Your 50 Real Estate WallStars By Yield And Target Gains For February 2020

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Includes: AHT, AJX, ANH, CDOR, CHMI, CXW, DX, GEO, GNL, LMRK, MFA, NRZ, ORC, RC, SNH, UNIT, WMC
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

WallStars all show positive broker target prices. Cedar Hospitality showed top target gains, while Orchid Island Capital showed top yield.

Top net-gainers RC, SNH, GEO, NRZ, LMRK, AJX CXW, GNL, AHT & CDOR ranged 15.77%-44.5% 2/1/19. The top 50 WallStars by gains and yield represented 8 of 9 sector industries.

50 Top Real Estate WallStars by Yield ranged 6.74%-13.75%. Top ten, CHMI, MFA, GNL,SNH, ANH, NRZ, DX, UNIT, WMC, & ORC, averaged 12.32% yield.

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five February top-yield Real Estate stocks showed 21.06% LESS net gain than that from $5k invested in all ten.  Big high-price REITs led the February Real Estate sector.

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 15.77% To 44.5% Net Gains By Ten Real Estate WallStars Come February, 2020

Three of ten top dividend-yielding Real Estate stocks found their way into the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart above). Thus, our yield-based forecast for Real Estate sector stocks was certified 30% accurate by broker target forecasts.

Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1000 invested in each of the highest yielding stocks and their aggregate one year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2019-20 data points. Note: one year target prices from one analyst were not applied (n/a). Ten probable profit-generating trades projected by brokers to February, 2020 were:

Condor Hospitality Trust Inc (CDOR) was projected to net $445.09, based on dividends plus a median target estimate from five brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 71% less than the market as a whole.

Ashford Hospitality Trust (AHT) was projected to net $410.28, based on dividends, plus mean target price estimates from six analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 73% more than the market as a whole.

Global Net Lease Inc (GNL) netted $362.77 based on a median target price estimate from three analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 36% less than the market as a whole.

CoreCivic Inc (CXW) was found to net $324.62 based on the median target price estimate from two analysts plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 25% more than the market as a whole.

Great Ajax (AJX) was projected to net $269.03, based on dividends, plus a median target price estimate from five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 31% under the market as a whole.

Landmark Infrastructure (LMRK) was projected to net $253.79, based on target price estimates from five analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 13% less than the market as a whole.

New Residential Investment (NRZ) was projected to net $234.42 based on dividends, plus the median target price from estimates by nine analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate's volatility 10% above the market as a whole.

The GEO Group Inc (GEO) was projected to net $213.08, based on dividends, plus target price estimates from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 50% more than the market as a whole.

Senior Housing Properties (SNH) was projected to net $185.07, based on a median target estimate from nine analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 13% less than the market as a whole.

Ready Capital Corp (RC) topped the list with a projected net gain of $157.71, based on the median target price estimate from eight analysts, plus their estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 21% under the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 28.56% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these six stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 9% over the market as a whole.

Source: listingdoor.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

50 Top Real Estate WallStars By Target Gains

Source: YCharts

Top 50 Real Estate WallStars By Yield

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Yield Metrics Ranked 10 Top Real Estate WallStars

Top ten Real Estate Sector WallStars selected 2/1/19 by yield represented four of nine constituent industries.

The first of five diversified REIT industry representatives in the top ten took the top spot, Orchid Island Capital (ORC) [1]. The other four diversified members placed second, sixth, eighth and ninth: Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp (WMC) [2]; Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp (ANH) [6]; Global Net Lease Inc (GNL) [8]; MFA Financial (MFA) [9].

A single industrial REIT placed third, Uniti Group Inc (UNIT) [3], followed by three residential REIT representatives in the fourth, fifth and tenth spots, Dynex Capital Inc (DX) [4], and New Residential Investment Corp (NRZ) [5], and Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp (CHMI) [10].

To complete the top ten November Real Estate sector WallStars by yield, a healthcare facilities representative placed seventh, Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH) [7].

Actionable Conclusions: (21) Top Ten RE WallStars Reported 8.48% To 37.28% Price Upsides To February, 2020; (22) No Downsides Were Noted

Source: YCharts

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Estimated A 21.06% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Real Estate Sector WallStars To February, 2020

Ten top Real Estate WallStars were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend / price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, top ten Real Estate WallStars selected 2/1/19 showing the highest dividend yields represented four of nine industries constituting the sector.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Charted 5 Lowest-Priced Of the Top Ten Highest-Yield Real Estate Dogs (23) Delivering 13.5% Vs. (24) 17.09% Net Gains by All Ten, Come February 2020

Source: YCharts

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend Real Estate kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 21.06% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The ninth lowest priced Real Estate top yield equity, Global Net Lease Inc (GNL), was projected to gain 36.26%.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-priced Real Estate top yield WallStars as of February 2 were: Anworth Mortgage Asset Corp (ANH); Dynex Capital Inc (DX); Orchid Island Capital (ORC); MFA Financial (MFA); Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp (WMC), with prices ranging from $4.46 to $9.81.

Five higher-priced Real Estate WallStars were: Senior Housing Properties Trust (SNH); New Residential Investment Corp (NRZ); Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp (CHMI); Global Net Lease Inc (GNL); Uniti Group Inc (UNIT), whose prices ranged from $13.41 to $19.87.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Real Estate WallStar stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Home dog photo: listingdoor.com

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.