103 Broker-Favored Dividend Dogs In April

Apr. 20, 2019 3:42 AM ETARLP, CCR, CHMI, LRFC, ET, GNL, KNOP, OFS, OMP, RC, TCPC, USDP, AWCMY, CNXM4 Comments

Summary

  • YCharts tracks broker target rankings for all broker-covered dividend stocks. Dividend payers posting >4% target upsides made this list of 103 as of 4/18/19.
  • Top 10 broker price target upsides as of 4/18/19 ranged 37.30%-155.10% from ADES, GES, CAMT, EPM, AWCMY, TEF, CATO, TGLS, TAXA and top dog NHTC.
  • Broker target-estimated top 10 dividend annual yields from KNOP, RC, OFS, CHMI, ARLP, CPTA, GNL, CCR, USDP, and AWCMY ranged 10.39%-16.76%.
  • Top 10 broker-favored net gains ranged 14.92% to 34.38% from TCPC, RC, OFS, CCR, CPTA, ENBL, OMP, GNL, CNXM, and ARLP.
  • Analyst one-year targets alleged 10 highest yield favorite stocks could accumulate 18.57% LESS gain from $5k invested in the lowest priced five than from $5k invested in all ten. Big, high-priced stocks returned to lead the broker favorites.
  • This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, The Dividend Dog Catcher. Start your free trial today »

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Forecast 22.15% To 42.57% Net Gains From Their April Favorite Top 10 Dividend Dogs

Six of ten top yield broker favorite dividend stocks were identified as being among the top 10 net gainers for the coming year based on analyst one-year target prices (They are tinted gray in the chart below). So, our dogcatcher yield-based forecast for broker favorite dividend dogs was graded by Wall St. brokers as 60% accurate.

Source: YCharts

Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1,000 invested in each of the high-yield stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst-estimated median target prices as reported by YCharts created the 2019-20 data points. Note: One-year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to April 18, 2020 were:

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) was projected to net $435.72, based on the median of target estimates from four analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 1% over the market as a whole.

CNX Midstream Partners LP (CNXM) was projected to net $421.17, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from nine analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 29% more than the market as a whole.

Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL) was projected to net $403.19, based on target price estimates from three analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 29% less than the market as a whole.

Oasis Midstream Partners (OMP) was projected to net $367.81, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from eight analysts, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for OMP.

Enable Midstream Partners (ENBL) was projected to net $367.64, based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from eleven analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 39% more than the market as a whole.

Capitala Finance Corp. (CPTA) was projected to net $286.02, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from six analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 11% more than the market as a whole.

CONSOL Coal Resources LP (CCR) was expected to net $281.99, based on the median of target price estimates from four analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 2% less than the market as a whole.

OFS Capital Corp. (OFS) was projected to net $263.82, based on the median of target price estimates from three analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 30% less than the market as a whole.

Ready Capital Corp. (RC) netted $251.40, based on a median target price estimate from eight analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 21% less than the market as a whole.

BlackRock TCP Capital (TCPC) was projected to net $221.47, based on dividends, plus a median of target price estimates from four analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 19% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 33% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these 10 dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average risks 12% less than the market as a whole.

Source: Popsugar.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where, and (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest-yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are in fact best called "underdogs".

50 Broker Favorite Dogs By Price Target Upsides

Source: YCharts

This scale of broker estimated upside (or downside) for stock prices provides a scale of market popularity. Note: Zero broker coverage or single broker coverage produced a zero score on the above scale. The broker upside score can be taken as an emotional component as opposed to the strictly monetary and objective dividend/price yield-driven report below.

50 Broker Favorite Dogs By Yield

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top Broker Favorite Stocks Ranked By Yield

Top 10 broker favorite dividend stocks selected 4/18/19 by yield represented four of eleven Morningstar sectors. Top yielding stock Alumina Ltd. (OTCQX:AWCMY) [1] was at the top of three basic materials representatives. The others slotted in the third and sixth places, CONSOL Coal Resources LP [3], and Alliance Resource Partners LP [6].

In second place was the first of two industrials representatives, USD Partners LP (USDP) [2]. The other industrials rep placed tenth, KNOT Offshore Partners LP (KNOP) [10].

Tops of three real estate firms placed fourth in the top ten, Global Net Lease Inc. [4]. The others placed seventh, and ninth, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp (CHMI) [7], and Ready Capital Corp. (RC) [9].

Two financial services placed fifth and eighth by yield, Capitala Finance Corp [5], and OFS Capital Corp. [8], to complete the Broker Favorite top 10 by yield for April.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top 10 Broker Favorite Dogs Showed 14.92% To 34.38% Upsides To March 2020 With (31) No Downsiders

Source: YCharts

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became yet another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Predicted An 18.57% Disadvantage For Five Highest-Yield, Lowest-Priced Broker Favorites Of 10 Top Stocks To April 2020

Ten 10 broker favorite dividend dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, top 10 broker favorite dividend stocks represented four of the eleven Morningstar sectors.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected Five Lowest Priced of the 10 Highest-Yield Broker Favorite Stocks (32) To Fetch 21.21% Vs. (33) 26.04% Net Gains from All 10 By April 2020

Source: YCharts

$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top 10 broker favorite dividend kennel by yield were predicted to produce 18.57% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all 10. The ninth lowest priced broker favorite top yield stock, Alliance Resource Partners LP, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 43.57%.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-price broker favorite top 10 dividend stocks April 18 were: Alumina Ltd., Capitala Finance Corp., and USD Partners LP. Dividend stocks for March 15 were: OFS Capital Corp, and Ready Capital Corp., with prices ranging from $6.73 to $14.63.

Five higher-priced broker favorite dividend stocks for April 18 were: Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp., CONSOL Coal Resources LP, Global Net Lease Inc., Alliance Resource Partners LP, and KNOT Offshore Partners LP, whose prices ranged from $17.31 to $20.01.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of 10 reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your NASDAQ dividend dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

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This article was written by

Fredrik Arnold profile picture
28.35K Followers
Simple, straightforward 7-step analysis that finds lucrative income stocks.
Fredrik Arnold is my pen name. In 2012 I retired from doing quality service analysis in Boston and moved to North Carolina in 2013, thence to Central Oregon in 2018. My fascination with capital preservation, long-term investments, and trading systems keeps me blogging for Seeking Alpha. My articles focus on dividend yields, analyst median 1 yr targets, free cash flow yields, and one-year total returns as stock trading indicators. These are essential tools for catching the most valuable dividend dogs. My dividend dogcatcher premium site in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace shows annual real-time trading results since 2015.

Disclosure: I am/we are long ADES, BGSF. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. Dog photo: popsugar.com.

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