Tracking Ken Fisher's Fisher Asset Management Portfolio - Q1 2019 Update

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Includes: AAPL, AAWW, ABB, ABEV, ADBE, AMX, AMZN, ASML, ASX, AXP, AZN, AZPN, BA, BABA, BAP, BASFY, BBD, BBL, BBVA, BIDU, BNPQY, BP, BUD, CFRUY, CHE, CLF, COP, COST, CRARY, CRM, CSCO, CVX, DPZ, EWBC, FANUF, FCX, GE, GOOG, GOOGL, GSK, GTLS, HD, HDB, HEI, HES, HRC, HSBC, INFY, ING, INTC, ISNPY, ITUB, JD, JNJ, JPM, LE, LFUS, LLY, LRLCY, LVMUY, MA, MELY, MRAAY, MRK, MSFT, NFLX, NSRGY, NTES, NVDA, NVO, NVS, ORCL, PEP, PFE, PG, RDS.A, RIO, RJF, SAN, SAP, SBGSY, SCCO, SCGLY, SF, SFTBY, SIEGY, SIVB, SLB, SMCAY, SMFG, SMG, SNY, SSYS, STE, TCEHY, TDY, TOELY, TOT, TSM, TTC, UBS, UTX, V, VALE, VCISY, VECO, VRNT, VSH, WB, WMGI, WMT, WST, XOM, YELP
by: John Vincent
Summary

Fisher’s 13F portfolio value increased from $73.22B to $85.30B in Q1 2019.

Visa, Amazon.com, Apple, Microsoft, and Alibaba Group Holdings are the largest five individual stock positions.

Fisher has substantial stakes in several ETFs/ETNs and hundreds of very small positions. Together they account for more than one-third of the 13F portfolio.

This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Kenneth Fisher’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Fisher Asset Management’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 04/22/2019. Please visit our Tracking Kenneth Fisher's Fisher Asset Management Holdings article for an idea on his investment style and philosophy and our previous update highlighting the fund’s moves in Q4 2018.

This quarter, Fisher’s 13F portfolio value increased ~17% from $73.22B to $85.30B. The number of holdings decreased from 866 to 862. Significantly large positions increased from 66 to 67. The five largest individual stock positions are Visa Inc. (V), Amazon.com (AMZN), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA). Together, they account for ~15% of the 13F stock portfolio.

Note: Fisher manages ~50,000 private client accounts and over 175 institutional accounts. Each such portfolio is personalized to client requirements, and beating the S&P is not the focus for many of them. "13F Portfolio performance," which would be the performance of the sum total of all such monies in 13F securities, is an unknown. To know more about Ken Fisher, check out his research papers (most notably in Behavioral Finance) and investment books.

Stake Increases

Salesforce.com (CRM) and Adobe Inc. (ADBE): These two positions saw large increases in the last two quarters. The CRM position saw a ~180% increase last quarter at prices between $121 and $160, and another ~55% increase this quarter at prices between $130 and $167. The stock is now at ~$158 and the stake is now at ~1% of the portfolio. ADBE is a 0.90% portfolio stake that saw a ~300% increase last quarter at prices between $205 and $275, and another ~75% increase this quarter at prices between $216 and $272. The stock is now at $272.

Visa Inc.: The Visa position was first purchased in 2012 at much lower prices compared to the current price of ~$160. The size of the stake has more than tripled in the last six years through incremental purchases almost every quarter. The position is now the largest stake at 3.51% of the portfolio.

Amazon.com: AMZN is the second-largest individual stock position at 3.48% of the portfolio. The stake is from 2011, and the stock price has risen over nine-fold during the holding period: the cost basis is ~$200 compared to the current price of $1840. Q2 2016 saw a ~20% selling at prices between $586 and $728. There was another ~16% selling in Q2 2017 at prices between $885 and $1011. The three quarters through Q1 2018 had seen a ~15% increase at prices between $935 and $1600, while the following quarter saw a similar reduction at prices between $1370 and $1750. There were minor increases in the last three quarters.

Apple Inc.: AAPL is a top-three 2.94% individual stock position that was built up in 2012 at prices between $60 and $72. The original stake was increased by ~60% in Q2 2013 at prices between $59 and $65. There was a ~9% trimming in Q2 2017 at prices between $141 and $156. The stock currently trades at ~$189. The last seven quarters have seen a combined ~25% increase at prices between $142 and $233.

Microsoft Corporation: MSFT is a top-five 2.77% of the portfolio position. It is a very long-term stake that has been in the portfolio for well over a decade. The last seven quarters have seen a combined ~25% increase at prices between $69 and $118. The stock is now at ~$125.

Alibaba Group Holdings: BABA is a 2.47% of the portfolio stake. The original position was from Q2 2015 at prices between $81 and $93. Q1 2017 saw a two-thirds increase at prices between $88 and $110. That was followed with a ~90% increase next quarter at prices between $107 and $144. The stock currently trades at ~$175. There was a ~12% stake increase over the last six quarters.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG, GOOGL): GOOG was a very small position that was built up to a substantial 2% stake in 2011 at prices between $242 and $301. The stock has more than tripled, and currently trades at $1120. The position stands at 2.18% of the portfolio. There was a ~14% reduction in Q2 2017 at prices between $823 and $984. Q1 2018 saw an ~11% stake increase at prices between $1000 and $1176, and that was followed with minor increases in the last four quarters.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE): PFE is a very long-term 2.12% position that has been in the portfolio for well over a decade.The original stake was almost sold out in the 2009-10 time frame and was rebuilt in the next two years at prices between $17.50 and $25. The stock is currently at $40.66. The last five quarters have seen a ~17% increase at prices between $34 and $46.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): JNJ is a 1.89% of the portfolio position. Around two-thirds of the stake was purchased in 2008 at prices between $55 and $72, and most of the rest in 2011 at prices between $58 and $68. The stock currently trades at ~$137. There was a ~12% stake increase in Q1 2018, and that was followed with a similar reduction in Q3 2018. The last two quarters have seen minor increases.

Cisco Systems (CSCO), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), and Itau Unibanco (ITUB): These three positions had seen large increases last quarter. The 1.80% CSCO stake saw a ~35% increase at prices between $40 and $49, and the stock is currently at $52.02. RDS.A is a ~1% of the portfolio position increased by ~70% last quarter at prices between $55.50 and $69.50. The stock currently trades at $64.11. The 0.46% ITUB position saw a two-thirds increase at prices between $7.25 and $9.35, and it is now at $8.01. All three stakes saw minor increases this quarter.

Intel Corporation (INTC): The bulk of the 1.62% portfolio stake in INTC was built in 2008 in the high teens. The position has seen consistent incremental buying since 2013. There was a ~10% stake increase in Q1 2018 at prices between $42.50 and $52.50, and the stock is at $45.17. The last four quarters have also seen minor increases.

American Express (AXP): AXP has been in the portfolio since 2012. The original position was around 9M shares purchased at an average cost in the $50s, and the current stake is 10.97M shares. The last four quarters saw a combined ~8% stake increase. The stock is now at ~$117, and the stake is at 1.41% of the portfolio.

Walmart Stores (WMT): The bulk of the 1.19% WMT position was purchased in Q2 2016 at prices between $65 and $73. Q4 2017 saw a ~45% stake increase at prices between $78 and $100, and that was followed with a ~12% increase next quarter. The stock is now at ~$100. The last four quarters have also seen a combined ~7% increase.

Tencent Holdings ADR (OTCPK:TCEHY): The majority of the ~1% TCEHY stake was purchased in Q2 2017. The quarter saw a 13.5M share purchase at prices between $29 and $37. The stock is now at $47.07. The last seven quarters have seen incremental purchases. The current position is at ~19.9M shares.

Home Depot (HD): HD is a ~1% of the 13F portfolio position first purchased in 2012 at prices between $42 and $65. Q2 2017 saw a ~38% selling at prices between $146 and $159, and that was followed with another 28% reduction in Q4 2017 at prices between $150 and $190. There was a reversal next quarter: a ~14% stake increase at prices between $172 and $207, and that was followed with minor increases in the last four quarters. The stock is now at ~$192.

UBS AG GRS (UBS): UBS is a 0.73% of the 13F portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $17 and $21.50. The original stake was reduced by around one-third in Q4 2013 at prices between $19 and $22. Q1 2014 saw an about-turn, as the position was increased by ~37% at prices between $18.50 and $21.50, and the following quarter saw an additional 47% stake increase at prices between $18 and $21.50. In Q4 2014, the pattern reversed, as the position was reduced by ~40%. The three quarters through Q4 2017 had seen a two-thirds stake increase at prices between $12.25 and $23. The stock currently trades at $11.81. The last three quarters saw minor increases.

Total SA (TOT): The 1.20% TOT stake was mostly purchased in Q3 2018 at prices between $59 and $65. The stock is currently below that range at $53.

AstraZeneca plc (AZN), Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ADR (BUD), BHP Billiton (BBL), Rio Tinto (RIO), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), SoftBank Group ADR (OTCPK:SFTBY), Sanofi ADR (SNY), SAP AG ADR (SAP), HSBC plc (HSBC), Oracle Corporation (ORCL), Novo-Nordisk A/S ADR (NVO), Novartis AG ADR (NVS), Merck Inc. (MRK), Siemens AG (OTCPK:SIEGY), L'Oreal Co. ADR (OTCPK:LRLCY), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), GlaxoSmithKline plc ADR (GSK), LVMH Moet Hennssy ADR (OTCPK:LVMUY), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Chevron Inc. (CVX), ING Groep NV ADR (ING), United Technologies (UTX), Eli Lilly (LLY), Banco Santander SA ADR (SAN), BNP Paribas ADR (OTCQX:BNPQY), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), and Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB): These small positions (less than ~1% of the 13F portfolio) were increased this quarter.

Stake Decreases

Procter & Gamble (PG): PG is a long-term 0.61% of the 13F portfolio position that has been in the portfolio since before the financial crisis. The original position was increased by just over 75% in 2012 at prices between $60 and $70. There had since been a ~42% further increase through periodic buying. This quarter saw an about-turn: ~50% selling at prices between $90 and $104. The stock currently trades at $106.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): TSM is a very long-term 1.70% of the 13F portfolio position. A large block was purchased in 2012 at prices between $12.50 and $16.50. The stake was reduced by ~50% in Q2 2013 at prices between $17 and $20. The nine quarters through Q2 2016 saw the position rebuilt (70% increase) at prices between $19 and $26. Q2 2017 also saw a ~22% increase at prices between $31.50 and $37. The stock currently trades at $41.97. There was a ~17% further increase in Q1 2018 at prices between $40 and $45, and that was followed with minor increases in the following three quarters. This quarter saw minor trimming.

HDFC Bank (HDB), Infosys Inc. (INFY), PepsiCo Inc. (PEP), and Vale SA (VALE): These small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) positions saw reductions this quarter.

The portfolio has several positions in different ETNs and ETFs - they account for around 15% of the 13F portfolio. Fisher also had large stakes in the following businesses per the latest 13G filings: Stratasys Ltd. (SSYS) - 5.2%, Atlas Air (AAWW) - 2.3%, Wright Medical Group (WMGI) - 2.4%, and Veeco Instruments (VECO) - 3%.

Below are positions sized in the 0.1% to 0.5% range in the portfolio: ABB Ltd. (ABB), ASE Technology (ASX), Ambev (ABEV), America Movil (AMX), Aspen Technology (AZPN), BASF SE ADR (OTCQX:BASFY), BP plc (BP), Baidu Inc. (BIDU), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA), Banco Bradesco (BBD), Boeing Company (BA), Chart Inds (GTLS), Chemed Corp. (CHE), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Compagnie Financiere Richemont (OTCPK:CFRUY), ConocoPhillips (COP), Credit Agricole (OTCPK:CRARY), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), East West Bancorp (EWBC), Fanuc Corp. (OTCPK:FANUF), General Electric (GE), Heico Corp. (HEI), Hess Corp. (HES), Hill-Rom Holdings (HRC), Intesa Sanpaolo Spa ADR (OTCPK:ISNPY), JD.com (JD), Lincoln Electric (LE), Littelfuse Inc. (LFUS), Mastercard Inc. (MA), Mitsubishi Electric (OTC:MELY), Murata Mfg (OTCPK:MRAAY), Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY), Netflix (NFLX), NetEase Inc. (NTES), Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Raymond James Financial (RJF), SMC Corp. Japan (OTCPK:SMCAY), SVB Financial (SIVB), Schneider Electric (OTCPK:SBGSY), Scotts Miracle Gro (SMG), Societe Generale France (OTCPK:SCGLY), Southern Copper (SCCO), Stifel Financial Corp. (SF), Teledyne (TDY), Tokyo Electronics (OTCPK:TOELY), Toro Co. (TTC), Verint Systems (VRNT), Vinci SA (OTCPK:VCISY), Vishay Intertechnology (VSH), Weibo Corp. (WB), West Pharmaceutical (WST), Yelp Inc. (YELP), Credicorp Ltd. (BAP), Steris plc (STE), and Wright Medical Group.

The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Fisher’s 13F stock holdings (only positions that are over 0.5% of the 13F portfolio each are individually listed) in Q1 2019:

Kenneth Fisher - Fisher Asset Management - Q1 2019 13F Report Q/Q Comparison

Disclosure: I am/we are long AZN, BABA, BP, GE, GSK, INTC, JD, SFTBY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.