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Oil Shock Model Scenarios


  • The future is unknown, so future extraction rates from conventional (excludes tight oil and extra heavy oil) oil-producing reserves are unknown.
  • Jean Laherrere, for many years, used a 500 Gb estimate for extra-heavy oil URR. This was recently revised to 215 Gb.
  • My best guess for future World oil output in the absence of a major economic crisis in response to peak oil has extraction rates gradually rising from 2025 to 2045, remaining flat until 2050 and then decreasing at a gradually increasing rate.

By Dennis Coyne

Many different oil shock model scenarios have been presented over time at Peak Oil Barrel. Information on the Oil Shock Model, originally developed by Paul Pukite can be found in Mathematical Geoenergy. The future is unknown, so future extraction rates from conventional (excludes tight oil and extra heavy oil) oil-producing reserves are unknown. Also not known are future oil prices, which will affect the amount of tight oil and extra heavy oil that is ultimately produced.

For tight oil, I have created three scenarios corresponding to a low, medium, and high oil price scenario. Likewise, I have created three scenarios for extra heavy oil which correspond to the same low to high price scenarios used for the tight oil scenarios.

The mean estimates by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for technically recoverable resources in tight oil plays, combined with reasonable economic assumptions and data gathered from shaleprofile.com are used to model tight oil output. The EIA's AEO 2018 reference oil price scenario is used for the high oil price case, and the low scenario uses the AEO reference price case up to the date when it reaches $70/b in 2017 and assumes oil prices remain at $70/b for all future dates. The medium oil price scenario is the average of the low and high price cases.

The high tight oil scenario is lto1 and corresponds to the high oil price scenario. Likewise, lto2 and lto3 are the medium and low tight oil scenarios, respectively, and correspond to the medium and low oil price scenarios.

For oil sands, I use an oil shock model with 500 Gb of resources discovered initially, and it is assumed that development of the resource is very slow with an average time from discovery to a barrel becoming part of producing reserves set at

This article was written by

Ron Patterson is a retired Computer Engineer. He spent five years in Saudi Arabia working for Saudi ARAMCO. He has followed the peak oil story since 2000. Ron started blogging on peak oil in 2013. His web site, PeakOilBarrel.com is one of the most followed blogs on the subject. Ron's interest are geology, biology, paleontology, and ecology. His hobbies are blogging and kayak sailing. Ron is now retired and turned over the administration of the site to Dennis Coyne. Ron is still an active participant on the site and guests now provide timely posts.

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