By Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy
When looking at the money and bond markets these days, they almost seem to be saying to the Federal Reserve (Fed), "Would you please cut rates already?" Even though the economic data doesn't warrant an urgent rate cut, the policymakers have put themselves in a very difficult situation by having to make a move. In other words, the bond market is the tail wagging the Fed dog. Against this backdrop, I continue to advocate a solution for fixed-income investors in which no heavy lifting is required: the barbell strategy.
As the reader may recall, we began writing about this approach last summer. We utilize Yield Enhanced (AEY) and U.S. Treasury floating rate (UST FRN) strategies and comparing the results to the widely followed Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index (Agg) benchmark. At first, the combination centered around a 70% AEY and 30% UST FRN blend, but during 2019, this ratio has continued to be adjusted due to the decline in intermediate yields and the resulting flattening of the yield curve.
Yield to Worst and Effective Duration Comparison Enhanced Yield/UST FRN vs. Aggregate
The accompanying graph now illustrates the combination of either 50% AEY/50% UST FRN or 40% AEY/60% UST FRN as the newest pairings. Here are the respective results compared to the Agg:
50% AEY/50% UST FRN: +9 basis points (bps) in yield; -2.34 years in duration
40% AEY/60% UST FRN: +3 bps in yield; -3.01 years in duration
The WisdomTree Yield Enhanced U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGGY), which seeks to track the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Enhanced Yield Index, and the WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury ETF (USFR), which seeks to track the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Floating Rate Bond Index, can be utilized as the two ends of the barbell. The strategy laid out in this blog post offers a strategic solution designed to help fixed-income investors navigate the waters that loom ahead without making a high-conviction bet on where rates are headed in the seemingly ever-changing interest rate landscape.
Unless otherwise stated, data source is Bloomberg, as of June 27, 2019.
Kevin Flanagan, Head of Fixed Income Strategy
As part of WisdomTree’s Investment Strategy group, Kevin serves as Head of Fixed Income Strategy. In this role, he contributes to the asset allocation team, writes fixed income-related content and travels with the sales team, conducting client-facing meetings and providing expertise on WisdomTree’s existing and future bond ETFs. In addition, Kevin works closely with the fixed income team. Prior to joining WisdomTree, Kevin spent 30 years at Morgan Stanley, where he was most recently a Managing Director. He was responsible for tactical and strategic recommendations and created asset allocation models for fixed income securities. He was a contributor to the Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Global Investment Committee, primary author of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management’s monthly and weekly fixed income publications, and collaborated with the firm’s Research and Consulting Group Divisions to build ETF and fund manager asset allocation models. Kevin has an MBA from Pace University’s Lubin Graduate School of Business, and a B.S in Finance from Fairfield University.
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