Your Portfolio Will Not Have Median Returns Almost Always

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Includes: ACWI, EEM, EFA, FXAIX, IEMG, IVV, SPY, SWPPX, VEA, VFIAX, VFINX, VOO, VT, VWO
by: Richard Shaw
Summary

Median return is merely the middle of a probability range.

Actual returns will almost always be near or far one side or the other of the median.

Important recession probability indicators are accumulating.

Long-term return forecasts are well below historical returns.

Emerging markets still comparatively more attractive if you can tolerate the volatility.

This letter does not mention any fund by name or symbol, but focuses primarily on the S&P 500 for which ETFs such as SPY, IVV and VOO are directly related, as are mutual funds such as VFINX, VFIAX, FXAIX, SWPPX. In the section on long-term return forecasts DM and EM markets and Global Stocks are discussed, for which EFA, VEA, EEM, IEMG, VWO, VT and ACWI are relevant.

The following images are the basis of much of the discussion.

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