A 68% Chance Of 100% Gain Was Present In Uplisted Stocks Over The Last 2 Years

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Includes: ACB, AEYE, AFIN, APHA, ARPO, AVCO, AVYA, BCML, BLNK, BSGM, CCNI, CLGN, CMLS, COCP, CREX, CRON, DMAC, EXPI, FVCB, GRNQ, HIL, HNGR, IMV, LIVX, MKGI, MO, MOGO, ONCY, OPBK, OPRX, ORGS, OSIR, PLL, RIVE, ROAN, SCOR, SDI, SFET, SIGA, SILV, SNCR, SOLO, STND, TMDI, VICI, VTSI, WRTC, WTER
by: Sergio Heiber
Summary

The majority of uplisted stocks have a significanlty higher uplist price than six months prior.

The majority of uplisted stocks have a higher 52 week high than their uplist price.

The majority of uplisted stocks trade lower than their uplist price within a year.

I have been studying what effect uplisting has on the stock price of individual stocks. My first article concluded that a profit exceeding 25% was available in 65% of stocks that had uplisted during 2015 but that profit evaporated within the first year after uplisting. Only 10% of these same stocks where trading higher than their price at uplisting within the 12 months after uplisting.

My second article on uplisting took a more detailed look and reinforced my previous findings. The majority of the uplisted stocks for 2017 had extraordinary gains in the six months prior to uplisting and after uplisting before trading lower within a year.

In this article I review the 2018 uplisted stocks and compare their performance to the 2017 uplisted stocks looking for correlation and to better define patterns. I also took this opportunity to highlight noteworthy stocks within the overall group and took pleasure in citing work here on S.A. on these stocks by underfollowed authors.

The results for each of the two years are remarkably similar and also consistent with my more limited findings for the 2015 uplisted stocks.

  • More than two out of every uplisted stocks enjoyed a stock price appreciation in the six months leading to uplisting.
  • The average gain for the entire group was 26% for this time period for 2017 and 2018.
  • Almost four out of every five uplisted stocks for this two year period went on to higher 52 week highs with the entire group averaging a 48% gain.
  • The magic is temporary as within a year the majority of stocks have lower prices than their uplist price.
  • The entire group is trading on average 16% lower than their uplist price.

2017-18 Uplisted Stocks Performance

Stocks With

Uplist Price

> 6 Month Prior

Avg.

Price Change

From 6

Mos. Prior to Uplist

Stocks With 52 Wk. High

>Uplist Price

Avg. Price Change From Uplist to 52 WK. High

52 Wk. Low

+/- Uplist Price*

Trading @ Higher Price Than Uplist Price*

Recent Price

+/- Uplist Price*

2017 Uplisted Stocks 68% 23% 79% 35% -45% 42% -15%
2018 Uplisted Stocks 69% 29% 76% 60% -32% 31% -16%
Average 68% 26% 78% 48% -39% 37% -16%

* The data for the 2017 stocks was as October 2018, the time my second uplisting article was written.

Below is a sector breakdown and results for the 2018 uplisted stocks followed by a breakdown by sector of the individual stocks within that sector and a brief on some noteworthy stocks.

2018 Sector Totals For Uplisted Stocks

Sector

(how many)

Uplist Stock Price

+/- Prior Six month

Price

52 Wk.

High +/-

Uplist Price

52 Wk.

Low+/-

Uplist Price

Recent

Price

+/- Uplist Price

Biotech (13) 27% 63% -55% -36%
Technology (10) -9% 84% -63% -25%
Financial (9) 63% 25% -34% -14%
Real Estate (2) 76% 87% -26% 4%
Services (5) 37% 55% -47% 5%
Consumer Goods (4) 65% 92% -68% 8%
Material (3) -2% 38% -53% -15%
Other (2) 9% 156% -21% 109%
Totals 29% 60% -53% -38%

Source

2018 Uplisted Stocks

Biotech had the most uplisted stocks for 2017 and 2018. For 2018, I included pharmaceutical and health companies in the same group. It made sense to me when I reviewed what their respective products and development issues where and in order to get a larger sampling in the same group. It resulted in taming the volatility. The 2017 group had an average gain of 79% in the six months leading to uplisting, 36% higher 52 week high than uplist price and went on to losses of 53% at the time I reviewed them in October 2018. The 2018 group still had fireworks though as evidenced by the results below.

The stock that caught my eye in this group was BioSig (BSGM). This company is rolling out its Pure EP system, a device used by electrophysiologists to treat patients with heart problems. The company has received coverage from various medical publications, has recently received FDA approval for its device and just last month began treating human patients. This product addresses a huge market opportunity. Should the product experience market success, BSGM is likely to be acquired by one of its giant competitors.

Biotech/ Pharma Price 6 Mos. Prior To Uplist Uplist Price

52 Wk. High

+/- From

Uplist

52 Wk. Low

+/- From

Uplist

Recent Price

+/-From

Uplist

CollPlant

(CLGN)

7.15

8.99

26%

8.73

-3%

3.13

-63%

5.90

-34%

Cocrystal Pharma

(COCP)

8.55

5.75

-33%

6.45

12%

1.51

-74%

2.80

-51%

Orgenesis

(ORGS)

5.40

13.40

148%

12.14

-9%

3.87

-71%

5.00

-63%

Siga Technologies

(SIGA)

3.17

6.08

92%

8.47

39%

4.66

-38%

5.79

-32%

IMV Inc.

(IMV)

6.14

6.88

12%

7.21

5%

3.61

-48%

3.61

-48%

Oncolytics Biotech

(ONCY)

5.30

6.76

28%

8.20

21%

1.64

-76%

1.93

-71%

Aerpio Pharmaceuticals

(ARPO)

4.51

3.88

-18%

5.00

31%

1.00

-74%

1.10

-72%

Titan Medical

(TMDI)

Osiris Pharmaceuticals

(OSIR)

9.05

6.15

5.90

-35%

11.05

80%

7.75

31%

19.30

75%

.19

-97%

7.01

-37%

2.98

-49%

19.02

72%

Hanger

(HNGR)

15.70

23.65

51%

24.50

4%

15.60

-34%

18.28

-29%

BioSig Technologies

(BSGM)

4.25

5.66

33%

7.32

29%

3.75

-34%

6.56

16%

Avalon GlobalCare Care

(AVCO)

1.90

2.61

37%

13.50

417%

1.45

-44%

5.18

98%

Diamedica Therapeutics

(DMAC)

8.36

5.95

-29%

13.77

131%

2.46

-59%

3.79

-36%

Average

27%

63%

-55%

-15%

Technology

Price 6 Mos. Prior To

Uplist

Uplist

Price

52 Wk. High

+/- From

Uplist

52 Wk. Low

+/- From

Uplist

Recent

Price

+/- From

Uplist

Avaya

(AVYA)

-------- 21.00

23.04

10%

13.31

-42%

13.54

-41%

Monaker Group

(MKGI)

6.12

4.94

-19%

4.89

-1%

.89

-82%

2.16

-56%

Blink Charging

(BLNK)

9.18

3.17

-65%

8.65

173%

1.28

-60%

2.86

-10%

LiveXLive Media

(LIVX)

4.00

3.83

-4%

11.11

190%

2.52

-77%

5.73

-48%

VirTra

(VTSI)

5.10

6.30

24%

7.36

17%

3.00

-52%

4.38

-30%

ComScore

(SCOR)

28.42

24.05

-15%

26.20

9%

12.65

-47%

20.88

-13%

AudioEye

(AEYE)

6.50

7.30

12%

12.40

70%

.18

-90%

9.55

-23%

Safe-T Group

(SFET)

20.00

11.00

-45%

40.00

263%

1.41

-87%

2.87

-74%

Synchromos

(SNCR)

10.24

6.24

-39%

12.12

94%

3.90

-38%

6.41

3%

Creative Realities

(CREX)

6.00

2.95

-51%

6.20

110%

.10

-98%

2.40

-61%

Average

-9% 84% -63% -25%

The Technology group, as presented above, surprisingly didn't perform as well as the overall uplisted group in the six months leading to uplisting but had on average a 52 week high 84% higher than uplist price. This result was similar to the 1987 average when combining the six months up to uplisting to the 52 week high.

Out of the stocks in this group, Avaya (AVYA) caught my eye. Unlike most of the uplisted stocks, this is not a small cap. The company recently came out of Chapter 11 bankruptcy and turned its focus away from hardware to software and services. It is the leader in the contact center communication industry and provides services to over 90% of the Fortune 500 Companies. An analyst recently set a price target of $22/share, 67% higher than the current price citing the market opportunity in cloud services. Bridger Research's recent SA article provides an excellent point for due diligence.

The 2017 Financial group of stocks were solid performers as they were the only sector that had a higher price at the time I reviewed them than their uplisting price. There is a difference in the 2018 group. While 2017's stocks where predominantly banks, the newer group includes a marijuana financing company and financial technology companies. The 2018 stocks took off in the first six months leading to uplisting and then on average went into negative territory within the first year of trading.

The only financial uplisted stock to buck the negative results of its peer group is Cronos (CRON) a firm that invests in marijuana growers. The stock is up over 100% from its uplist price just over a year ago. It is receiving buying interest from mutual funds as well as from Altria (MO) which is in position to own a majority stake in the company.

Financial

Price 6 Mos. Prior To

Uplist

Uplist

Price

52 Week High

+/- From

Uplist

52 Week Low

+/- From

Uplist

Recent

Price

+/- From Uplist

Cronos Group

(CRON)

1.81

9.17

41%

25.10

174%

5.12

-44%

19.23

109%

OP Bancorp

(OPBK)

9.30

12.34

123%

14.10

14%

8.07

-35%

8.17

-34%

Mogo Finance Tech

(MOGO)

2.71

4.18

236%

4.00

-4%

1.98

-53%

2.30

-45%

BayComm Corp

(BCML)

19.00

23.00

21%

26.94

17%

17.19

-25%

20.80

-10%

Standard AVB Financial

(STND)

29.90

31.75

6%

39.45

24%

28.26

-11%

28.73

-10%

Greenpro Financial Group

(GRNQ)

----- 6.00

3.00

-50%

1.99

-66%

1.99

-66%

American Finance Trust

(AFIN)

------ 13.00

18.50

42%

10.35

-20%

10.76

-17%

FVC Bancop

(FVCB)

17.53

20.00

14%

21.20

6%

15.53

-22%

17.10

-15%

Riverview Financial

(RIVE)

13.25

14.25

8%

14.55

2%

10.11

-29%

11.20

-21%

Average 63% 25% -34% -14%

There are only two real estate companies in the 2018 group of uplisted stocks and the two are quite different than other stocks in the uplisted group. Vici Properties (VICI) is a REIT concentrating in gambling, hospitality and entertainment. eXp World Holding (EXPI) is focused on providing cloud based real estate brokerage services and has attracted coverage from SA authors with different points of view.

Real Estate

Price 6 Mos. Prior To

Uplist

Uplist

Price

52 Wk. High

+/- From

Uplist

52 Wk. Low

+/- From

Uplist

Recent

Price

+/- From

Uplist

Vici Properties

(VICI)

18.55

20.61

11%

22.37

9%

17.58

-15%

21.87

6%

eXp World Holdings

(EXPI)

5.99

10.55

76%

19.72

87%

6.61

-37%

10.77

2%

Average 44% 49% -26% 4%
Service

Price 6 Mos. Prior To

Uplist

Uplist

Price

52 Wk. High

+/- From

Uplist

52 Wk. Low

+/- From

Uplist

Recent

Price

+/- From

Uplist

Hill International

(HIL)

3.85

4.30

12%

6.11

42%

2.63

-39%

2.84

-34%

Anbow Educational Holding

(AMbO)

3.50

4.03

15%

8.00

99%

2.00

-50%

6.34

57%

Command Center

(CCNI)

5.60

5.76

3%

6.40

11%

3.43

-40%

3.98

-31%

OptimizeRX Corp

(OPRX)

Cumulus Media

(CMLS)

4.56

14.50

10.40

128%

18.10

25%

18.39

77%

26.00

44%

4.29

-59%

9.70

-46%

13.30

28%

19.10

6%

Average 37% 55% -47% 5%

The Service sector uplisted stocks were the group that most closely matched the overall group average with the exception that most of this group was trading at higher prices than their price at uplist.

Optimize RX (OPRX) caught my eye last year but unfortunately I did not follow through on looking at it more closely as it performed very well. OPRX provides a digital connection between pharmaceutical companies and medical practitioners. Fellow SA contributor Jenks Jumps put together a nice write up on OPRX's future potential drivers.

The Consumer Goods group has some explosive price jumps, for example, Alkaline Water (WTER) soared on its run to uplisting but the wildest stock in this group is Electromeccanica Vehicles (SOLO), a manufacturer of a three wheeled EV vehicles which had a one day pop of over 200% recently but currently trades at half its 52 week high. Vincent Ventures disputes the company's claim on pre-orders and offers other criticism of the company in his SA editor's pick article.

Consumer Goods

Price 6 Mos Prior To Uplist

Uplist

Price

52 Wk. High

+/- From

Uplist

52 Wk. Low

+/- From

Uplist

Recent

Price

+/-From

Uplist

Aurora Cannabis

(ACB)

6.45

7.70

19%

12.52

63%

4.05

-47%

9.03

17%

Aphria Inc.

(APHA)

7.65

12.00

57%

16.86

41%

3.75

-69%

9.53

-21%

Alkaline Water

(WTER)

1.46

5.18

255%

5.56

7%

.85

-84%

2.71

-48%

Electromeccanica Vehicles

(SOLO)

9.12

2.77

-70%

9.90

257%

.90

-68%

4.46

61%

Average

65% 92% -66% 8%
Material

Price 6 Mos.

Prior To

Uplist

Uplist

Price

52 Wk. High

+/- From

Uplist

52 Wk. Low

+/- From

Uplist

Resent

Price

+/- From

Uplist

Roan Resources

(ROAN)

------ 16.42

18.95

15%

4.95

-70%

6.00

-63%

Piedmont Lithium

(PLL)

18.25

13.00

-29%

17.98

38%

5.75

-58%

7.85

-40%

Silvercrest Metals

(SILV)

1.80

2.26

26%

3.89

60%

1.58

-30%

3.60

59%

Average -2% 38% -53% -15%

The Material sector stocks, as outlined above, were the least volatile in the group but offered the lowest opportunity for profit.

And finally we have two companies that don't fit into normal sectors. Standard Diversified (SDI) is into insurance, tobacco products and outdoor signs. Take a peek at a recent high quality piece on this stock by Paveen Sharon. Wrap Technologies (WRAP) manufactures a policing tool that you probably haven't heard of but will. This stock is very well profiled by follow SA contributor Croatoan Capital.

Other

Price 6 Mos.

Prior To Uplist

Uplist

Price

52 Wk. High

+/- From

Uplist

52 Wk. Low

+/- From

Uplist

Recent

Price

+/- From

Uplist

Standard Diversified

(SDI)

10.50

9.80

-7%

22.49

129%

9.15

-7%

20.80

112%

Wrap Technologies

(WRTC)

2.55

3.19

25%

9.00

182%

2.10

-35%

6.54

105%

Average

9%

156%

-21%

109%

Conclusion

Each time I take a look at the uplisting universe I look a little deeper but the data is holding up. Biotechs are the most volatile sector while Material stocks are the least explosive. The majority of stocks tend to run up within the six months leading to uplisting and continue to run to new highs afterwards before selling off. There are potential gems among the stocks not giving up their profitable course. Investing in uplisting stocks, if you pick the right ones, can reap unmatchable returns.

There are many companies that claim they will be seeking to uplist but never do, so caution is advised. There are also many companies that pump the share price and sell off shares at uplisting. Due diligence is necessary for those looking to capture gains from potentially uplisting stocks. Another way to capture the potential gain is to buy recently uplisted stocks that have not dropped like there is no tomorrow and have reasonable valuations. A list of newly uplisted stocks is provided monthly at PubCeo.Com.

Honestly, I have to admit that this has been a learning experience for me and I think that I am ready to start using what I've learned. I cover mostly small cap stocks and small cap themes and will focus more attention on uplisted stocks as a result of my findings.

I hope that you enjoyed this article and click to follow me. Discussion and idea exchange is welcome.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.