Currency Outlook: U.S. Dollar Expected To Weaken As Exceptionalism Theme Unwinds

|
Includes: CNY, CROC, CYB, DAUD, DEUR, DGBP, DJPY, DRR, ERO, EUFX, EUO, FXA, FXB, FXC, FXCH, FXE, FXY, GBB, JYN, UAUD, UDN, UEUR, UGBP, UJPY, ULE, URR, USDU, UUP, YCL, YCS
by: Invesco US
Summary

We expect the US dollar to weaken in the near term.

The renminbi rallied to a range of 6.75 to 6.80 in January, helped by US dollar softness and more encouraging headlines on US-China trade negotiations.

The yen appreciated sharply in late December and early January, finally exhibiting its historic negative correlation to risk assets.

The Canadian dollar ended 2018 at a low but has since rallied to begin the year.

The Australian dollar has exhibited its historical positive correlation to global risk sentiment, depreciating in December and appreciating in January.

Posted by Ray Uy, Head of Macro Research and Currency Portfolio Management on Feb 6, 2019, in Fixed Income

Invesco Fixed Income shares its views on currencies around the world

Currency Outlook: US dollar expected to weaken as exceptionalism theme unwinds

US dollar: Underweight.

We expect the US dollar to weaken in the near term. Renewed global growth convergence will likely cause the unwinding of the US exceptionalism theme that drove the dollar higher in 2018. We are encouraged by the price action so far this year and believe it is appropriate to re-establish an underweight in the dollar in the first quarter of 2019. US growth should remain solid in 2019, but moderate toward a mid-to-low 2% level as the Fed reaches the end of its tightening cycle. In Europe and China, we expect growth to stabilize above potential in 2019, which could cause investors to shift some assets from the US to other regions, potentially weighing on the dollar. Budget and current account deficit concerns could be additional headwinds for the dollar.

Euro: Neutral.

We remain on the sidelines but are more optimistic given the change in our broader US dollar view. While we expect further convergence across the global economy over the course of this year, euro area activity continues to moderate, and it seems unlikely that the European Central Bank will implement a favorable policy catalyst. Thus, any positive drivers for the euro will likely be due to exogenous factors as the year unfolds.

Renminbi: Neutral.

The renminbi rallied to a range of 6.75 to 6.80 in January, helped by US dollar softness and more encouraging headlines on US-China trade negotiations.1 We expect US dollar performance against other major currencies and US-China trade relations to continue to drive the renminbi's performance versus the US dollar in the near term. Chinese capital controls on outflows remain tight, which should give the Peoples Bank of China room to pursue independent monetary policy. We still view 6.80 to 6.90 as the likely trading range for the renminbi.

Japanese yen: Overweight.

The yen appreciated sharply in late December and early January, finally exhibiting its historic negative correlation to risk assets. Due to the limited upside to US yields, slowing global growth and rising volatility, the unhedged foreign exchange flows that acted as a headwind for the yen in 2018 are likely to wane or reverse, in our view. Although the yen has rebounded from its lows, we believe this reversal will allow the currency to act more as a risk-asset hedge going forward. We are likely to add to our existing yen position on dips.

British pound sterling: Overweight.

Although the tail risk of a "no deal" Brexit remains, there is increasing evidence that a cross-party coalition of members of Parliament is mobilizing to avoid this outcome. The European Union (EU) also appears willing to extend the deadline for leaving the EU beyond March 29. In addition, we view the huge defeat of Prime Minister Theresa May's deal and the Labour Party's failure to force an election as increasing the probability of a softer Brexit model. These could include a permanent customs union, a customs union and single market membership (the so-called Norway plus model) or a new referendum.

Canadian dollar: Neutral.

The Canadian dollar ended 2018 at a low but has since rallied to begin the year.2 The rally occurred despite the Bank of Canada's switch to a dovish tone at its January meeting, where it indicated a willingness to be patient and watch for a pickup in the data. With the recent rebound in the Canadian dollar, the currency is nearing a level where we may consider moving underweight.

Australian dollar: Neutral.

The Australian dollar has exhibited its historical positive correlation to global risk sentiment, depreciating in December and appreciating in January. The currency appears undervalued relative to Australia's terms of trade, in our view, and could benefit from Chinese stimulus and easing US-China trade tensions. However, Australia's relatively weak domestic growth and inflation picture, combined with monetary policy stability, will likely keep the Australian dollar range-bound.

Indian rupee: Neutral.

The rupee has appreciated nearly 4.5% against the US dollar since it reached an all-time low of 74.44 in October 2018.3 It is likely this rebound was driven largely by declining oil prices and supportive measures from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). However, we believe the RBI is unlikely to provide additional support and any further appreciation will likely be driven by moves in the US dollar or oil prices.

1 Source: Bloomberg L.P., data from Jan. 1, 2019 to Jan. 24, 2019.

2 Source: Bloomberg L.P., data from Dec. 31, 2018 to Jan. 18, 2019.

3 Source: Bloomberg L.P., data from Oct. 9, 2018 to Jan. 18, 2019.

Important information

Blog header image: Wara1982/Shutterstock.com

A hedge is an investment made to reduce the risk of adverse price movements in a security by taking an offsetting position in a related security. To be "unhedged" is to not have this offsetting position.

Tail risk generally refers to events which have a very small probability of occurring. In finance, it is when the possibility of an investment moving more than three standard deviations from the mean is greater than what is shown by a normal distribution.

The risks of investing in securities of foreign issuers, including emerging market issuers, can include fluctuations in foreign currencies, political and economic instability, and foreign taxation issues.

The performance of an investment concentrated in issuers of a certain region or country is expected to be closely tied to conditions within that region and to be more volatile than more geographically diversified investments.

The dollar value of foreign investments will be affected by changes in the exchange rates between the dollar and the currencies in which those investments are traded.

This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial advisor/financial consultant before making any investment decisions. Invesco does not provide tax advice. The tax information contained herein is general and is not exhaustive by nature. Federal and state tax laws are complex and constantly changing. Investors should always consult their own legal or tax professional for information concerning their individual situation. The opinions expressed are those of the authors, are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. These opinions may differ from those of other Invesco investment professionals.

NOT FDIC INSURED MAY LOSE VALUE NO BANK GUARANTEE

All data provided by Invesco unless otherwise noted.

Invesco Distributors, Inc. is the US distributor for Invesco Ltd.'s retail products and collective trust funds. Invesco Advisers, Inc. and other affiliated investment advisers mentioned provide investment advisory services and do not sell securities. Invesco Unit Investment Trusts are distributed by the sponsor, Invesco Capital Markets, Inc., and broker-dealers including Invesco Distributors, Inc. Each entity is an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of Invesco Ltd.

©2019 Invesco Ltd. All rights reserved.

Currency Outlook: US dollar expected to weaken as exceptionalism theme unwinds by Invesco US

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.