Green Dot Portfolio: January 2019 Update

Feb. 04, 2019 6:28 PM ETAAPL, AGD, ALYI, AOD, AWF, BGX, BIT, C, CE, CHW, DBRG, CMA, CSQ, D, DFP, DSL, FAS, FAX, FDX, FEO, FRME, GE, GS, HBAN, HPS, HYT, KHC, KIO, LDP, LRCX, MIC, MO, MSD, NVG, OIH, PDI, PFXF, PPT, RA, RNP, SKT, SLB, SNV, SPXL, SPXS, SPY, SYF, TNA, TQQQ, UCO, UGLDF, USLVF, VLO23 Comments
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Green Dot Investor
2.01K Followers

Summary

  • Total realized cash return on portfolio investment for January from dividends and swing trades was +1.47% and has totaled +15.89% for the past 15 months.
  • Dividend income for January was $822, my highest month to date. Closed-end funds contributed 80.4% of dividends. Dividends contributed 42.6% of total portfolio income.
  • Swing trade income for January was $1,107.71. I closed 12 profitable swing trades (3 were flat) for a total gain of +6.6% (+44.9% annualized). I entered 1 new swing trade.
  • The SPY rose +8% in January and has retraced 61.8% of the overall market decline since the October high.  It closed at a directional inflection point.
  • The Elliott Wave pattern I'm following now suggests a high probability that the 2018 bear market has ended.  I look at the likely percentage declines of near term pullbacks.

Welcome to my January update for my Green Dot Portfolio, a small self-managed retirement portfolio created in a Roth IRA trading account.

January was the third month of my second year of my portfolio, and it was overall my most profitable, not only for year two but also since portfolio inception.

At the end of the first year of my portfolio in October, I reported that I had surpassed my initial goal to achieve a total realized annual return of at least +8% in cash income. I use high-yield dividend investments, including closed end funds, REITs, and dividend growth stocks, as well as swing trading of stocks, ETFs, and option premiums. For my first year, I was fortunate to realize total cash income of +12.76%. My goal for this second year is +10% in total cash income. My first challenge for this second year has been to profit from the bear market pullback that started in October.

1. Market Action and Pattern for January 2019

Readers of my previous updates know that I try to translate and synthesize information from technical analysts and Elliotticians (those who apply Elliott Wave theory) in order to understand the market pattern and to inform my investing/trading. I use the largest broad-market traders' index, the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY), to determine changes in the trend of the markets.

January was a rebound month for the bear market that lasted for most of the last three months of 2018. Looking at a daily chart of the SPY for the past six months (below), the SPY declined -20.47% from the high on September 20. Using a Fibonacci retracement (parallel horizontal black lines), the SPY ended January at just below the .618 retrace of the decline. That level also just pierced a trend line (gold line) that connects the October 3 high and the December 3 high, a line

This article was written by

Green Dot Investor profile picture
2.01K Followers
I am a retired self-directed investor/trader. In Green's Portfolio, I combine high-yield income investments with swing trading in a Roth IRA account. Until January 2017 I worked 44 years in land use planning and natural resource management in the mid-Atlantic US.

Disclosure: I am/we are long AAPL, AWF, BGX, C, CLNY, D, DSL, EMD, FAX, FDX, FEO, FLC, FRA, FRME, GE, HPS, HYT, JPS, KHC, KIO, LDP, MIC, MO, MSD, NVG, OIH, PFXF, RA, RNP, SKT, SLB, SNV, SPXL, SPXS, SYF, TNA, TQQQ, UCO, UGLD.. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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