Merk Research: U.S. Business Cycle Chart Book February 2019


While some of the economic indicators are starting to turn more negative, my base-case view remains that the U.S. economic expansion will likely continue over the next few months, and in general until further notice.

There are two key indicators that are helping to keep me positive on the economy: the LEI Index still looks reasonably strong, and the yield curve still has not yet inverted.

In terms of negatives: I’m concerned about the weakness in the global economy, China and Germany specifically, where the manufacturing PMIs are below 50.