Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 18.32% To 46.69% Net Gains For Ten Top Kiplinger Mayflower Dogs Into 2020
Six of ten top Kiplinger Mayflower dividend stocks by yield were among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, this yield-based forecast for these May dogs was graded by Wall St. Wizards as 60% accurate.
Projections were based on estimated dividends from $1,000 invested in each of the highest yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts. Note: one-year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to May 8, 2020 were:
Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) was projected to net $466.86, based on a median of target price estimates from sixteen analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 4% more than the market as a whole.
Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL) netted $372.54 based on a median of estimates from three analysts, plus dividends. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk, 30% less than the market as a whole.
Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) was projected to net $277.48, based on the median of target estimates from nineteen analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 24% less than the market as a whole.
Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) was projected to net $259.27, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from twenty-three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 5 % less than the market as a whole.
Monmouth Real Estate (MNR) was projected to net $215.87, based on a median of target price estimate from seven analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 21% less than the market as a whole.
AT&T Inc. (T) was projected to net $199.21, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from twenty-nine analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 42% less than the market as a whole.
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) was projected to net $196.33, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from seventeen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 14% above the market as a whole.
Shaw Communications Inc. (SJR) was projected to net $191.64, based on the median of target price estimates from twenty-seven analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 15% less than the market as a whole.
Magellan Midstream Partners (MMP) was projected to net $189.91, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from twenty-one analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 15% less than the market as a whole.
Altria Group Inc. (MO) was projected to net $183.24 based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from seventeen brokers, less transaction fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 65% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 25.52% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. These gain estimates were subject to average risks 20% less than the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".
50 Top Kiplinger Mayflowers By Target Gains
Top 50 Kiplinger Mayflower Dogs By Yield
Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top Kiplinger Mayflower Dividend Stocks By Yield
Top ten Kiplinger Mayflower stocks selected 5/8/19 by yield represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors. First place was claimed by the first of two real estate sector representatives, Global Net Lease Inc. . The other real estate representative placed fifth, Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. (APLE) .
Four from the energy sector placed third, fourth, seventh, and tenth: Vermilion Energy Inc. , Shell Midstream Partners LP (SHLX) , Magellan Midstream Partners LP , and Enterprise Products Partners LP .
A lone communications services representative emerged in sixth place, AT&T Inc. .
Finally, one consumer defensive representative placed ninth, Altria Group Inc. , to complete the Kiplinger Mayflower top ten by yield.
Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top Ten Kiplinger Mayflower Dogs Showed 19.98% Average Upsides While (31) Four Lowly Downsiders Ranged -1.54% To -11.8%
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.
Analysts Forecast A 3.42% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Kiplinger Mayflower Dividend Stocks To 2020
Ten top Kiplinger Mayflower dividend dogs were culled by yield for this update. Yield (dividend / price) results provided by YCharts did the ranking.
As noted above, top ten Kiplinger Potpourri dividend dogs selected 5/8/19 showing the highest dividend yields represented five of eleven in the Morningstar sector scheme.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced Of The Top Ten Highest-Yield Kiplinger Dogs (32) Delivering 19.14% Vs. (33) 18.5% Net Gains by All Ten Come May 2020
$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend Kiplinger Mayflower kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 3.42% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The fifth lowest priced selection, Vermilion Energy Inc., was projected to deliver the best net gain of 46.69%.
The five lowest-priced top-yield Kiplinger Mayflower dividend dogs as of May 8 were: Gladstone Capital Corp., Apple Hospitality REIT Inc., Global Net Lease Inc., Shell Midstream Partners LP, and Vermilion Energy Inc., with prices ranging from $9.41 to $23.74.
Five higher-priced Kiplinger Mayflower dividend dogs as of May 8 were: Enterprise Products Partners LP, AT&T Inc., Main Street Capital Corp., Altria Group Inc., and Magellan Midstream Partners LP, whose prices ranged from $28.48 to $60.46.
The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Kiplinger stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: sunset.com
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Disclosure: I am/we are long T, TJX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.