Gold Consolidates As Commodities Rise And The Dollar Stalls

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Includes: GLD, GSG, UUP
by: Richard Suttmeier
Summary

The gold shares ETF is above its semiannual value level at $120.36 and just below its monthly and quarterly pivots at $122.00 and $122.55, respectively.

The commodities ETF is above its 200-day SMA at $16.36 with its quarterly risky level at $17.13.

The long dollar ETF continues to trade between its annual pivot at $25.47 and its semiannual risky level at $26.39.

Here are the daily charts for the gold, commodities and the dollar ETFs.

The gold trust ETF tracks the spot price of gold and is said to be backed by gold bars in vaults in London.

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD)

Daily Chart For GLD Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

The gold ETF ($121.83 on April 12) is up 0.5% so far in 2019 and is 9.7% above its Aug. 15 low of $111.06. GLD is trading between its 200-day simple moving average at $118.20 and its 50-day simple moving average at $123.40. Beware that the weekly chart is negative with the “reversion to the mean” at $118.26.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to its semiannual value level at $120.36 and reduce holdings on strength to the Feb. 20 high at $127.21. My annual value level lags at $110.38 with monthly and quarterly pivots at $122.00 and $122.53, respectively.

The commodity ETF is heavily-weighted to energy by about 60%.

iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GSG)

Daily Chart For GSG Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

The commodities ETF ($16.62 on April 12) is up 18.5% so far in 2019 and up 23.1% since its Dec. 26 low of $13.50 thanks mainly to the strength in Nymex crude oil. This ETF is down 11.6% from its Oct. 3 high of $18.81. GSG is now above its 200-day simple moving average at $16.36 which targets its quarterly risky level at $17.13.

Investor Strategy: Buy GSG on weakness to its 200-day SMA at $16.36 and reduce holdings on strength to its quarterly risky level at $17.13. My monthly value level lags at $14.85. The weekly chart is positive, but its weekly stochastic reading is above 90.00 as an “inflating parabolic bubble.”

The US Dollar ETF is a basket of currencies that includes the Dollar vs. Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc.

Invesco DB USD Bullish ETF (NYSEARCA:UUP)

Daily Chart For UUP Courtesy of Refinitiv XENITH

The dollar ETF ($25.96 on April 12) is up 2.0% so far in 2019 and up 12.3% since trading as low as $23.12 in early 2018. UUP is above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at $25.81 and $25.51, respectively. The weekly chart is positive but overbought with its “reversion to the mean” at $25.04.

Investor Strategy: Buy weakness to annual and quarterly value levels at $25.47 and $23.89, respectively, and reduce holdings on strength to monthly and semiannual risky levels at $26.29 and $26.39, respectively.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.