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Merk Research: U.S. Business Cycle Report June 2019


This is an extremely challenging economic environment to analyze. The various indicators paint a very mixed picture.

The probability of a recession starting in the coming six months is as high as it's been in the past few years.

Nevertheless, my base-case view - meaning on balance more likely than not - remains that the U.S. economic expansion will likely continue over the next several months, and in generaluntilfurthernotice.

Of greatestconcern is the inversion of the 10yr-3m yield curve.

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