Merk Research: U.S. Business Cycle Report March 2019

|
Includes: BIL, DDM, DFVL, DFVS, DIA, DLBS, DOG, DTUL, DTUS, DTYL, DTYS, DXD, EDV, EEH, EGF, EPS, EQL, FEX, FIBR, FLAT, FWDD, GBIL, GOVT, GSY, HUSV, HYDD, IEF, IEI, ITE, IVV, IWL, IWM, JHML, JKD, OTPIX, PLW, PSQ, PST, QID, QLD, QQEW, QQQ, QQQE, QQXT, RISE, RSP, RWM, RYARX, RYRSX, SCAP, SCHO, SCHR, SCHX, SDOW, SDS, SFLA, SH, SHV, SHY, SMLL, SPDN, SPLX, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU, SPXV, SPY, SQQQ, SRTY, SSO, STPP, SYE, TAPR, TBF, TBT, TBX, TLH, TLT, TMF, TMV, TNA, TQQQ, TTT, TUZ, TWM, TYBS, TYD, TYNS, TYO, TZA, UBT, UDOW, UDPIX, UPRO, URTY, UST, UWM, VFINX, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VOO, VTWO, VUSTX, VV, ZROZ
by: Axel Merk
Summary

While some business cycle indicators continue to turn more negative, my base-case view remains that the U.S. economic expansion will likely continue over the next few months, and in general until further notice.

There are two key indicators that are helping to keep me positive on the economy: the LEI Index still looks reasonably strong, and the yield curve still has not yet inverted.

The U.S. business cycle picture is still positive, although there is greater uncertainty and we have clearly seen a slowdown in growth momentum.

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.