Value And Fundamentals Propel 81 Dogs For January

|
Includes: ABBV, ARCC, AZN, EDPFY, EQNR, M, OAK, ORI, PK, PPL, SC, SKM, SNP, STX, TIGO, TOT
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

YCharts tracks ten point Value and Fundamental (V/F) scores for all their 21,846 equities. Dividend payers posting 6-10 points in both categories made this list.

Top ten broker target-estimated YChart V/F net gains as of 1/30/19 ranged 14.55%-30.74% from AZN, EQNR ARCC, SKM, ORI, SC, ABBV, SNP, TIGO & top dog TOT.

81 dividend-paying YChart Top V/F stocks ranged in estimated-yield from 2.55% to 10.22%. Top-ten, PPL, TOT, ABBV, STX, M, EDPFY, OAK, PK, ARCC, & top-dog SNP averaged 6.99%.

YChart top ten firms by broker target price upsides, ARCC, AZN, SNP, EQNR, SKM, SC, ORI, ABBV, TIGO, & top dog TOT averaged 18.53% in broker-estimated price only gains.

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five of ten top-yield YChart V/F dividend stocks showed 32.39% LESS net-gain than $5k invested in all ten.  High price big dogs ruled the January YChart V/F Pack.

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Forecast 14.55% To 30.74% Net Gains From January's YChart V/F Top Ten Dividend Dogs

Four of ten top yield YChart V/F dividend stocks were identified as being among the top ten net gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart above). So, our dogcatcher yield-based forecast for YChart V/F divi-dogs was graded by Wall St. brokers as 40% accurate.

Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1000 invested in each the high yield stocks and their aggregate one year analyst-estimated median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2019-20 data points. Note: one year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to January 30, 2020 were:

Total SA (TOT) was projected to net $307.43 based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from nine analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number 26% less than the market as a whole.

Millicom International Cellular SA (TIGO) was projected to net $421.50, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 1% less than the market as a whole.

China Petroleum & Chemical (SNP) was projected to net $234.33, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 57% more than the market as a whole.

AbbVie Inc (ABBV) was projected to net $31.96, based on target price estimates from seventeen analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 46% more than the market as a whole.

Santander Consumer USA (SC) netted $217.60 based on a median target price estimate from twenty-one analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 7% more than the market as a whole.

Old Republic International (ORI) was projected to net $215.91 based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 5% more than the market as a whole.

SK Telecom Co Ltd (SKM) was projected to net $211.28b , based on no target estimates from any analysts, just dividends, less broker fees. No beta was available for SMTA.

Ares Capital Corp (ARCC) was projected to net $202.15 based on the median of target price estimates from seventeen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 39% less than the market as a whole.

Equinor ASA (EQNR) was expected to net $193.81, based on dividends alone, no target price estimates from any analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 4% less than the market as a whole.

AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) was projected to net $145.51 based on dividends, plus a median of target price estimates from seven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 45% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 22.02% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 5% less than the market as a whole.

Source: ontariospca.ca

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

40 YCharts V/F Dogs By Broker Targets

Source: YCharts

This scale of broker estimated upside (or downside) for stock prices provides a scale of market popularity. Note: zero broker coverage or single broker coverage produced a zero score on the above scale. The broker upside score can be taken as an emotional component as opposed to the strictly monetary and objective dividend/price yield-driven report below.

81 YCharts V/F Dogs By Yield

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top YCharts V/F Dividend Stocks By Yield

Top ten YCharts Value/Fundamental dividend stocks selected 1/30/19 by yield represented eight of eleven Morningstar sectors. Top yielding stock, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (SNP) [1] was the the top of two energy firms in the top ten. The other placed ninth, Total SA (TOT) [9].

Second place revealed the first of two Financial Services representative headed by Ares Capital Corp (ARCC) [2]. The other financial representative placed fourth, Oaktree Capital Group LLC (OAK) [4]. In third place was the lone real estate representative, Park Hotels & Resorts Inc (PK) [3].

Two utilities placed fifth and tenth by yield, EDP - Energias de Portugal SA (OTCPK:EDPFY) [5], and PPL Corp (PPL) [10]. A lone consumer cyclical stock placed sixth. Macy's (M) [6], and the lone technology representative was seventh, Seagate Technology PLC (STX) [7].

Finally, the healthcare representative placed eighth, AbbVie Inc (ABBV) [8], to complete the YCharts Value/Fundamental top ten by yield for January.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top Ten YCharts V/F Dividend Dogs Showed 12.62% To 27.38% Upsides To January, 2020, With (31) No Downsiders

Source: YCharts

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became yet another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Predicted A 32.39% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced YChart V/F Of 10 Top Dividend Stocks To January, 2020

Ten top YChart V/F dividend dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, top ten YChart V/F dividend stocks represented seven of the eleven Morningstar sectors.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected 5 Lowest-Priced of the Top Ten Highest-Yield YCharts Value/Fundamental Stocks (32) To Fetch 9.95% Vs. (33) 14.72% Net Gains by All Ten by January, 2020

Source: YCharts

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten YChart V/F dividend kennel by yield were predicted to produce 32.39% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The eighth lowest priced YCHarts V/F top yield stock, Total SA (TOT), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 30.74%.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-price YCharts V/F top ten dividend stocks January 30 were: Ares Capital Corp (ARCC); Macy's Inc (M); Park Hotels & Resorts Inc (PK); PPL Corp (PPL); EDP - Energias de Portugal SA (OTCPK:EDPFY), with prices ranging from $16.25 to $36.49.

Five higher-priced YCharts V/F dividend stocks for January 30 were: Oaktree Capital Group LLC (OAK); Seagate Technology PLC (STX); Total SA (TOT); AbbVie Inc (ABBV); China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (SNP), whose prices ranged from $40.71 to $84.45.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your YCharts V/F dividend dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: ontariospca.ca

Disclosure: I am/we are long INTC, PFE. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.