The Bear Market Rally Stalls And A Consolidation Begins For The 5 Equity ETFs

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Includes: DIA, IWM, IYT, QQQ, SPY
by: Richard Suttmeier
Summary

The Diamonds ETF falls below its annual pivot at $257.95 but remains above its 200-day simple moving average at $251.31.

The Spiders ETF failed at its monthly risky level at $281.13 and closed below its 200-day SMA at $274.84 with my semiannual pivot at $266.14.

The QQQ ETF failed to hold its monthly pivot at $174.32 and moved below its 200-day SMA at $172.30 with its annual and semiannual pivots at $169.27 and $167.53, respectively.

The transports ETF failed to hold its 200-day SMA at $190.04 with its 50-day SMA at $179.67. My semiannual value level lags at $159.81.

The Russell 2000 ETF failed to hold its 200-day SMA at $157.67 and its annual pivot at $157.49 with its semiannual and monthly value levels at $149.77 and $148.81, respectively.

Today I show the daily charts with their key technical levels.

Here’s Today’s Scorecard

Scorecard For Five Equity ETFs SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCA:DIA)

Daily Chart For Diamonds Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

The Diamonds ETF was in bull market territory but slipped to 17.4% above its 2018 low of $216.97 set on Dec. 26 and is 5.4% below its all-time intraday high of $269.28 set on Oct. 3. Remember that Dec. 6 was a “key reversal” as the close was above the Dec. 24 high. Buy weakness to my semiannual value level at $243.47 and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and quarterly risky levels at $265.49 and $270.43, respectively. DIA is below my annual pivot at $257.94.

The weekly chart for Diamonds is positive but overbought with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $253.03. DIA is well above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $210.37. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 86.14 last week up from 82.82 on March 1 moving further above the overbought threshold of 80.00.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY)

Daily Chart For Spiders Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

The Spiders ETF was in bull market territory a week ago but is now 17.4% above its Dec. 26 low of $233.76 and is 6.6% below its all-time intraday high of $293.94 on Sept. 21. Remember that Dec. 26 was a “key reversal” as the close was above the Dec. 24 high. Buy weakness to my semiannual value level at $266.14 and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly and annual risky levels at $281.13 and $285.86, respectively, and $281.13 was tested on Monday, March 4. My quarterly risky level is $292.16.

The weekly chart for Spiders is positive buy overbought with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $272.34. SPY is above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $237.75 after this average held at $234.71 during the week of Dec. 28. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 86.01 last week up from 82.34 on March 1 moving further above the overbought threshold of 80.00.

PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ)

Daily Chart For QQQs Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

The QQQ ETF was in bull market territory last week but is now 19.3% above its 2018 low of $143.46 on Dec. 24. QQQ is 8.7% below its all-time intraday high of $187.53 set on Oct. 1. Buy weakness to my annual and semiannual value levels at $169.27 and $167.53, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly pivot at $174.43. My quarterly risky level is $192.04.

The weekly chart for QQQ’s is positive but overbought with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $169.12. QQQ is above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $136.65. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 87.61 last week up from 84.18 on March 1 moving further above the overbought threshold of 80.00.

iShares Transportation Average ETF (NYSEARCA:IYT)

Daily Chart For IYT Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

IYT was in bull market territory but is now 17.7% above its 2018 low if $155.24 set on Dec. 24. The ETF is in correction territory 12.8% below its all-time intraday high of $209.43 on Sept. 14. Buy weakness to my semiannual value level at $159.63 and reduce holdings on strength to my monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at $193.67, $195.81 and $196.35, respectively.

The weekly chart for IYT has been downgraded to neutral with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average at $183.77. The ETF is above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $165.04. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 73.21 last week up from 68.88 March 1.

iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSEARCA:IWM)

Daily Chart For IWM Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

IWM is in bull market territory 20.5% above its 2018 low of $125.81 set on Dec. 26. The ETF is also in correction territory 12.5% below its all-time intraday high of $173.39 set on Aug. 31. Buy weakness to my semiannual and monthly value levels at $149.77 and $148.81, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my quarterly risky level at $160.93. My annual pivot at $157.49 failed to hold last week.

The weekly chart for IWM is neutral with the ETF below its five-week modified moving average at $151.71. The ETF is above its 200-week SMA or “reversion to the mean” at $135.91. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 86.87 last week up from 84.88 on March 1 moving further above the overbought threshold of 80.00.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.