Kiplinger's Most Reliable Dividend Stocks On Earth June Update

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Includes: ABBV, APLE, CC, EPD, GLAD, GNL, MDP, MMP, MNR, MO, MRD, OXY, SHLX, T, VET, XOM
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

Kiplinger Today, a "daily digest of timely, trusted advice" regularly lists opportunities for investors. This World's Best list was compiled by Kiplinger in October 2018, data as of 6/5/19.

Kiplinger's most reliable dividend stocks are aka “Dividend Aristocrats.” They have raised dividends for at least five straight years (Canadian firms) 10 years (E.U.-based firms) or 25 years (U.S.companies).

These 95 select dividend stocks ranged 0.26%-11.32% in annual yield and ranged -12.58%-85.96% in annual price target upsides per brokers 6/5/19.

Top Ten Kiplinger's most reliable long-term dividend stocks boasted gains from 19.85% to 89.46%.

$5k invested in the lowest-priced five top-yield Kiplinger most reliable dividend dogs showed 1.51% more net-gain than from $5k invested in all 10. Little low-price Kiplinger reliable dividend stocks led the pack.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 19.85% To 89.46% Net Gains For 10 Top Kiplinger June Most Reliable Dividend Dogs Into 2020

Five of ten top Kiplinger most reliable dividend stocks by yield were among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, the yield-based forecast for these June dogs was graded by Wall St. Wizards as 50% accurate.

Source: YCharts.com

Projections were based on estimated dividends from $1k invested in each of the highest-yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts. Note: One-year target prices by lone analysts were not applied. 10 probable profit-generating trades projected to June 5, 2020 were:

The Chemours Co. (CC) was projected to net $894.55, based on a median of target price estimate from 13 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 148% more than the market as a whole.

Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) was projected to net $665.59, based on a median of target price estimates from 15 analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 14% more than the market as a whole.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) was projected to net $487.38, based on the median of target estimates from 30 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 14% less than the market as a whole.

Global Net Lease Inc. (GNL) netted $368.44 based on the median of estimates from three analysts, plus dividends. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk, 31% less than the market as a whole.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) was projected to net 342.19, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 13 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 13% less than the market as a whole.

Meredith Corp. (MDP) was projected to net $238.57, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from six analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 20% less than the market as a whole.

Altria Group Inc. (MO) was projected to net $237.74, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from 17 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 83% less than the market as a whole.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) was projected to net $228.44, based on dividends, plus a mean target price estimate from 23 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 5% under the market as a whole.

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) was projected to net $214.72, based on the median of target price estimates from 17 analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 10% more than the market as a whole.

Monmouth Real Estate (MNR) was projected to net $198.49 based on dividends, plus the median of target estimates form seven brokers, less transaction fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 28% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 38.85% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these 10 stocks. These gain estimates were subject to average risks 13% less than the market as a whole.

Actionable Conclusions (11-14): (Bear Alerts) Analysts Predicted One Kiplinger Most Reliable Dividend Top Yielder To Show A 3.85% Loss to June 2020

The probable losing trade revealed by YCharts for 2020 was:

Source: YCharts.com

W.P. Carey Inc. WPC) projected a loss of $31.86 based on dividend and a median of the target price estimates from nine analysts including broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% less than the market as a whole.

Source: downtowncamas.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs."

50 Kiplinger Most Reliable Dividend Stocks On Earth By June Target Gains

Source: YCharts.com

50 Kiplinger Most Reliable Dividend Stocks On Earth By June Yield

Source: YCharts.com

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): 10 Top Kiplinger Most Reliable Dividend Stocks By Yield

Top 10 Kiplinger Most Reliable Dividend stocks selected 6/5/19 by yield represented five of 11 Morningstar sectors. First place was claimed by the first of two real estate sector representatives, Global Net Lease Inc. [1]. The other real estate representative placed fifth, Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. (APLE) [5].

Five from the energy sector placed second, fourth, sixth, seventh and tenth, Vermilion Energy Inc., [2], Shell Midstream Partners LP (SHLX) [4], Occidental Petroleum Corp. [6], Magellan Midstream Partners LP (MMP) [7], and Enterprise Products Partners LP [10].

The lone financial services representative emerged in third place by yield, Gladstone Capital Corp (GLAD) [3].

The lone communications services pup claimed eighth place, AT&T Inc. (T) [8]. Finally, a lone consumer defensive representative placed ninth, Altria Group Inc. [9], to complete the Kiplinger most reliable dividend top ten by yield for June.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Top 10 Kiplinger Most Reliable Dividend Dogs Showed 13.98%-31.95 Upsides, While (31) Five Lowly Down-Siders Sank -2.06% to -7.73%

Source: YCharts.com

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median target price estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 1.51% Advantage For Five Highest Yield, Lowest Priced Kiplinger Most Reliable Dividend Stocks To June 2020

10 top Kiplinger most reliable dividend dogs were culled by yield for this update. Yield (dividend/price) results provided by YCharts did the ranking.

Source: YCharts.com

As noted above, top 10 Kiplinger most reliable dividend (MRD) dogs screened 6/5/19 showing the highest dividend yields represented five of 11 in the Morningstar sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted Five Lowest-Priced Of The Top 10 Highest-Yield Kiplinger MRD Dogs (32) Delivering 26.85% Vs. (33) 26.45% Net Gains by All 10 Come June 2020

Source: YCharts.com

$5k invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top 10 Dividend Kiplinger most reliable dividend kennel by yield were predicted by analyst one-year targets to deliver 1.51% more gain than $5k invested as $.5k in all 10. The eighth lowest priced selection, Occidental Petroleum Corp., was projected to deliver the best net gain of 48.74%.

Source: YCharts.com

The five lowest-priced top-yield Kiplinger most reliable dividend dogs as of June 5 were: Gladstone Capital Corp., Apple Hospitality REIT Inc., Global Net Lease Inc., Shell Midstream Partners LP, Vermilion Energy Inc., with prices ranging from $9.18 to $20.91.

Five higher-priced Kiplinger most reliable dividend dogs as of June 5 were: Enterprise Products Partners LP, AT&T Inc., Occidental Petroleum Corp., Altria Group Inc., Magellan Midstream Partners LP, whose prices ranged from $28.10 to $62.36.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of 10 reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your S&P500 stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com, YCharts.com, finance.yahoo.com, analyst mean target price by YCharts. Dog photo: downtowncamas.com

Disclosure: I am/we are long T, TJX. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.