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The Winter Of Our Discontent (And Spring Of Hope?)

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Louis Navellier


  • Today marks the 46th day of winter – the midway point of the 91-day season.
  • Wall Street’s tale of the tape for the first half of winter began with a market bottom on December 24.
  • Also, as of February 1, fourth-quarter GDP is expected to be +2.5%, meaning “no recession in sight."

By Gary Alexander

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…

– The opening lines of “A Tale of Two Cities” by Charles Dickens

To quote Shakespeare, last December marked what looked like “a Winter of our Discontent,” but then Charles Dickens’ more balanced laundry list gave us the full story: It was both the best of times – the best stock market gains in January in 32 years – and the worst of times, the worst December since 1931.

So which month is telling the truth – Depressing December or Joyful January?

Today marks the 46th day of winter – the midway point of the 91-day season. Wall Street’s tale of the tape for the first half of winter began with a market bottom on December 24. The fall season (aptly named this year) brought a 19.8% fall in the S&P 500 – just short of an official “bear market” (-20%) designation. Since then, the S&P has recovered by 15% on a closing basis (in just 26 trading days since December 24).


Act III is yet to come. Will we see another “worst of times” or just a “pause that refreshes”? (It’s highly unlikely we’ll see another 15% gain in the next 38 days. Trees don’t usually grow that rapidly in winter.)

Last year, I hate to remind you, the markets soared by an equivalent amount in January – until the last three trading days of the month, when the market began a horrendous 10% decline in 10 trading days. Could that happen

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Louis Navellier profile picture
Navellier & Associates was founded by Louis Navellier in 1987 and since then has guided thousands of investors by applying our disciplined, quantitative investment process to a broad range of equity products. Every day, investors hire Navellier to manage their assets in a private account, mutual fund, or defensive portfolio. For over 25 years, we’ve been zeroing in on opportunities for long-term growth. We employ a veteran team of investment and client service professionals who deliver exceptional, personal service and industry-leading information to our clients. _________________________________ Important Disclosures that Accompany Navellier & Associates Articles: *Navellier may hold this security in one or more investment strategies offered to its clients. None of the stock information, data, and company information presented herein constitutes a recommendation by Navellier or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any securities. Any specific securities identified and described do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for advisory clients. The reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable. Information presented is general information that does not take into account your individual circumstances, financial situation, or needs, nor does it present a personalized recommendation to you. Individual stocks presented may not be suitable for you. Investment in securities involves significant risk and has the potential for partial or complete loss of funds invested. One cannot invest directly in an index. Results presented include the reinvestment of all dividends and other earnings. Graphs are for illustrative and discussion purposes only. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources Navellier believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and the information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute Navellier's judgment as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. This report is for informational purposes and is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in this research must take into account existing public information on such security or any registered prospectus. Past performance is no indication of future results. FEDERAL TAX ADVICE DISCLAIMER: As required by U.S. Treasury Regulations, you are informed that, to the extent this presentation includes any federal tax advice, the presentation is not intended or written by Navellier to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of avoiding federal tax penalties. Navellier does not advise on any income tax requirements or issues. Use of any information presented by Navellier is for general information only and does not represent tax advice either express or implied. You are encouraged to seek professional tax advice for income tax questions and assistance.

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