100 Broker Favorite Dividend Dogs Of May

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Includes: ARLP, AWCMY, BKS, CCR, CHMI, CNXM, CPTA, CTL, GNL, OFS, PBFX, PNNT, SNP, USDP
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

YCharts tracks broker target rankings for all broker-covered dividend stocks. Dividend payers posting >3.5% target upsides made this list of 100 as of 5/15/19.

Top ten broker price target upsides as of 5/15/19 ranged 34.93-180.37% from ADES, CINR, BGSF, EPM, AWCMY, TGLS, TEF, CATO, TAXA, and top dog NHTC.

Broker target-estimated top ten dividend annual yields from GNL, PNNT, OFS, CPTA, CHMI, BKS, ARLP, CCR, USDP, and AWCMY, ranged 10.92-17.33%.

Top 10 broker-favored net gains ranged 27.42-43.59% from PBFX; CCR; CTL; OFS; CPTA; GNL; CNXM; SNP; ARLP; and BKS.

Analyst one-year targets alleged ten highest yield favorite stocks could accumulate 10.18% LESS gain from $5k invested in the lowest priced five than from $5K invested in all ten. Big, high-priced stocks continued to lead the broker-favorites.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Forecast 27.42% To 43.59% Net Gains From Their May Favorite Top Ten Dividend Dogs

Six of ten top yield broker favorite dividend stocks were identified as being among the top ten net-gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). So, our dogcatcher yield-based forecast for broker favorite dividend dogs was graded by Wall St. brokers as 60% accurate.

Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1,000 invested in each of the high-yield stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst-estimated median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2019-20 data points. Note: one-year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to May 15, 2020, were:

Source: YCharts

Barnes & Noble Inc. (BKS) netted $435.90 based on the median of target price estimates from two analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 37% less than the market as a whole.

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) was projected to net $412.26, based on the median of target estimates from four analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 3% under the market as a whole.

China Petroleum & Chemical (SNP) was projected to net $339.51 based on dividends, plus a median of target estimates from four analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 55% more than the market as a whole.

CNX Midstream Partners LP (CNXM) was projected to net $331.98, based on dividends, plus a median of target price estimate from nine analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 28% more than the market as a whole.

Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL) was projected to net $319.34, based on target price estimates from three analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 30% less than the market as a whole.

Capitala Finance Corp. (CPTA) was projected to net $291.65, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from six analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 15% more than the market as a whole.

OFS Capital Corp. (OFS) was projected to net $290.62 based on the median of target price estimates from three analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 29% less than the market as a whole.

CenturyLink Inc. (CTL) was projected to net $285.91 based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from sixteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 26% less than the market as a whole.

CONSOL Coal Resources LP (CCR) was expected to net $283.17, based on the median of target price estimates from four analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 4% less than the market as a whole.

PBF Logistics LP (PBFX) was projected to net $274.21 based on dividends, plus a median of target price estimates from six analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risks 19% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 32.65% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average risks 5% less than the market as a whole.

Source: pinterest.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

50 Broker Favorite Dogs By Price Target Upsides

Source: YCharts

This scale of broker estimated upside (or downside) for stock prices provides a scale of market popularity. Note: zero broker coverage or single broker coverage produced a zero score on the above scale. The broker upside score can be taken as an emotional component as opposed to the strictly monetary and objective dividend/price yield-driven report below.

50 Broker Favorite Dogs By Yield

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top Broker Favorite Stocks Ranked By Yield

Top ten broker favorite dividend stocks selected 5/15/19 by yield represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors. Top yielding stock, Alumina Ltd. (OTCQB:AWCMY) [1] was the first of three basic materials representatives. The others slotted in the third and fourth places, CONSOL Coal Resources LP (CCR) [3], and Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP) [4].

In second place was the lone industrials representative, USD Partners LP (USDP) [2]. Then, one consumer cyclicals representative placed fifth, Barnes & Noble Inc. (BKS) [5].

Top of two real estate firms placed sixth in the top ten, Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp. (CHMI) [6]. The other real estate firm placed tenth, Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL) [10].

Three financial services placed seventh through ninth by yield, Capitala Finance Corp. (CPTA) [7], OFS Capital Corp. (OFS) [8], and PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT) [9], to complete the Broker Favorite top yield ten for May.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top Ten Broker Favorite Dogs Showed 18.37% To 34.10% Upsides To May 2020 With (31) Five Zeros At The Bottom

Source: YCharts

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became yet another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Predicted A 10.18% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Broker Favorites Of 10 Top Stocks To May 2020

Ten top Broker Favorite dividend dogs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, top ten broker favorite dividend stocks represented five of the eleven Morningstar sectors.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected 5 Lowest-Priced of the Ten Highest-Yield Broker Favorite Stocks (32) To Fetch 24.91% Vs. (33) 27.74% Net Gains from All Ten by May 2020

Source: YCharts

$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten broker favorite dividend kennel by yield were predicted to produce 10.18% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The very lowest priced broker favorite top yield stock, Barnes & Noble Inc., was projected to deliver the best net gain of 43.59%.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-price broker favorite top ten dividend stocks May 15 were: Barnes & Noble Inc.; Alumina Ltd (OTCQB:AWCMY); PennantPark Investment Corp. (PNNT); Capitala Finance Corp. (NASDAQ:CPTA); USD Partners LP (USDP), with prices ranging from $5.22 to $10.78.

Five higher-priced broker favorite dividend stocks for May 15 were: OFS Capital Corp. (OFS); CONSOL Coal Resources LP (CCR); Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp. (CHMI); Alliance Resource Partners LP (ARLP); Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL), whose prices ranged from $12.33 to $19.51.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your NASDAQ dividend dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from IndexArb; YCharts; Yahoo Finance; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. Dog photo: pinterest.com.

Disclosure: I am/we are long ADES, BGSF. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.