USD/CAD - Canadian Dollar Calm On Lack Of Data

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Includes: FXC, UDN, USDU, UUP
by: Dean Popplewell
Summary

USD/CAD is showing little movement in the Monday session.

The manufacturing sector has sputtered, as the global trade war has lessened the demand for Canadian exports.

Core CPI has recorded weak gains of 0.2% for four successive months.

By Kenny Fisher

USD/CAD is showing little movement in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3235, down 0.15% on the day. In the U.S., banks are closed for a holiday. There are no U.S. or Canadian events on the calendar, so traders can expect limited movement from USD/CAD.

Recent Canadian numbers have been mixed. The economy created 66.8 thousand jobs in January, crushing the forecast of 6.5 thousand. However, manufacturing sales have recorded declines of 1.3% in December and 1.4% in November. The manufacturing sector has sputtered, as the global trade war has lessened the demand for Canadian exports. As well, low oil prices are weighing on the economy and on the Canadian dollar. The currency has slipped 1.2% in February. The Bank of Canada is unlikely to raise rates at the March 6 meeting, but there is room for rate hikes later in the year if economic growth improves.

Is the U.S. economy slowing down? There are concerns about the strength of the economy, after soft consumer data in January. Retail sales and core retail sales showed sharp contraction, and these numbers came on the heels of soft inflation indicators. Inflation remains low, despite a strong labor market. CPI showed no change in January and has failed to post a gain since November. Core CPI has recorded weak gains of 0.2% for four successive months. On an annualized basis, CPI gained 1.6% in January, the weakest year-over-year gain since mid-2017. The soft inflation numbers were a result of low energy prices, which fell 3.1% in January as oil prices remain under pressure.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Monday (February 18)

  • There are no U.S. or Canadian events

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Tuesday, February 18, 2019

USD/CAD, February 18 at 8:20 EST

Open: 1.3255 High: 1.3256 Low: 1.3226 Close: 1.3237

USD/CAD Technical

S3

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

1.3049

1.3125

1.3200

1.3290

1.3383

1.3445

USD/CAD ticked lower in the Asian session and has been mostly flat in European trade

  • 1.3200 is providing support

  • 1.3290 is the next resistance line

  • Current range: 1.3200 to 1.3290

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3200, 1.3125 and 1.3049

  • Above: 1.3290, 1.3383, 1.3445 and 1.3547

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Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.