88 Dogs Of The Seeking Alpha LOUD Pack By Dividend Yield, Upside, And Net Gains Led By Medley Management For February

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About: Martin Midstream Partners L.P. (MMLP), Includes: ANDX, ARLP, AY, BGC, BGCP, COTY, FDUS, FSK, JP, MCC, MDLY, SRLP, TRGP, VET, WPP
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

Seeking Alpha's Content editor made a list of 225 preferred "bonus" stocks. Contributors receive higher click-pay for covering them. These 88 emerged when YCharts screened for yields over 1%.

The Seeking Alpha LOUD List is based on number of quote page visits on stocks that have been at least 90 days without coverage.

Top ten broker target-estimated Dogs of the LOUD net gains as of 2/7/19 ranged 33.65%-105.5% from SRLP, TRGP AY, COTY, VET, MCC, ARLP, WPP, BGCP, & top dog MDLY.

88 dividend-paying Dogs of the LOUD ranged in estimated yield from 0.83% to 20.00%. Top ten, FDUS, ARLP,  BGCP, MCC, ANDX, FXK, JP, SRLP, MMLP, & MDLY averaged 13.69%.

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five  of ten top-yield LOUD dividend stocks showed 23.69% more net-gain than $5k invested in all ten.  Low price little dogs ruled the February Dogs Of The LOUD. That are stocks that have active interest, (LOved) but little or no coverage (UnDocumented). Hence these dogs cry LOUD for attention.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Forecast 9.55% To 37.24% Net Gains From January's SA460 Top Ten Dividend Dogs

Five of ten top yield LOUD dividend stocks were identified as being among the top ten net gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). So, our dogcatcher yield-based forecast for LOUD divi-dogs was graded by Wall St. brokers as 50% accurate.

Source: YCharts

The Seeking Alpha LOUD List is based on number of quote page visits on stocks that have been at least 90 days without coverage. Thus, targeting coverage of stocks that have active interest,(LOved) but little or no coverage (UnDocumented). Hence these dogs cry LOUD for attention.

Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1000 invested in each the high yield stocks and their aggregate one year analyst-estimated median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2019-20 data points. Note: one year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to February 25, 2020 were:

Medley Management Inc (MDLY) was projected to net $1055.00 based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 57% more than the market as a whole.

BGC Partners Inc (BGCP) was projected to net $528.28, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 99% more than the market as a whole.

WPP PLC (WPP) was projected to net $275.98, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from sixteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 7% more than the market as a whole.

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) was projected to net $452.58, based on target price estimates from four analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 2% more than the market as a whole.

Medley Capital Corp (MCC) netted $451.47 based on a median target price estimate from two analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 45% more than the market as a whole.

Vermilion Energy Inc (VET) was projected to net $417.96 based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from fifteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 2% more than the market as a whole.

Coty Inc (COTY) was projected to net $396.43.31 based on the median of target price estimates from seventeen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 19% less than the market as a whole.

Atlantica Yield PLC (AY) was expected to net $354.93, based on dividends plus, the median of target price estimates from nne analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 25% less than the market as a whole.

Targa Resources Corp (TRGP) was projected to net $345.64 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from twenty-two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 108% more than the market as a whole.

Sprague Resources LP (SRLP) was projected to net $336.45, based on target estimates from two analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 58% more than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 48.45% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 33% more than the market as a whole.

Source:akc.org

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

50 SeekingAlpha LOUD Dividend Dogs By Broker Targets

Source: YCharts

This scale of broker estimated upside (or downside) for stock prices provides a scale of market popularity. Note: no broker coverage or 1 broker coverage produced a zero score on the above scale. It can be taken as an emotional component as opposed to the strictly monetary and objective dividend/price yield-driven report below.

50 SeekingAlpha LOUD Dividend Dogs By Yield

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top LOUD Dividend Stocks By Yield

Top ten SA LOUD dividend stocks selected 2/7/19 by yield represented three of eleven Morningstar sectors. Top yielding stock, Medley Management Inc (MDLY) [1] was the the first of six financial services firms in the top ten.

The other financial services LOUD dogs tops by yielplaced fourth, fifth, seventh, eighth, and tenth: Jupai Holdings Ltd (JP) [4]; FS KKR Capital Corp (FSK) [5]; Medley Capital Corp (MCC) [7]; BGC Partners Inc (BGCP) [8]; Fidus Investment Corp (FDUS) [10].

Second place uncovered the top of a pack of three LOUD Energy dogs headed by Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP). The other two energy representatives placed third, & sixth. They were, Sprague Resources LP (SRLP) [3]; Andeavor Logistics LP (ANDX) [6].

Finally, in ninth place was the lone basic material representative in the top ten, Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) [10], to complete the SeekingAlpha LOUD top ten pack by yield for February.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top Ten Seeking Alpha LOUD Dividend Dogs Showed 24.21% To 87.5% Upsides To February, 2020, With (31) No Downsides

Source: YCharts

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became yet another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Predicted A 23.69% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Of Top 10 SeekingAlpha LOUD Dividend Dogs To February, 2020

Ten top SeekingAlpha LOUD dividend dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, top ten SeekingAlpha LOUD dividend stocks represented three of the eleven Morningstar sectors.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected 5 Lowest-Priced Of Top Ten Highest-Yield Seeking Alpha LOUD Stocks (32) To Fetch 49.72% Vs. (33) 40.20% Net Gains by All Ten by February, 2020

Source: YCharts

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten LOUD dividend kennel by yield were predicted to produce 23.69% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The third lowest priced SA LOUD top yield stock, Medley Management Inc (MDLY), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 105.5%.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-price Seeking Alpha LOUD top ten dividend stocks February 7 were: Medley Capital Corp (MDLY); Jupai Holdings Ltd (JP); Medley Management Inc (MCC); BGC Partners Inc (BGC); FS KKR Capital Corp (FSK), with prices ranging from $3.33 to $6.17.

Five higher-priced SeekingAlpha LOUD dividend stocks for February 7 were: Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP); Fidus Investment Corp (FDUS); Sprague Resources LP (SRLP); Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP); Andeavor Logistics LP (ANDX), whose prices ranged from $12.69 to $33.89.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your SA LOUD dividend dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: akc.org

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.