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OneStrawRevolutionFarming2023 profile picture
It is about properly titrating and knowing the chemotypic content :-)
Harold Goldmeier profile picture
stories are emerging how little proper titrating there is. CBD ingredients aren't detailed, THC levels may not be correctly printed on labels, some mm companies don't have pro labs, etc. it's like whiskey in the wild West. People are going to get sick or die and lawyers will be on these companies like a feeding frenzy.
OneStrawRevolutionFarming2023 profile picture
It might be simply a matter of price points. GW Pharmaceuticals will sell to all the people who have health insurance, don't mind paying $32,500 a year, don't mind the terrible side effects that come with standardizing the dose, and who aren't inclined to read enough and take full control of their health regimen to try alternatives :-)
LMLLF and others will make equally effective products at much lower prices for all the millions who don't have insurance and who are desperate for relief and efficacy :-)
CNBX is a more affordable option as well :-)
However, the premise that Big Pharma is the "safer" route is perhaps tempered by the near inevitability that Big Pharma is going to lose hundreds of millions and perhaps billions when all of the opioid lawsuits come to the fore. These gigantic settlements which are compounded over a decade a half might cripple Big Pharma over the next 20 years.
It might be better to choose companies perhaps like LMLLF and CNBX which will have a choice to treat people with integrity and for Wellness.
Simply stated, the companies that make the most people Well are the ones which will gain the most profits. Companies that distribute poisonous opioids will have a reckoning :-) There are perhaps millions and millions of closet opioid addicts (Jamie Lee Curtis is the most recent) who will turn to Wellness products once the landscape provides them the chance. This is already happening in some of the west coast states, the mid-west, and in the northeast. Once these people can get off the opioids they will probably look for financial restitution :-)
Big Pharma has failed miserably and fatally at this and they will have to start to pay in massive settlements.
So, there is risk in both avenues.
I hope everyone does well :-)
Mukticat profile picture

You're just willfully ignoring the facts. There is almost no scientific evidence for the pain treating effects of cannabis. GWPH got a 1:1 THC/CBD drug (Sativex) approved in 2003 for muscle spasticity. It's also been tried for cancer pain and it failed miserably (as has the drug sales). So there goes the opioid replacement theory.

As for GWPH they state that Epidiolex is '$32,500/year' based but in fact that's for a child at the lower dose. It can easily go up to $80,000/year for an ave sized adult male at the higher dose level (20 mg per k). Wait and see what happens when Tilray/Sandoz and others start marketing OTC priced pharma grade CBD oil.

GWPH kaput.

Welcome to the new Cryptos . . . weed!!
OneStrawRevolutionFarming2023 profile picture
Except for the fact that in legal jurisdictions, opioid addicts are using it to reduce and eliminate their addictions. It is actually happening; no theory at all :-)
This clinic exists in AZ and there is another one in CA :-)
I hope everyone does well :-)
'Billg profile picture
imo once big pharma moves in to cannabis they will do very skinny long term deals with producers leaving little on table then heavily markup products made from cheap supply. imo big pharma winner producers generally losers on the pharma piece.
Harold Goldmeier profile picture
Here's why my why caveat for small investors holds water :)

Harold Goldmeier profile picture
Mrsupreme: see my response to Gordon. You're right about government needing more $ and seeing pot purchases as a source. Will its use skyrocket? I think it already has. Anyone who wants it can get it thanks to cartels, traffickers from where legal across state lines to locals where illegal, home growers, etc. For investors, the question is where is your money safest and secure for the long-term profits? The product is as popular as running shoes but do you put your money into Nike or a small start-up brand?
mrsupreme profile picture
Laced with Fentanyl or whatever. Not lab tested pure like a dispensary !
mrsupreme profile picture
Put money in V 4 years ago and payed off big .
mrsupreme profile picture
To much money for Government to make on taxes . It will happen over time then recreational use will SKYROCKET.
Gordon Shumway profile picture
This guy can’t see the smoke in the trees. Medical is great but it’s the recreational future that he doesn’t seem to grasp.
Harold Goldmeier profile picture
Gordon: I grasp it, I enjoy it, I think it should be totally legalized, but for investors, I think I made my case for where investors with limited investment funds ought to be directing their money for the long-term.
OneStrawRevolutionFarming2023 profile picture
I respect that you and your followers have made and will probably continue to make a lot of money. You are very good at explaining your positions and educating your followers. Short-term Big Pharma might survive.
However, there are millions and millions of people who simply don't trust Big Pharma anymore after and in the midst of the opioid crisis. They recognize that decisions have been made without ethics. That 4 people die every hour each 24 hours is one of the main reasons that people are looking for functional, non-addictive botanical, organic alternatives - they don't want the horrible side effects and death that come with the pharmaceuticals. It is not really an "either or or" situation.
What consumers will learn through the growth of the Wellness industry in all its forms and at all price levels is that outsourcing the dosing of our medications based on standardization that leads to terrible side effects in many cases is not the way millions of people want to continue :-)
Epidiolex is a great example. They standardize the CBD dose at 200 ml. This is great and life-saving for some. For others it leads to horrible side effects; we can read about these on the FDA website. If GW Pharma starts to join in the effort to micro-dose, that will help their patients who suffer from side effects and need to titrate. Many patients will learn how to titrate; those who resist label it "self-medicating" which has heretofore some negative connotations. But, this will be part of the educational process: patients will learn how to titrate and not outsource dosing based on standardization - we are all snowflakes and the Wellness industry is very responsive to this.
Epidiolex costs $32,000 a year! People without insurance and low-income people simply cannot afford these prices. IF GW Pharma can offer its great products at all price points then that would be a recognization of health needs for all demographics.
The Wellness industry offers the promise of allowing people to purchase products that relieve not only the symptoms (CW Hemp - I don't own their stock but wish I could afford it) but also save lives (CW Hemp again). We trust the integrity of people like the Stanley Brothers because long before they had a chance to make millions they simply helped a couple desperate to save the life of their toddler. The results speak for how people now make judgements about sourcing health products. Millions no longer see standardized as the scientific answer anymore. Single-molecule medications are clearly not the answer for everyone. If there are those who want to continue with the same path then they will have options.
The Wellness industry will provide patients the opportunity to custom-fit their treatments to what their needs are. Big Pharma is at a huge deficit because the doctors who support it don't have the medical nor pharmacological knowledge to understand how to use cannabinoids for health - it wasn't taught and they didn't study it at medical school. Single-molecule medicines do not activate the entire receptor system in our endogenous endocannabinoid systems. The results will show that our bodies run on cannbinoids; the endocannabinoid system is the largest and most neglected receptor system in the body. Doctors have to learn can can learn all of this :-)
There is going to be likely a mass migration which will probably feature people trading out the chemical reactions (in the form of medications) that have damaged them for other chemical/botantical/organic reactions that do not damage the body. Learning how to titrate for our bodies usually takes 4-6 weeks. Once we have completed this process we are no longer forced to medicate and pay based on standardization and doctors' needs :-)
For those of us who have directly and indirectly witnessed and experienced the death caused by the opioid crisis the trust is gone.
You are exceptionally talented at what you do and I respect that. However, there are millions who will want and need alternatives and many of us have been damaged by the opioid crisis and want other options :-)
Please, we can decide for ourselves if we are ready to do the reading :-)
I hope everyone does well :-)
Harold Goldmeier profile picture
Uain: but pot helps enough people that it has medical value. It hasn't been proven to cure anything but gives relief from symptoms & when you're sick or in pain cannabis is worth trying.
Mukticat profile picture
And so far nearly everything we've heard about the magic of weed is anecdotal.

Why hasn't Sativex taken off? With a 1:1 THC/CBD ratio it was launched in 2003 but it's still looking for a market (available in Europe) and FDA approval. It also failed testing for alleviating cancer pain which of pokes a large hole in the opiate replacement concept.
Uain53 profile picture
Hi Harold,
I want to first thank you for your article.
I may not be the most desireable spokes model, but I gave it up decades ago. If it didn't give me a splitting headache, I got dizzy and spent the night hugging the toilet.

I'll take a finger or two of fine scotch or sipping whiskey when I'm feeling down :-)
Uain53 profile picture
All the mj hype takes me back to my youth when ground peach pits were hyped and even marketed as Laitril.... a cure all for cancer.
Excellent article based on fundamentals - that I always seek as a baseline.

The current mj stocks like acb are story stocks far removed from any current or near-term valuations.
It is quite possible some big pharma might buy one of them .. or not.

Acb at 60M$ turnover and 8B valuation and no clear moat, growth path, or strategy for profits illustrates this well.
B_Banzai profile picture
Cannabis is not without problems. Not that misuse ever stopped a BP from chasing the cash.

Harold Goldmeier profile picture
BB: I pointed one out in the example of my son who quit using mm because of the long-term side effects he feels. All drugs, foods, air & water you put in your body have side effects; it's just a matter of weighing the risk/reward.
B_Banzai profile picture
Schizophrenia and paranoia are not your garden variety side effects. Which would you pick, the chronic pain reliever that has a 7% of inducing constipation or the one that gives you a 7% chance of developing Schizophrenia and paranoia?
Ironically this article just validated the huge growing value of the big cannabis players. I think eventually the big pharma will make big moves into cannabis because they cannot ignore the size of medical cannabis globally. But big pharma move much too slow to do much in the next 2 years while CGC, ACB, CRON, TLRY, APHA move at breakneck speeds. So big pharma will have to get in the game by buying or partnering big a few years down the road - as they normally do historically to catch up and get in the game.
Harold Goldmeier profile picture
YD...I don't know if big pharma will buy growers but cannabis-based pharma companies near to drug market stage will attract their attention. You make some good points.
Mukticat profile picture
Pot cutting into the profits of Big Pharma?? How so? Sativex has been a flop so far. Epidiolex is prescribed for two discrete conditions affecting a few thousand patients. What have I been missing?

You do realize that it took GWPH years of testing to get these approved. Given there's almost no drugs in the pipeline of these other companies how are they supposed to get them to market before the late 2020's?
Harold Goldmeier profile picture
Mukticat: How so? I personally people w/out health insurance who cannot afford retail prices for Vicodin, Ambien, etc. and smoke street pot or medical marijuana (also not covered by insurance in most states)--strains of choice (too many to name here). They are of course self-medicating & there's a risk in that from synthetic pot to it being cut with harmful drugs. But even pharma companies admit pot is their competitor, not alcohol.
Mukticat profile picture
@Harold Goldmeier

Your answer does not rebut my assertion that it's neither easy nor quick to get a drug approved by the FDA. Unless they're well into the pipeline (at least Phase II or III) it will be years before another non-GWPH drug (they have a pipeline) is approved. It's true people are experimenting and self-medicating with weed but how does that benefit Big Pharma? It merely undermines the rationale to expect that patients will pay super-high prices ($32,500 a year) for Epidiolex brand CBD oil. Likewise any other CBD approved drug would face the same problem.

Something else to consider is that CBD's are not a risk-free panacea. In fact GWPH saw a fairly high rate of AE's causing 12% of the high dose test group (20mg per kilo per day) to discontinue mainly due to adverse hepatic effects. Dravet's is a serious form epilepsy without good treatments so the FDA saw a definite value to Epidiolex but it's nowhere a given that they would approve it for lesser conditions.

Check out the adverse effects in the drug trials (starts page 7).


'In controlled trials, the rate of discontinuation as a result of any adverse reaction was 2.7% for patients taking EPIDIOLEX 10 mg/kg/day, ** 11.8% ** for patients taking EPIDIOLEX 20 mg/kg/day, and 1.3% for patients on placebo. The most frequent cause of discontinuations was transaminase elevation.

Discontinuation for transaminase elevation occurred at an incidence of 1.3% in patients taking EPIDIOLEX 10 mg/kg/day, 5.9% in patients taking EPIDIOLEX 20 mg/kg/day, and 0.4% in patients on placebo.

Somnolence, sedation, and lethargy led to discontinuation in 3% of patients taking EPIDIOLEX 20 mg/kg/day compared to 0% of patients taking EPIDIOLEX 10 mg/kg/day or on placebo.

The most common adverse reactions that occurred in EPIDIOLEX-treated patients (incidence at least 10% and greater than placebo) were somnolence; decreased appetite; diarrhea; transaminase elevations; fatigue, malaise, and asthenia; rash; insomnia, sleep disorder, and poor quality sleep; and infections.'
Harold Goldmeier profile picture
Mukticat: I agree wholeheartedly with you & my reply was only meant to enhance your well-taken points. It takes sometimes a decade for FDA approval and there appear to be few if any drugs "well into the pipeline" as you put it among other cannabis-based pharma companies let alone mm hot stock companies. Moreover, GWPH is likely to hit $200/share while MRK, for example, is $75. For all the reasons you give GWPH products do not justify the valuation of GWPH until you consider the rage over anything to do with cannabis. Thank you for your comments that significantly add to investors' knowledge for making wise decisions.
a detail: Solvay is based in Belgium, not The Netherlands
Harold Goldmeier profile picture
Solvay Pharmaceuticals B.V. operates as a pharmaceutical and drugs company. The company is based in Weesp, the Netherlands. Solvay Pharmaceuticals operated as a subsidiary of Solvay SA until it was acquired by Abbott Labs in 2009....
Solvay is a Belgian chemical company founded in 1863, with its head office in Neder-Over-Heembeek, Brussels, Belgium.
That’s hilarious, I’m making a killing each week in the Pot Sector and only playing with $5-$10k. I wouldn’t go near big pharm
Harold Goldmeier profile picture
Jeff: good for you. I'm happy too when people make money in the market but there are plenty who bought in at $300 per share that is now worth under $100. If you have time & not a lot of money to lose my recommendation is to stay away from growers, processors & distributors. Some people make money in Vegas too.
Edward J. Roche profile picture
Do not confuse speculation with investment. I have seen reports like this over many years, bitcoin is one of the latest examples that end badly.
Edward J. Roche profile picture
There has been a long history of Pharma investigation and investment in cannabinoids. re.g. as analgeics etc. Almost all of the compounds have failed in clinical trials.
Harold Goldmeier profile picture
ER: And yet medical marijuana advocates claim they get pain relief from smoking the "right" strain & mixture bought in dispensaries. They self-medicate of course & none are FDA approved. Big pharma relies on analgesics with opioids & that's the crisis right now. Hopefully, cannabis-based painkillers will prove less deadly & addictive.
Edward J. Roche profile picture
Well the key is that drugs need to go through clinical trials to get approved. Anecdotal evidence counts for nothing. And cannabinoids have largely failed in clinical trials.
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