Shot Show 2019: Cautiously Realistic

Feb. 05, 2019 8:10 AM ETSWBI, RGR, VSTO13 Comments
Maks F. S. profile picture
Maks F. S.


  • NSSF Shot Show 2019, the firearms and outdoor sports' industry's world largest expo has just concluded.
  • Despite many new products, there were no products that I believe, can spur the demand and get the industry out of the current slump.
  • American Outdoor Brands, Ruger and Vista Outdoor all had new product introductions that will help until the market turns.

Source: Ruger booth at Shot Show Media Day, taken by Author

And that's a wrap!

Last Friday marked the end of the annual NSSF Shot Show 2019. Just as before, the show was packed with both exhibitors trying to build awareness and attendees looking for the latest and greatest products.

As per the organizers, if you attended the show every day from morning until close, you would have only 22 seconds to visit each booth!

Exhibitors ranged in both company size and product categories. You would find smaller start ups like Havoc Tactical launching their Deflector Brake, an AR 15 accessory and established companies like Glock, Ruger (RGR), American Outdoor Brands (AOBC) and Vista Outdoors (VSTO) launching their newest iterations.

Just as diverse as the list of exhibitors were the individual company experiences of the past few years.

What was not diverse however was the general cautious consensus for the gun industry overall.

Tale of Two Cities

While we still do not have the full 2018 NICS data, we took a deep dive into the numbers in our previous article, "Shot Show 2019: What Did 2018 NICS Data Show?"

What we found was that despite a mass shooting in early 2018, background check data pointed to multi year lows for handgun transactions and decade lows for long guns.

We have to keep in mind that NICS data only points to volumes, it does not point to revenue or the average price for handguns. As any gun owner would know 2018 had brought decade low prices on common ammunition such as 5.56/223 rifle and 9mm Luger handgun calibers. As per one of my contacts who looks at the underlying excise tax data, the realistic picture is even worse when we factor in both transaction volume and price.

This was clearly evident

ChartData by YCharts

This article was written by

Maks F. S. profile picture
Intrepid Leader at an RIA.  My firm and I simplify the lives of busy clients by providing ongoing financial planning and asset management. this is done by providing our clients customized, ongoing comprehensive financial planning, and customized investment advisory services tailored to the clients' needs. As a fiduciary, we have a legal obligation to put the needs and interests of our clients above our own. Specialties: fee based comprehensive financial planning, retirement planning, life insurance and protection planning.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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