Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
This is an extremely challenging economic environment to analyze. The various indicators paint a very mixed picture.
The probability of a recession starting in the coming six months is as high as it's been in the past few years.
Nevertheless, my base-case view - meaning on balance more likely than not - remains that the U.S. economic expansion will likely continue over the next several months, and in generaluntilfurthernotice.
Of greatestconcern is the inversion of the 10yr-3m yield curve.