Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
Risk appetite lingered on in April as investors embraced the improved tone in global economic conditions, an impressive string of corporate earnings results, and the dovish pivot from major central banks.
In fixed income markets, government bond yields shifted higher across the curve and yield curves bear-steepened.
Oil prices jumped to a six-month high after America's vow for tougher restrictions on Iranian exports threatened to squeeze the supply backdrop, while OPEC and its allies reiterated their pledge to reduce crude inventories and keep a lid on output even after calls from President Trump to lower prices.
Our current scenarios are for a synchronized probability (40%), which is a continuation of the current environment that benefits equities, moderate growth (25%), which would be negative for equities and positive for bonds, political instability (20%) which would be detrimental for both bonds and equities, and stagflation (15%) that would introduce significant financial market volatility.