Gold Popped On Friday, Commodities Still Stalled, The Long-Dollar ETF Gained

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Includes: GLD, GSG, UUP
by: Richard Suttmeier
Summary

The Gold Shares ETF remains above my semiannual and monthly value levels at $120.36 and $118.45 with my quarterly risky level at $130.76.

The commodities ETF has a monthly value level at $14.44 with my quarterly pivot at $15.60 and the 200-week simple moving average at $15.81.

The long dollar ETF remains between my annual pivot at $25.47 and my semiannual risky level at $26.39 with my monthly pivot at $26.01.

Here are the daily charts for the gold, commodities and the dollar ETFs.

The gold trust ETF tracks the spot price of gold and are said to be backed by gold bars in vaults in London.

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD)

Daily Chart For GLD Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

The Gold ETF ($122.84 on March 8) is up 1.3% so far in 2019 and is 10.6% above its Aug 15 low of $111.06. GLD has a neutral weekly chart with the ETF above its five-week modified moving average at $122.73 and above its 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” at $118.06. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading ended last week at 78.88 down from 86.68 on March 1 falling below the overbought threshold of 80.00 but is no longer above 90.00 which is my reading for an “inflating parabolic bubble”.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my semiannual and monthly value levels at $120.36 and $118.45, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my quarterly risky level at $130.76. My annual value level lags at $110.38.

The commodity ETF is heavily-weighted to energy by about 60%.

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GSG)

Daily Chart For GSG Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

The Commodities ETF ($15.57 on March 8) is up 11.1% so far in 2019 and up 15.3% since its Dec. 26 low of $13.50. This ETF is down 17.2% from its Oct. 3 high of $18.81. GSG has a positive weekly chart with the ETF above its five-week MMA of $15.45 and just below its 200-week SMA or “reversion to the mean” at $15.81. GSG appears poised for an upside breakout above the 200-week SMA. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 78.60 last week up from 73.24 on March 1.

Nymex crude oil closed last week at $56.07 with a positive but overbought weekly chart as oil is above its five-week modified moving average at $54.87. Oil is above its 200-week or “reversion to the mean” at $52.28. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastics reading rose to 80.59 last week up from 75.66 on March 1 rising above the overbought threshold of 80.00. My semiannual and monthly value levels are $50.84 and $46.13 with my weekly and quarterly risky levels at $58.54 and $60.16, respectively.

Investor Strategy: Buy GSG on weakness to my monthly value level at $14.44 and reduce holdings on strength to the 200-day simple moving average at $16.53. My quarterly pivot is $15.60.

The US Dollar ETF is a basket of currencies that includes the dollar vs. Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP)

Daily Chart For UUP Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

The Dollar ETF ($25.99 on March 8) is up 2.1% so far in 2019 and up 12.4% since trading as low as $23.12 in early-2018. UUP has a positive weekly chart with the ETF above its five-week MMA of $25.72 and above its 200-week SMA or “reversion to the mean” of $25.02. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading rose to 57.00 last week up from 50.99 on March 1.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to my annual and quarterly value levels at $25.47 and $23.23, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to my semiannual risky level at $26.39. My monthly pivot at $26.01 was tested last week.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.