Welcome to the May 2019 edition of Electric Vehicle (EV) company news. May saw a slight slowdown in the growth rate for April sales, but still a solid result reaching 2.1% global market share. It was a "massive May month" for electric vehicle news - including some electric vertical take-off & landing (eVTOL) vehicles and the Lilium all-electric five-seat plane taking its maiden flight. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Volkswagen (VLKAY) voiced concerns regarding future supply of batteries and EV metals.
Global electric car sales as of end April 2019
Of note: 71% of all global electric car sales in April were 100% battery electric vehicles (BEVs), the balance being hybrids.
China electric car sales were around 100,000 in April 2019, up 34% on April 2018. Electric-car market share in China for April was 6.2%. Year to date market share is at 5.4%.
Current subsidies in China were reduced by 20% in 2017 and have been reduced in 2019 (takes effect June 25), and are to be reduced 100% by 2021. China's Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credit system was announced on September 28, 2017, and has now begun in 2019 with 10% of credits (12% in 2020) required from new energy vehicles (NEVs). That translates to around 4-5% of EV sales as market share for 2019. We are also expecting an announcement at some stage as to when China will ban ICE vehicles. BYD Chairman Wang thinks it will be by 2030. Others think it will be 2035.
Europe electric car sales were 37,000 in April 2019, 30% higher than in April 2018. Europe electric car market share was 2.8% in April, and 3.0% YTD. Norway still leads the world with an incredible 58% market share. In Norway the Model 3 is a long way ahead on the sales ladder, indicating that the most popular cars of the future will be lower-priced 100% electric cars.
US electric car sales were not available on EV Sales for April 2019. We do know that Model 3 had 17,463 sales globally.
Note: The above sales include light commercial vehicles.
Global electric car sales by manufacturer for April 2019
The Bloomberg NEF 2019 Electric Vehicle Outlook is an excellent read. A few sample quotes below:
We expect annual passenger EV sales to rise to 10 million in 2025, 28 million in 2030 and 56 million by 2040... By 2040, we expect 57% of all passenger vehicle sales, and over 30% of the global passenger vehicle fleet, will be electric.
Bloomberg's latest forecast annual electric vehicle sales - 10m by 2025, 28m by 2030, and 56m by 2040
Source: Bloomberg NEF 2019 Electric Vehicle Outlook
Bloomberg New Energy Finance - Total EV fleet forecast to 2040
Source: Bloomberg NEF 2019 Electric Vehicle Outlook
Source: Bloomberg NEF 2019 Electric Vehicle Outlook
EV market news for May 2019
On April 29 Bloomberg reported:
U.S. has battery problem in race for EV supremacy. Boosting local production of the raw minerals would be the first step toward building out a rechargeable battery industry that’s so far been concentrated in Asia. The U.S. controls only about 13 percent of the global lithium cell production capacity, with no growth expected, according to BloombergNEF. China now controls about two-thirds of that industry and BNEF is forecasting it could grow to about 73 percent by 2021.
The US produces only 1.2% of the world's lithium
On May 3 Reuters reported:
Exclusive: Tesla expects global shortage of electric vehicle battery minerals - sources. Tesla Inc expects global shortages of nickel, copper and other electric-vehicle battery minerals down the road due to under-investment in the mining sector, the company’s global supply manager for battery metals told an industry conference on Thursday, according to two sources. Sarah Maryssael, Tesla’s global supply manager for battery metals, told a closed-door Washington conference of miners, regulators and lawmakers that the automaker sees a shortage of key EV minerals coming, according to the sources.
On May 3 The Guardian reported:
Amsterdam to ban petrol and diesel cars and motorbikes by 2030. From next year, diesel cars that are 15 years or older will be banned from going within the A10 ring road around the Dutch capital. Public buses and coaches that emit exhaust fumes will no longer enter the city centre from 2022. By 2025, the ban will be extended to pleasure crafts on its waters, mopeds and light mopeds.
On May 6 Clean Technica reported:
Electric aircraft will help save the world. After revolutionizing ride sharing/taxi service, Uber is taking to the skies with its Uber Elevate program. The field is now split between conventional electric airplanes (e-planes) and eVTOL (vertical take-off & landing) aircraft. Both will answer different needs, and there will be hybrid approaches — like VTOL aircraft with wings that are sometimes extendable......a few players are already aiming high with 9 to 100 seat electric and hybrid designs. From Eviation’s electric 9-seater, Alice, to the Zunum’s 100-seat hybrid electric plane, electric airplanes are taking off. Pushing the entry-level class is Pipistrel, with its Alpha Electro. There are also Dufour Aero, Airbus, and Boeing buying up projects. Electric motors are easier for maintenance, operation, and updates. They offer a clear long-term advantage over their more expensive gasoline alternative. Airports are also expressing interests. Norway said it is committing to all electric domestic flights by 2040. More recently, Harbour Air announced it will run an all-electric aircraft fleet.......Electric aircraft will need a battery that can store at least 250 Wh/k and can handle 600 nautical miles.
An airbus electric vertical take-off & landing (eVTOL)
On May 13 Electrive reported:
Germany: Shell to set-up 50 HPC stations this year. Shell is starting to build high power chargers at its gas stations in Germany. This year, the oil company plans to build 50 charging stations across the country, with a total of 100 charging points and a capacity of at least 150 kilowatts. Further charging stations are to follow.
Note: In a similar theme, Forbes reported on May 25: "The turning electric tide: Chevron announces that some California gas stations will get EV chargers."
On May 13 Car Keys reported: "Aston Martin’s first EV makes dynamic debut at Monaco ePrix."
Aston Martin's all-electric Rapide E
On May 14 Reuters reported:
U.S. Senate moves forward on plan to develop electric vehicle supply chain. U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday moved closer to developing a national electric vehicle supply chain policy, with senators voicing bipartisan support for legislation designed to parry China’s dominance in metals production and battery manufacturing. The pending legislation would require a tally of metal reserves in the United States and seek to streamline permitting for the EV sector, an area where China already leads by a wide margin.
On May 15 CNBC reported:
Five-seater, all-electric and jet-powered air taxi makes maiden flight. A German start-up has unveiled a five-seater, all-electric air taxi prototype. In an announcement Thursday, Munich-based Lilium said that its jet-powered air taxi had completed its maiden flight earlier this month. The full-scale prototype, which can take-off and land vertically, is powered by 36 all-electric jet engines and can travel up to 300 kilometers in one hour, according to the company.
Lilium all-electric 5 seat plane
On May 21 CNBC reported:
At all-hands meeting Jeff Bezos tells employees he’s ‘very excited’ about the auto industry... Amazon led the $700 million investment in electric vehicle start-up Rivian in February.
On May 31 Automotive News China reported:
China's EV plants expected to run at 80% of capacity in 2019-20. Annual capacity of electrified vehicles in China will hit 2 million in 2019 while annual sales of such vehicles will range between 1.6 million and 1.7 million, the industry group predicted this week.
EV company news
On May 10 China Daily reported:
BYD NEV sales up 123% in Jan-April period. In a filing to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Friday, BYD said it sold 97,183 NEVs in the January-April period, compared to 43,555 units a year earlier. The strong growth was primarily fueled by the sales surge in the pure electric passenger vehicles, soaring 461.5 percent to 61,603 units. In late April, BYD said it was expecting a net profit of 1.45 billion yuan ($213 million) to 1.65 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an annual increase of 202.7 to 244.4 percent, on projected strong NEV sales in the second quarter. Despite sluggish sales for gasoline-powered vehicles, the NEV market has experienced a boom in China. During the first quarter, China's NEV production and sales amounted to 304,000 units and 299,000 units respectively, up 102.7 percent and 109.7 percent.
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Tesla is currently ranked No. 2 globally with 13% global market share. Tesla is the No. 1 electric car seller in the US, with 49% (not updated for April yet) market share. Interestingly in April Tesla Model 3 had 17,464 sales almost triple its second-place rival BYD Yuan at 6,428 sales.
On April 27 Clean Technica reported: "Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory on track to produce cars as early as September." You can view a more recent video here that shows the factory is progressing very fast.
Tesla's China factory under construction as of April 2019
On May 2 Green Car Reports reported:
Tesla Model 3 becomes eligible for Canada's EV tax credit with 93-mile version. Tesla announced a new entry-level version of the Tesla Model 3 for Canada on Wednesday. The new version is designed to limbo under the $45,000 [Canadian] price cap on Canada's new $5,000 [Canadian] electric-vehicle tax credit, which was itself designed to exclude wealthy Tesla buyers from receiving government rebates for buying their new cars. The new model, with 93 miles of range, lists for CA$44,999, plus a CA$1,300 delivery charge and CA$10 federal registration fee.
On May 8 Green Car Reports reported:
Report says Fiat Chrysler emissions deal worth $2 billion to Tesla. Analysts should no longer be worried about whether Tesla has enough cash to meet its immediate needs. In addition to $2 billion it raised in stocks and convertible bonds last week, the company signed a deal with Fiat Chrysler last month to share its emissions credits in Europe with the Italian-American automaker, which is lagging in electric cars.
On May 14 Green Car Reports reported:
Tesla Model Y production will strain battery supplies: Panasonic. Tesla's main battery supplier, Panasonic, says the two companies won't have enough battery-building capacity to support production of the Model Y.
Beijing Automotive Group Co. (BAIC) (OTC:BCCMY, HK:1958), Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. [SAIC] (CH:600104) (SAIC includes Roewe, MG, Baojun, Maxus)
On May 11 Reuters reported:
China's BAIC seeks to buy 5% Daimler stake, report says. China’s BAIC Group is seeking to buy a stake of up to 5 percent in Daimler as a way to secure its investment in Chinese Mercedes-Benz manufacturing company Beijing Benz Automotive, three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.
On May 3 The Driven reported:
BMW i4 electric car, with 600km range, revealed in leaked images. New images have come to light showing the interior of the all-electric 600km range BMWi4, which is planned for production by the German carmaker in 2021.
On May 29 The Driven reported:
New Nissan Leaf electric car gets five stars in Australian safety. “The rating for the Nissan Leaf provides consumers and fleet buyers with another safe electric vehicle option.”
Geely is currently ranked the No. 7 in the global electric car manufacturer's sales ranking with 4% global market share.
On May 3 Green Car Reports reported:
Polestar will qualify for $7,500 electric-car credit separately from Volvo. The 2021 Polestar 2 will look and feel a lot like a Volvo, but federal and state regulators won't treat it like one in the U.S. when it comes to qualifying for various green-car incentives.
On May 12 Bloomberg reported: "Lotus to hire 200 engineers for U.K. expansion, Telegraph says."
On May 15 Electrek reported:
Volvo... now says that it has secured "multi-billion dollar battery supply deals" with CATL and LG Chem. According to a press release issued earlier today, Volvo Car Group signed contracts with CATL, China’s biggest battery maker, LG Chem, the Korea-based battery cell manufacturer, to buy several billion dollar worth of battery cell and modules for "all models on the upcoming SPA2 and the existing CMA modular vehicle platforms."
Volkswagen is currently ranked the No. 8 top-selling global electric car manufacturer with 4% market share.
An 1:11 minute video released April 8 that is very worthwhile viewing:
On May 8 The Verge reported:
VW opens preorders for the ID.3, its first long-range electric car. Coming in 2020 with between 200 and 340 miles of range, and starting at around $33,000... Dubbed the ID.3, VW will sell three versions of the all-electric hatchback. The cheapest will start at “under €30,000” (about $33,600) and will travel 330 kilometers (about 200 miles) on a single charge using a 45kWh battery. The car will also be sold in 58kWh and 77kWh configurations, which will get 420 km (261 miles) and 550 km (342 miles), respectively... Deliveries start in Europe in mid-2020.
On May 10 CNBC reported:
VW's new electric car passes 10,000 orders in just 24 hours. VW said the entry-level car will cost around 30,000 euros ($33,600).
On May 15 Green Car Reports reported:
Volkswagen plans $1.1 billion battery partnership in Germany. Volkswagen announced plans on Tuesday to build a large new battery factory—with an unspecified partner or partners—in its home state of Lower Saxony in Germany. Volkswagen has announced plans to build 22 million new electric cars by 2029, and has announced battery contracts for up to 50 million electric cars, without specifying a date.
On May 23 Morningstar reported:
Audi raises EV sales targets. Audi said it now expects 40% of global unit sales to come from electric and hybrid vehicles by 2025.
On May 28 Green Car Reports reported:
$50 billion VW battery plan could need revamp after Samsung cuts back. Volkswagen, with its plan to build 22 million new electric cars across 70 models by 2030, is ground-zero for concerns over battery supplies. As more automakers get serious about building lots of electric cars, there are indications that supplies of batteries to power all those cars aren't ramping.
Note: On April 30 I wrote in Trend Investing: "Battery Shortages Are Already A Problem, And Electric Car Waiting Lists Are Becoming The Norm."
On May 6 Green Car Reports reported:
2020 Hyundai Ioniq Electric gets more range and power, faster charging—in Europe. The 2020 Hyundai Ioniq Electric will get a big boost in range along with more power when it goes on sale later this year in Europe.
2020 Hyundai Ioniq Electric (European spec)
On May 14 Top Gear reported:
Hyundai and Rimac are teaming up to build fast EVs. Hyundai, Kia and Rimac will collaborate on two high performance EVs by 2020. The aim? The formation of a “technical partnership” that will see the companies “collaborate on two high-performance electric vehicles by 2020”.
General Motors/Chevrolet (NYSE:GM)
GM/Chevrolet is the No. 2 ranked electric car seller in the US with ~11% (not updated) market share.
On April 30 Green Car Reports reported:
GM CEO confirms plans to build Chevy or GMC electric pickup truck. The automaker will build an electric pickup.
On May 28 Green Car Reports reported:
GM plans its own nationwide charging network with Bechtel. General Motors, the nation's biggest automaker, is teaming up with construction giant Bechtel to build thousands of chargers around the U.S. with the aim of promoting adoption of electric cars. The companies will form a joint venture to build the chargers in which Bechtel will provide its expertise.
On May 8 Green Car Reports reported:
First Mercedes-Benz EQC rolls off assembly line in Germany. Now Mercedes-Benz has announced that it produced its first new electric EQC SUV on Monday at its factory in Bremen, Germany. The car will go on sale in Europe, but is not expected to come to the U.S. until next year.
2020 Mercedes-Benz EQC Edition 1886
On May 13 Forbes reported:
Mercedes-Benz will make entire car fleet carbon-neutral by 2039. It also sets a target of making electric vehicles make up at least 50% of its sales by 2030.
On May 21 Cnet reported:
Ford's EV Mustang crossover concept may debut this year, report says. Ford's long-teased Mustang-inspired performance electric crossover is rumored to hit production in 2020.
Nio Inc. (formerly NextEV) (NIO)
On May 24 Automotive News China reported:
Nio, GAC unveil joint EV brand. Electric vehicle startup Nio and state-owned automaker Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. have launched a brand and a concept SUV as part of their joint effort to explore China’s EV market. The production version of the SUV will be built at GAC’s electric vehicle plant in the south China city of Guangzhou. The production model will be unveiled this year and go on sale in China in the first half of 2020. The electric SUV will have a range of more than 600 kilometers (373 miles) on a full charge.
Hycan concept SUV
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.
On May 21 Bloomberg reported:
China's GAC Motor postpones U.S. entry on trade frictions. GAC Motor, as the company is known, had a goal to sell cars in America in early 2020 but is now postponing that target as tariffs threaten to make the importing of cars from China more expensive.
Source: Automotive News China
Faraday Future (private)
On April 30 Green Car Reports reported:
Faraday Future revealed: Company gets funding to produce FF91. On-again, off-again electric-car startup Faraday may have a future after all. The company announced two new rounds of financing Monday, a $1.25 billion stock sale expected to be completed by the end of the year, and a $225 million bridge loan to make it to the end of the year. In a statement, Faraday Future said the money will pay for the production of the long-awaited FF91, and pay for continued on its second model, the FF81, for launch in 2021.
On May 13 Green Car Reports reported:
Dyson patents show possible Tesla Model X competitor. Dyson, the maker of snazzy, high-tech vacuum cleaners, has said for two years that it will build electric cars starting in 2020. Now the company has released patent drawings that give a hint of what at least the first one may look like.
Other EV companies
Other EV companies I am following include Atlis Motors, Byton (private), Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (private), Didi Chuxing, Electrameccanica Vehicles Corp. (SOLO), Fiat Chrysler (NYSE:FCAU), Fisker (private), Great Wall Motors, GreenPower Motor Company Inc. [TSXV:GPV] (OTCQX:GPVRF), Honda (HMC, OTCPK:HNDAF), Lamborghini, Lucid Motors (formerly Atieva) (private), Mahindra & Mahindra (OTC:MAHDY), Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY), Peugeot [PA:PEUP] (OTCPK:PEUGF), Qiantu Motor, Rivian Automotive (private), Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY), Suzuki Motor Corp. [TYO: 7269] (OTCPK:SZKMY) (OTCPK:SZKMF), Tata Motors (TTM) group (Jaguar, Land Rover), Toyota (NYSE:TM), WM Motor, Xiaopeng Motors, and Zhi Dou (private).
The list of countries and cities banning (or planning to ban) petrol and diesel vehicles include at least - Norway (2025), Netherlands (2030), China (?2030/35), Germany (?2030), Ireland (2030), Israel (2030), Scotland (2032), UK (2040), France (2040), Taiwan (2040), Japan (2050); Rome (2024), Athens (2025), Paris (2025), London, Stuttgart, Mexico City (2025), Madrid (2025), and Amsterdam and Brussels (2030). Added to this are countries pushing hard to become 100% EV - Norway and India (30% by 2030).
Autonomous Driving/Connectivity/Onboard entertainment/Ride sharing
On May 2 CNBC reported: "Elon Musk to investors: Self-driving will make Tesla a $500 billion company. Its current market cap stands around $42 billion."
On May 29 Cnet reported: "Waymo's back to testing self-driving semis in Arizona."
A Waymo self-driving semi truck
On May 30 Automotive News reported: "Uber loses $1B in Q1 as revenue rises 20%."
April 2019 global electric car sales were up 29% YoY. Electric car market share for April reached 6.2% in China, and 2.8% in Europe; no figures are available for the U.S. in April.
Highlights for the "massive month of May" news were:
- Bloomberg's latest forecasts: "We expect annual passenger EV sales to rise to 10 million in 2025, 28 million in 2030 and 56 million by 2040... By 2040, we expect 57% of all passenger vehicle sales... will be electric."
- Bloomberg: "U.S. has battery problem in race for EV supremacy. Boosting local production of the raw minerals would be the first step toward building out a rechargeable battery industry that’s so far been concentrated in Asia."
- Tesla expects global shortage of electric vehicle battery minerals - sources. Report says Fiat Chrysler emissions deal worth $2 billion to Tesla.
- Amsterdam to ban petrol and diesel cars and motorbikes by 2030.
- Both Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) are opening EV charging stations in existing gas stations.
- Gemany's Lilium five-seater, all-electric, jet-powered air taxi makes maiden flight.
- Aston Martin’s first EV makes dynamic debut at Monaco ePrix.
- Bezos excited about EVs: Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) led the $700 million investment in electric vehicle start-up Rivian in February.
- Volkswagen's first long-range electric car coming in mid 2020 starting at “under €30,000” (about $33,600).
- BYD new energy vehicle (NEV) sales up 123% in the January-April period.
- Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory on track to produce cars as early as September.
- China's BAIC seeks to buy 5% Daimler stake.
- BMW's i4 electric car to have a 600-kilometer range.
- Volvo secures "multi-billion dollar battery supply deals" to support its electric car plans with CATL and LG Chem.
- "Volkswagen's new electric car passes 10,000 orders in just 24 hours." "$50 billion VW battery plan could need revamp after Samsung cuts back... indications that supplies of batteries to power all those cars aren't ramping." "Volkswagen plans $1.1 billion battery partnership in Germany."
- GM to build an electric pickup truck. GM plans its own nationwide charging network with Bechtel.
- Mercedes Benz sets a target of making electric vehicles make up at least 50% of its sales by 2030.
- Elon Musk to investors: Self-driving will make Tesla a $500 billion company.
As usual, all comments are welcome.
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