Tesla's Model 3 Sales Fall 82% In Norway And 76% In The Netherlands

Apr. 24, 2019 11:14 AM ETTesla, Inc. (TSLA)AUDVF, POAHF, POAHY, TTM, VLKAF, VLKPF, VWAGY363 Comments
Anton Wahlman profile picture
Anton Wahlman


  • April is off to a horrible start for Tesla in the countries in Europe where we get daily sales (registration) data: Norway and The Netherlands.
  • Compared to March, the daily sales rate in Norway in April thus far is down 82%, and in The Netherlands it’s down 76%.
  • For the more expensive and higher-margin Model S and X, Tesla is losing market share to Audi and Jaguar’s electric cars in the most dramatic of ways.
  • Audi eTron and Jaguar i-Pace are outselling Tesla Model X and S combined by a factor of 5.7 to 1 in Norway, and 9.7 to 1 in The Netherlands.
  • Tesla usually makes up for an April shortfall in the last month of the quarter, but this is a very deep hole from which Tesla now has to dig.
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As of this writing, we are 23 days into the second quarter, and it’s time to take the temperature on Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) sales from two of the countries in Europe where we get daily sales reports: Norway and The Netherlands. We get daily reports from Spain too, but those are so small for Tesla that they are not material: here.

Norway: Down 82%

Norway is of course Tesla’s superstar geography, as it's for almost all other electric automakers. In March 2019, battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) were 58% of sales in that country, explained as always by de-facto giant subsidies: here. In Norway, the way it works is that non plug-in cars are taxed extremely heavily, whereas BEVs are essentially not taxed at all. As a result, it gets the highest share of electric cars sold in the world by a wide margin.

Everyone were in awe with how many cars Tesla sold in Norway in March: 5,315 units. Divide by 31 days and you get 171 per day, on average. So where are we in April thus far? Here is the real-time sales chart: here.

In the first 23 days of April, Tesla sold 680 Model 3 units. That’s 30 per day. 30 per day is an 82% reduction from the March daily sales rate of 171.

Actually, during the month of April, Tesla’s Model 3 sales rate in Norway has fallen dramatically inside the month itself. Let’s start by looking at the first two weeks of April: 625 were sold, which divided by 14 days were a sales rate of 45 cars per day. That’s still a 74% decline from March, but here is what happened in the last seven days (April 17-23): Only 32 were sold. That’s less than five per day.

Five per day constitutes a 97% reduction in

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This article was written by

Anton Wahlman profile picture
I am a former sell-side analyst -- UBS 1996-2002, Needham 2002-2006 and ThinkEquity 2006-2008. These days I review automobiles and other technology products, as well as analyze the automotive and technology industries, and coming up with long/short ideas. I also continue to write (less frequently) on macroeconomics and politics.

Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: At the time of submitting this article for publication, the author was short TSLA and long FCAU and GM. However, positions can change at any time. The author regularly attends press conferences, new vehicle launches and equivalent, hosted by most major automakers.

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