Merk Research: U.S. Business Cycle Report May 2019


The U.S. economic expansion will likely continue over the next few months.

My primary concern remains weakness in the global economy (mainly in the tradable goods sectors as the service sectors are holding up just fine).

Recession risk appears elevated over roughly the 1-5 year period, with some measures suggesting the economy might be operating above capacity, specifically with respect to the output gap and laborforcecapacityutlization.

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.