Harsco Corp (NYSE:HSC) is a diversified, multinational provider of industrial services and engineered products. The company's operations consist of two reportable segments: Harsco Metals & Minerals and Harsco Rail. The company has locations in 30 countries, including the United States.
|Insider/Institutional||1.0% / 88.3%||ROE LTM|| |
|Public Float||79.3 million||Book Value/Share|| |
|Market Capitalization||$2,004 million||Daily Volume (3 mo. Avg.)||384,349 million|
|FYE DEC||FY 2018A||FY 2019E||FY 2020E|
|FYE DEC||FY 2018A||FY 2019E||FY 2020E|
|Revenue ($ mil.)||ACTUAL||CURRENT||PREVIOUS||CURRENT||PREVIOUS|
Management remains confident about the prospects of each business segment in 2019. We assume no contribution from the Industrial business from Q2:19 onwards given management’s intention to monetize the segment soon. Instead, we factor in the Clean Earth acquisition from Q2:19 onwards. The company made significant investments in the M&M segment in FY18, including the acquisition of the Altek Group. M&M signed 28 renewals and 12 new contracts during 2018. In 2019, we expect a healthy lift in revenues (mid to high single digits) due to the investments and new contracts that will commence in the first half of the year. For the Rail segment, management expects revenues to increase ~30-35% YOY.
For 2019, management anticipates operating margins to increase across its business segments. For the M&M segment, management expects adjusted operating income to increase by a high single-digit percentage. For the Rail segment, management of HSC expects operating income to grow in line with revenue growth. For the Industrial segment, operating income is anticipated to increase ~20-25%.
For 2019 and 2020, we forecast revenue growth of 6.6% and 3.6%, resulting in $1,836.4 and $1,902.2 million of revenue, respectively. We note that the two Industrial businesses (IKG and PK) contributed ~$169 million in sales in FY18. Adjusted operating margin for 2019 is expected to increase 70 bps to 11.5% from 10.8% in 2018.
Income from continuing operations is forecasted to increase from $109.7 million in 2018 to $118.9 and $131.7 million in 2019 and 2020, respectively. This growth in income from continuing operations results in Earnings per Share in 2018 of $1.31 and forecasted EPS of $1.46 and $1.61 in 2019 and 2020, respectively.
We value HSC using a combination of multiples based on industry peer companies (P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples), blended with our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) valuation to derive a fair value target price for the company.
HSC’s Industrial business is valued using a broad group of capital goods/industrial machinery peers. For the Rail segment, we use Wabtec Corp (NYSE: WAB) as the potential comparable company. We have also factored in contribution from the potential sale of the two Industrial businesses (IKG and PK). We have valued these businesses at ~$150 million at ~7.5x 2019 EBITDA (combined EBITDA of ~$20 million). The multiple is at a discount to the recent sale of Air-X at 12x given that IKG and PK have much lower margins.
Overall, we are valuing HSC using a 15% discount to the industry average P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples. Since HSC is a multi-year growth story based on aggressive expansion plans, we are applying these discounted multiples to our 2020 forecasted results. We then average the two price targets from the discounted 2020 P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples. Then, we discount that average target back to the present at our computed cost of capital. We weight this discounted multiple target to equal 50% of our price target. The average of these two multiple based targets is $34.02, which discounts back to the present value of $31.73.
We weight the other 50% of our target using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model price. Our DCF model uses our forecasted free cash flow to the firm over the next one year and then grows EBIT at a 6% rate over years 2-8. We apply a weighted average cost of capital of 7.21% which is a combination of a 8.06% cost of equity and a 6.0% pre-tax cost of debt. Thus, our DCF produces a value of $32.61.
The combination of $31.73 at 50% and $32.61 at 50% results in a weighted average price target of $32.17 which we round up to $32.25.
The exhibit below summarizes our peer group multiples, while the DCF is included at the end of this report.
The Exhibit below shows stock price targets using various combinations of forward EPS and P/E multiples. Our EPS estimates for 2019 and 2020 are $1.46 and $1.61. The portion of the chart not shaded shows resulting stock price targets at various forward P/E multiples that are above the current price of $25.00 on May 31, 2019.
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Disclosure: I am/we are long HSC. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.