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Agricultural Commodities Post WASDE


  • The USDA finally speaks.
  • Soybeans sit above $9.
  • Corn edges lower.
  • Wheat steady but KCBT-CBOT is a warning.
  • Cotton does not move much, and meats continue their price trends.
  • Looking for more? I update all of my investing ideas and strategies to members of Hecht Commodity Report. Get started today »

On Friday, February 8, the USDA released its first World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for 2019. The January report was a casualty of the government shutdown.

The agricultural markets greeted the report that outlines the latest supply and demand fundamentals with little more than a yawn. The February report comes at a time when farmers in the United States are making plans for the 2019 crop. The supply and demand information supplied by the USDA is the gold standard when it comes to market fundamentals in many agricultural markets. Meanwhile, farmers are watching the ups and downs of trade negotiations between the US and China these days which will impact supply and demand for their products over the coming months, and perhaps years. The trade dispute that began last year and resulted in a series of tariffs and retaliatory measures weighed on the prices of many US agricultural products. China is the world’s most populous nation and is a significant percentage of the addressable market for US crops each year. While the WASDE report has taken many of the markets out of the dark when it comes to the fundamental data, uncertainty over trade will continue to guide the path of least resistance of prices in many of the agricultural commodities over the coming days, weeks, and beyond.

The Invesco DB Agriculture ETF product (NYSEARCA:DBA) holds futures contracts in many of the commodities that are the subjects of the monthly WASDE report.

The USDA finally speaks

The market finally heard from the USDA on Friday, February 8, and the agency started the monthly WASDE report with the following message:

NOTE: Due to the lapse in Federal funding, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for January 2019 will not be published.

The February WASDE report gave an

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This article was written by

Andrew Hecht profile picture
Weekly commodities commentary and calls, from a Wall Street veteran
Andy Hecht is a sought-after commodity and futures trader, an options expert and analyst. He is the #2 ranked author on Seeking Alpha in both the commodities and precious metals categories. He is also the author of the weekly Hecht Commodity Report on Marketplace - the most comprehensive, deep-dive commodities report available on Seeking Alpha.

Andy spent nearly 35 years on Wall Street, including two decades on the trading desk of Phillip Brothers, which became Salomon Brothers and ultimately part of Citigroup.

Over the past two decades, he has researched, structured and executed some of the largest trades ever made, involving massive quantities of precious metals and bulk commodities.

Andy understands the market in a way many traders can’t imagine. He’s booked vessels, armored cars, and trains to transport and store a broad range of commodities. And he’s worked directly with The United Nations and the legendary trading group Phibro.

Today, Andy remains in close contact with sources around the world and his network of traders.

“I have a vast Rolodex of information in my head… so many bull and bear markets. When something happens, I don’t have to think. I just react. History does tend to repeat itself over and over.”

His friends and mentors include highly regarded energy and precious metals traders, supply line specialists and international shipping companies that give him vast insight into the market.

Andy’s writing and analysis are on many market-based websites including CQG. Andy lectures at colleges and Universities. He also contributes to Traders Magazine. He consults for companies involved in producing and consuming commodities. Andy’s first book How to Make Money with Commodities, published by McGraw-Hill was released in 2013 and has received excellent reviews. Andy held a Series 3 and Series 30 license from the National Futures Association and a collaborator and strategist with hedge funds. Andy is the commodity expert for the website about.com and blogs on his own site dynamiccommodities.com. He is a frequent contributor on Stock News- https://stocknews.com/authors/?author=andrew-hecht

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

The author always has positions in commodities markets in futures, options, ETF/ETN products, and commodity equities. These long and short positions tend to change on an intraday basis.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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