86 YCharts TopValue Dogs For March 2019

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Includes: ABBV, ARCC, BGSF, CATO, CVI, EPM, GLPI, M, NMFC, QCOM, RWT, SBRA, SNP, SUNS, TGLS, TOT, WHF
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

YCharts tracks ten point Value and Fundamental scores as a Y Rating system for 21,846 equities. Dividend payers posting 6-10 points in both categories made this Valu list as screened 3/18/19.

Top ten broker target-estimated YChartsTopValue net gains as of 3/18/19 ranged 14.17%-76.42% from WHF, ARCC, GLPI, NMFC, QCOM, RWT, TOT, BGSF, EPM, and top dog TGLS.

Broker target-estimated top ten price upsides from AQN, M, GLPI, AHH, RWT, QCOM, TOT, BGSF, EPM, and TGLD, ranged 9.18%-71.05%.

Top 10 YChartsTopValue DiviDogs annual yields ranged 7.2% to 10.13% from CVI; TGLS; GLPI; RWT; SUNS; CATO; ARCC, SBRA; WHF; NMFC.

Analyst one-year targets indicated that ten highest yield 'safer' dividend Dow stocks could accumulate 37.28% more gain from $5k invested in the lowest priced five than from $5K invested in all ten. Little stocks securely lead the YChartsTopValue DiviDogs.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Forecast 14.17% To 76.42% Net Gains From March YChartsTopValue Ten Dividend Dogs

Six of ten top yield YChartsTopValue dividend stocks were identified as being among the top ten net gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart above). So, our dogcatcher yield-based forecast for YChartsTopValue DiviDogs was graded by Wall St. brokers as 60% accurate.

Source: YCharts

Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1,000 invested in each of the high yield stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst-estimated median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2019-20 data points. Note: one-year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to March 18, 2020, were:

Tecnoglass Inc. (TGLS) was projected to net $764.21 based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 31% more than the market as a whole.

Evolution Petroleum Corp. (EPM) was projected to net $472.33, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from four analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 12% less than the market as a whole.

BG Staffing Inc. (BGSF) was projected to net $253.49, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 28% less than the market as a whole.

Total SA (TOT) was projected to net $232.80, based on target price estimates from eight analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 35% less than the market as a whole.

Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) netted $202.93 based on a median target price estimate from six analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 57% more than the market as a whole.

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) was projected to net $174.44 based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from twenty-three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 23% more than the market as a whole.

New Mountain Finance (NMFC) was projected to net $154.37, based on target estimates from four analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 39% less than the market as a whole.

Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc. (GLPI) was projected to net $152.23 based on the median of target price estimates from thirteen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 31% more than the market as a whole.

Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC) was expected to net $148.80, based on the median of target price estimates from sixteen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 36% less than the market as a whole.

WhiteHorse Finance Inc. (WHF) was projected to net $141.74 based on dividends, plus a median of target price estimates from five analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 27% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 26.97% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 11% less than the market as a whole.

Source: si.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

40 YChartsTopValue DiviDogs By Broker Targets

Source: YCharts

This scale of broker estimated upside (or downside) for stock prices provides a scale of market popularity. Note: zero broker coverage or single broker coverage produced a zero score on the above scale. The broker upside score can be taken as an emotional component as opposed to the strictly monetary and objective dividend/price yield-driven report below.

86 YChartsTopValue DiviDogs By Yield

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top YChartsTopValue Dividend Stocks By Yield

Top ten YChartsTopValue dividend stocks selected 3/18/19 by yield represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors.

Top yielding stock, New Mountain Finance Corp. (SNP) [1] was the top of four Financial services firms in the top ten. The other three placed second, fourth, and sixth, WhiteHorse Finance Inc. (WHF) [2], Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC) [4], and Solar Senior Capital Ltd. (SUNS) [6].

Third place revealed the first of three real estate representatives led by Sabra Health Care REIT Inc. (SBRA) [3]. The other two RE representatives placed seventh, and eighth, Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT) [7], and Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc. (GLPI) [8].

In fifth place was the lone consumer cyclical representative, Cato Corp. (CATO) [5].

A lone consumer cyclical stock placed sixth. Macy's (M) [6], and the lone basic materials representative was ninth, Tecnoglass Inc. (TGLS) [9].

Finally, the energy representative placed tenth, AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) [8], to complete the YChartsTopValue DiviDogs top ten by yield for March.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top Ten YChartsTopValue DiviDogs Showed 9.18% To 71.05% Upsides To March 2020 With (31) No Downsides

Source: YCharts

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became yet another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Predicted A 37.28% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced YChartsTopValue Dividend Stocks Out of 10 To March 2020

Ten top YChartsTopValue DiviDogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, top ten YChartsTopValue dividend stocks represented five of the eleven Morningstar sectors.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected 5 Lowest-Priced Of the Top Ten Highest-Yield YChartsTopValue Dividend Stocks (32) To Fetch 26.79% Vs. (33) 19.51% Net Gains by All Ten by March 2020

Source: YCharts

$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten YChartsTopValue DiviDogs by yield were predicted to produce 37.28% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The very lowest priced YChartsTopValue stock, Tecnoglass Inc. (TGLS), was projected to deliver the best net gain of 76.42%.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-price YChartsTopValue DiviDogs; New Mountain Finance Corp. (NMFC); March 18 were: Tecnoglass Inc. (TGLS); Cato Corp. (CATO); WhiteHorse Finance Inc. (WHF); Redwood Trust Inc. (RWT), with prices ranging from $7.60 to $15.70.

Five higher-priced YChartsTopValue DiviDogs for March 18 were: Solar Senior Capital Ltd. (SUNS); Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC); Sabra Health Care REIT Inc. (SBRA); Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc. (GLPI); CVR Energy Inc. (CVI), whose prices ranged from $17.14 to $41.64.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your NASDAQ dividend dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from IndexArb.com; YCharts.com; Yahoo Finance; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. Dog photo: si.com

Disclosure: I am/we are long BGSF, PFE, CVI. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.