The Gold, Commodities And The Long-Dollar ETFs Stalled Last Week

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Includes: GLD, GSG, UUP
by: Richard Suttmeier
Summary

The gold ETF is above value levels at $120.36 and $118.45, with my quarterly risky level at $130.76.

The commodities ETF has a monthly value level at $14.44 with the 200-week simple moving average at $15.84.

The long dollar ETF remains between my annual pivot at $25.47 and my monthly risky level at $26.01.

Here are the weekly charts for the gold, commodities and the dollar ETFs.

The gold trust ETF tracks the spot price of gold and is said to be backed by gold bars in vaults in London.

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD)

Weekly Chart For GLD Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The gold ETF ($121.88 on March 1) is up just 0.5% so far in 2019 and is 9.7% above its Aug. 15 low of $111.06. GLD has a neutral weekly chart, with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average at $122.70 and above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $118.01. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading ended last week at 86.68, down from 91.65 on Feb. 22, still above the overbought threshold of 80.00 but is no longer above 90.00 which is my reading for an “inflating parabolic bubble”.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my semiannual and monthly value levels at $120.36 and $118.45, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my quarterly risky level at $130.76. My annual value level lags at $110.38.

The commodity ETF is heavily-weighted to energy by about 60%.

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GSG)

Weekly Chart For GSG Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The commodities ETF ($15.54 on March 1) is up 10.8% so far in 2019 and up 15.1% since its Dec. 26 low of $13.50. This ETF is still down 17.4% from its Oct. 3 high of $18.81. GSG has a positive weekly chart, with the ETF above its five-week MMA of $15.42 and just below its 200-week SMA or “reversion to the mean” at $15.84. GSG appears poised for an upside breakout above the 200-week SMA. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 73.24 last week, up from 63.44 on Feb. 22.

Nymex crude oil closed last week at $55.80 with a positive weekly chart as oil is above its five-week modified moving average at $54.57. Oil is above its 200-week or “reversion to the mean” at $52.29. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastics reading rose to 75.66 last week, up from 66.66 on Feb. 22. My semiannual and monthly value levels are $50.84 and $46.13, with my quarterly risky level at $60.16.

Investor Strategy: Buy GSG on weakness to my monthly value level at $14.44 and reduce holdings on strength to the 200-day simple moving average at $16.59. My quarterly pivot is $15.60.

The US dollar ETF is a basket of currencies that includes the dollar vs. Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

Invesco DB USD Bullish ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP)

Weekly Chart For UUP Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

The dollar ETF ($25.74 on March 1) is up just 1.1% so far in 2019 and up 11.3% since trading as low as $23.12 in early 2018. UUP has a positive weekly chart, with the ETF above its five-week MMA of $25.66 and above its 200-week SMA or “reversion to the mean” of $25.01. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 50.99 last week, up from 46.39 on Feb. 22.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my annual and quarterly value levels at $25.47 and $23.23, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and semiannual risky levels at $26.01 and $26.39, respectively.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.