global PMI

A snapshot of manufacturing health around the world. Could equities have priced a spike back toward 52 index level? Confirmation of the January rally would be great for equity sentiment

15 Feb

Next Round US/China Trade Talks

Further progress and concessions from Chinese, avoiding an additional US tariff hike on Chinese goods at the end of Feb. Trump/Xi direct meeting best case.

End Feb

US Personal Consumption Expenditures

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation. A surprise over 2% would send the Dollar lower and be a boon for equities, especially EMs.

Early Feb

Chile Copper Exports

Copper is always a leading indicator for growth and the economic cycle. A continued uptrend above $3.49B would be a positive signal that the growth cycle remains intact

Feb 31

China Manufacturing PMI

The continued downtrend in this number may not be a surprise, as the China slowdown is well documented. However a surprise spike back over +50% would provide great lift for equity sentiment

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.