The Vetoes Of Our Lives

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Includes: BIL, DFVL, DFVS, DLBS, DTUL, DTUS, DTYL, DTYS, EDV, EGF, FIBR, GBIL, GOVT, GSY, HYDD, IEF, IEI, ITE, PLW, PST, RISE, SCHO, SCHR, SHV, SHY, TAPR, TBF, TBT, TBX, TLH, TLT, TMF, TMV, TTT, TUZ, TYBS, TYD, TYNS, TYO, UBT, UST, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VUSTX, ZROZ
by: Mark J. Grant
Summary

On Wednesday the Fed will be plotting to dot their ayes.

The issue will be "How Hawkish," or "How Dovish," as we observe how the birds fly out of their data dependent nests.

The control of the markets by the central banks will be going on at least for the next decade.

House Democrats are planning a March 26 vote to override President Trump's veto of a Bill that revokes his border wall emergency declaration. A top Democratic aide confirmed the date to the Washington Examiner. President Trump declared the emergency to authorize moving $3.6 billion from a military construction budget to an effort to construct physical barriers along the southern border. The House override vote will likely fail.

Only 13 Republicans voted in favor of the resolution to revoke the national emergency, and about 50 Republicans would have to vote with Democrats to provide the two-thirds majority needed to override a veto. Keep your eye on the date to override the veto. Things could get choppy.

Here comes the Wall!

"We're declaring it for virtual invasion purposes," Trump said in a recent speech. "It's not like it's complicated, it's very simple. We want to stop drugs from coming into our country. We want to stop criminals and gangs from coming into our country."

On Wednesday the Fed will be plotting to dot their ayes. All of us will be watching with our own eyes. The issue will be "How Hawkish," or "How Dovish," as we observe how the birds fly out of their data dependent nests.

"If properly understood, the dot plot can be a constructive element of comprehensive policy communication," Chairman Powell has said. But "we will need to find other ways to address the collateral confusion that sometimes surrounds the dots." To emphasize that the dots shouldn't be read in isolation from other Fed communication, Mr. Powell showed a snippet of a blurry bouquet of flowers from a pointillist painting by Georges Seurat. After that, he showed the full landscape. "If you are too focused on a few dots, you may miss the larger picture," he said.

I had a conversation recently with one of the brightest guys at one of America's largest money managers. We were discussing interest rates and he said that what the central banks are doing can't go on forever. I held up my hand and said, "One moment please."

In my humble opinion, the control of the markets by the central banks, will be going on at least for the next decade. In the case of Japan and the European Union, which are both more socialist than the United States, at least for the moment, they have every reason to exercise control. The real economies, in both places, are just not good and the only way, the only way, that the sovereign nations can have low interest rates, and continue on with their social policies, is if the Central Banks are in, and keeping interest rates low. We can sit here all day and argue about the right or wrong of it, but I don't think it is going to change any year soon.

Ten years after the 2008/2009 financial crisis there are still $9 trillion in negatively yielding bonds which is a phenomenon that no one would have thought possible prior, to the Great Recession. We have all entered a new kind of financial Wonderland where Tweedledum and Tweedledee are running the show. We have never, ever, before seen this kind of central bank intervention and it is just too convenient for various nations, and their politicians, to allow it to stop.

Look, when the Italian 10 year yields less than the American 10 year, you know we have entered a different Realm of existence. "Why," I asked this money manager, "do you think it will change?" He said because something, sometime, would go wrong. I agree with his statement but then we will have $19 trillion in negative yielding bonds because when you can make money from nothing, but keystrokes, then you can do whatever the heck you want.

"Contrariwise,' continued Tweedledee, 'if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn't, it ain't. That's logic."
- Lewis Carrol

I am using basically the same logic in my opinion here. No one ever thought the central banks could perform in the manner, in which they have done so, for the last ten years. No one thought it possible. Now, however, they have stepped into it, with the Hatter and Alice, and they know that they can run the Tea Party in this fashion. The central bankers, you know, are nothing but Alchemists who create gold from lead, or in the new modern era, "money from nothing" and parade it around in the Wall Street Journal and on MTV.

Now that ain't workin', that's the way you do it

Lemme tell ya, them guys ain't dumb

Maybe get a blister on your little finger

Maybe get a blister on your thumb

- Dire Straits

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.