Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Forecast 30.55% To 262.04% Net Gains From June's LOUD Top 10 Dividend Dogs
Five of ten top yield crying out LOUD dividend stocks were identified as being among these top ten net gainers for the coming year based on analyst one-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). So, our dogcatcher yield-based forecast for LOUD dividend dogs was graded by Wall Street brokers as 50% accurate.
The Seeking Alpha LOUD List is based on number of quote page visits to stocks that have been at least 90 days without written coverage. Thus, targeting stocks that have active interest (LOved) but little or no write-ups (UnDocumented). Hence, these dogs cry LOUD for attention.
Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1,000 invested in each of the high-yield stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst estimated median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2019-2020 data points. Note: one-year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to June 4, 2020, were:
Quad/Graphics Inc. (QUAD) was projected to net $2,620.37, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from two analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 81% more than the market as a whole.
LSC Communications Inc. (LKSD) was projected to net $1524.30, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from three analysts, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for LKSD.
SunCoke Energy Partners LP (SXCP) was expected to net $734.99, based on dividends, plus the median target price estimate from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 60% more than the market as a whole.
China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (SNP) netted $447.87, based on a median target price estimate from four analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 53% more than the market as a whole.
Enable Midstream Partners (ENBL) was projected to net $408.60, based on the median of target price estimates from eleven analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 30% more than the market as a whole.
Office Properties Income (OPI) was projected to net $383.19, based on target estimates from seven analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 62% more than the market as a whole.
CNX Midstream Partners LP (CNXM) was projected to net $349.71, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from nine analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 20% more than the market as a whole.
Black Stone Minerals LP (BSM) was projected to net $345.27, based on dividends, plus a median target estimate from six analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 33% less than the market as a whole.
FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK) was projected to net $321.14, based on dividends plus the median target price estimate from nineteen analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 12% more than the market as a whole.
SemGroup Corp. (SEMG) was projected to net $305.50, based on target price estimates from ten analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 59% more than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 74.41% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these 10 dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility of 24% more than the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where, and (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest-yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are in fact best called "underdogs".
50 Crying Out LOUD Dividend Dogs By Broker Targets
This scale of broker estimated upside (or downside) for stock prices provides a measure of market popularity. Note: No broker coverage or one broker coverage produced a zero score on the above scale. It can be taken as an emotional component as opposed to the strictly monetary and objective dividend/price yield-driven report below.
50 Crying Out LOUD Dividend Dogs By Yield
Actionable Conclusions (12-21): 10 Top Crying Out LOUD Dividend Stocks By Yield
Top 10 crying out LOUD dividend stocks selected 6/4/19 by yield represented six of eleven Morningstar sectors. Top-yielding stock, LSC Communications Inc. , was the first of two industrial services firms in the top 10. The other industrial services LOUD dog placed fourth, Quad/Graphics Inc. .
Second place went to a singular LOUD basic materials sector dog named SunCoke Energy Partners LP . Third place revealed the first of three energy issues in the top ten, SemGroup Corp. The other two energy representatives placed ninth and tenth, Sunoco LP (SUN)  and NGL Energy Partners LP (NGL) .
In fifth place was the first of three financial sector representatives, FS KKR Capital Corp . The other two financial concerns placed seventh and eighth on this top ten list, BlackRock Capital Investment Corp (BKCC) , and Capitala Finance Corp (CPTA) .
Finally, a lone real estate sector representative placed sixth, Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp (WMC) , and completed the Seeking Alpha crying out LOUD top 10 pack by yield for June.
Actionable Conclusions: (22-31) Top 10 Crying Out LOUD Dividend Dogs Showed 21.45% To 250.88% Upsides To June 2020 With (32) Four Downsiders
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became yet another tool to dig out bargains.
Analysts Predicted A 51.24% Advantage For Five Highest-Yield, Lowest-Priced Of Top 10 Crying Out LOUD Dividend Dogs To June 2020
Ten top Seeking Alpha Crying Out LOUD dividend dogs were culled by yield for this monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking.
As noted above, top 10 crying out LOUD dividend stocks represented six of the eleven Morningstar sectors.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Projected Five Lowest-Priced Of Top 10 Highest-Yield Seeking Alpha LOUD Stocks (33) To Fetch 92.81% Vs. (34) 61.37% Net Gains by All 10 by June 2020
$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top 10 crying out LOUD dividend kennel by yield were predicted to produce 51.24% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all 10. The fifth lowest priced crying out LOUD top yield stock, Quad/Graphics Inc., was projected to deliver the best net gain of 262.4% by two analysts.
The five lowest-price crying out LOUD top 10 dividend stocks June 4 were: LSC Communications, FS KKR Capital Corp, BlackRock Capital Investment Corp, Capitala Finance Corp, and Quad/Graphics, with prices ranging from $5.31 to $9.12.
Five higher-priced crying out LOUD dividend stocks for June 4 were: Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp, SunCoke Energy Partners LP, SemGroup Corp, NGL Energy Partners LP, and Sunoco LP, whose prices ranged from $9.86 to $30.91.
The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of 10 reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your crying out LOUD dividend dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
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Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com, YCharts.com, finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. Dog photo: parade.com