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TherapeuticsMD Updates Investors On IMVEXXY Launch And The Share Price Follows Suit

Feb. 05, 2019 2:39 PM ETTherapeuticsMD, Inc. (TXMD)34 Comments


  • TherapeuticsMD recently updated investors on their IMVEXXY launch. The stock finally appears to have synced up with the fundamentals.
  • I review IMVEXXY's launch thus far and highlight the key metrics investors need to keep an eye on for 2019.
  • The charts are indicating a possible breakout as it approaches major moving average. I review the charts to decide whether to buy on this news or wait till the Q4 ER.

TherapeuticsMD (NASDAQ:TXMD) recently released an investor presentation with updated IMVEXXY launch metrics. The slide presentation contained vital information regarding the company's ongoing launch efforts. Not only was the data contained within the presentation encouraging, but the fact management continues to update investors regularly throughout the IMVEXXY launch is reassuring.

The stock appears to have fully recovered from the end of 2018 sell-off. Since my last TXMD article, the share price has moved up from the low $4.00 range and has found a new home in the $5.00-5.50 per share area. In addition, the stock has hurdled over the 50-day moving average ($4.57) and is now approaching the pivotal 200-day moving average ($5.65).

I believe that the positive change in the share price is more than just the resurgence in the overall market. The company's recent script reports and the technical setups on the charts are indicating a major move in the share price throughout 2019.

Source: TXMD

Company Overview

TherapeuticsMD is an advanced healthcare company specializing in developing and commercializing products entirely for women. TherapeuticsMD targets the challenges women experience throughout their lives, including family planning, reproductive health, and menopause management.

The company's portfolio includes products developed by TherapeuticsMD's SYMBODA technology. Applying this technology, TherapeuticsMD has developed hormone therapy ("HT") products to facilitate delivery of bioidentical hormones through a variety of dosage forms and administration methods. The company's comprehensive product portfolio (Figure 1) contains prenatal care supplements, ANNOVERA, BIJUVA, and IMVEXXY.

Figure 1: TXMD Portfolio (Source: TXMD)

Source: TXMD

IMVEXXY Launch Update

In May 2018, the FDA approved IMVEXXY for the treatment of moderate to severe dyspareunia (vaginal pain associated with sexual activity), a symptom of vulvar and vaginal atrophy ("VVA"), as a result of menopause. The company commenced the US commercial launch of IMVEXXY estradiol vaginal inserts 10 mcg dose during August 2018, and the

This article was written by

Biologics profile picture

After years of working in the medical field, I have developed a passion for biotech and lifesaving therapies. Now, I am a full-time healthcare investor who is in search of the next breakthrough therapy, device, or pharmaceutical. My trade focus is around catalysts and potential acquisitions. In addition, I provide a marketplace service, Compounding Healthcare through Seeking Alpha.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I am/we are long TXMD. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Comments (34)

I agree with lambchops but in order to buy I need TXMD to show me the money$$$$$. Execution has been weak but if they deliver reasonable earnings and outlook all that could change quickly. Long TXMD
Biologics profile picture
Waiting for that BIJUVA...I am wondering what the hold up is.
Very positive announcement with TPG. Takes dilution risk off the table and provides confidence that TPG is willing to be flexible on terms with the company. They believe products will have solid demand. Shorts have been in control in a staggering way if revenue starts ramping starting now through end of year and into 2020 this will change imo.

Curous to hear your thoughts? @Biologics
Biologics profile picture
@lambchops I agree...I submitted an article to be published a couple of days ago with my concise thoughts. In general, I turn to Finizio's comments about $11M being very obtainable. If the FDA approves ANNOVERA as a new class, TXMD will have upgrades upon upgrades.
Earnings out Thursday and launches ahead.
Biologics profile picture
still above 200 SMA...bullish
@Zheng Feng Chee Curious to hear your opinion? You and @Biologics seem to have a handle on the company and respect your opinion.
Consumer confirmation is the key. As that picture emerges the only question will "How High" or "What price Buyout".
Added this dip. Step1. many more ahead. There Highly needed Birth control will be the biggest selling B control on the market. it gives women the choice to leave it in for long periods of time. the hormone issue with other birth control items on the market compared to txmd are horrible. TXMD will see massive sales in the coming months - years. this is a company with three fantastic much needed in demand products that I am extremely happy 2 be invested in this company. $50 5 yrs. IMO.
Let's see the second launch and Q2 earnings report by 15 May or earlier. Markets hate late reporting.
Biologics profile picture
I read the Jeffries report...the timing of the release is suspicious and is reaching.
Strange report by Jefferies. He gave 0 value to Annovera! Also said black box warning could cause hesitancy but that's very common in the category and has not be an issue so far with the above average launch of Imvexxy. Also used new therapy of non compounded/hormonal products being developed in approx. 5 YEARS! That's a huge runway time for Bijuva to ramp up sales. Another factor non hormonal products are already out there and have very little market share as majority go to compounding pharmacies and pay out of pocket for it with NO INSURANCE COVERAGE. So even if new non hormonal therapy was developed it would be a difficult sale as women obviously like the hormonal/compounded product as majority scripts are there and they pay a lot of money for it... which is the great opportunity for Bijuva as it will be cheaper,safer, and works just as well.
Very easy to be bullish down near 4 or even 5 or if you are new to the stock, anyone trading it more than 6 months to 3yrs like most of us are frustrated with constant bear catalysts and management doing nothing for SP but most of the appear to acting in bear favor like there is s huge conflict of interest somewhere
Deception 1 stated no more dilution then diluted 5 days later and twice since, 2nd said class I resubmit when they knew they missed deadline, claimed they would give script numbers every 2 wks but lucky if once a month, said will not comment on imvexxy script numbers during ER quiet period but did it anyway, the analysts and pumpers have been wrong for 5 yrs, one started with a 34$ target which is 900% wrong, Now offering and insider selling major threat as they have proved they will not change plans will sell at 6 or 2$ they do not care
Looking to see second launch by earnings report. Execution is now the key to success. TXMD must prove it can execute the rollout. Show me time. Can double by end of month or close February @11. Dips here mean nothing but profit taking from day traders.
Hahaha yea never shorts defending their 70m shares
TXMD is going down premarket at 4 bucks its a buy. They still havr two more drugs to commercialize, think it will be up and down. Buy at 4 sell at 5.30 to 5.50.
Why waste your time for a 1 point move. When you can hold this one
maybe, will see how it trades
What’s going on with TXMD this morning?
Jefferies printed a smear campaign with a 5 dollar price target. it's just a campaign to shake shares loose and let shorts cover. stay long! the battle has begun!
It appears that the Institutional buyers/holders* see it the author's way, which as of 9.30.2018, hold 178,858,266, out of the 237,881,000, outstanding shares (per fidelity.com).

So, whatever the shorts may see, and I of course have zero idea what the varied reasons shorts may hold for shorting, it seems as if there are many who are long that see it quite differently.

And, a quick look at the TXMD daily chart as far back as October 17, 2018, where the intraday day high was $5.95 versus today's intraday high of $5.97, informs anyone who takes a look at that chart, that every single short seller that sold short between October 17, 2018 and today who has not closed their short position, is not a happy camper, to say the least!!

Lastly, as it is often said, that trend since October 18, 2018 reveals one more problematic point for short sellers to ruminate about: the trend is not their friend.
why they didnt cover at 3.50 to 4 dollars in December just amazes me. Maybe for greed.. maybe for plain stupidity.
100% re-tracement from recent low of 3.50 which it should of never saw again, volume has been very low during up trend indicating the only that has happened is shorts have let up a bit! TXMD is owned by the shorts and will continue that trend until there is a bull thesis that wins or gets investors interested again, after yrs of lies and deception by management that will be a tall order
owned by the shorts??? that's why it's up 60% from its lows and in a firm uptrend. What deception do u speak of? They have done great delivering. 3 great drugs approved with any number of positive catalysts moving forward. The bullish thesis us far ahead of the bearish.
60% from a bs low of 3.50 which just so happens to be same low as CRL, easy call and rebound to previous low 5 support, says nothing about stock
So you truly believe that BIJUVA and annovera will tank? that itll sit in the 5 - 6 dollar range this year? Your opinion of course, but I FIRMLY disagree!
Thx for the article. Looks like a good time to start scaling in
jrc50 profile picture
Proof is in the pudding! When the stock price gets back up to $7.50 finally the wound may begin to heal from no news except who in management is scoring the most $ from stock options
I personally loved the option selling. I tripled my position and have a cost basis at 3.81. TXMD is just crawling right now.. soon itll run! Already up 50% thanks to shorts and option selling. Long and strong and won't sell under 20.
Solid reporting; awaiting earnings/outlook report! See TXMD as significantly undervalued.
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