World Oil Production As Of March 2019

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Includes: BNO, DBO, DTO, DWT, NRGD, NRGO, NRGU, NRGZ, OIL, OILD, OILK, OILU, OILX, OLEM, OLO, SCO, SZO, UCO, USAI, USL, USO, USOD, USOI, USOU, UWT, WTID, WTIU, YGRN
by: Ron Patterson
Summary

World C+C was down 281,000 barrels per day in March.

Non-OPEC was up 218,000 barrels per day in March.

World less the USA peaked in November 2016 while the 12-month trailing average peaked in August 2017.

Non-OPEC less the USA is highly erratic. Nevertheless, the 12-month average trend is down.

The big surprise in March was China, up 115,000 barrels per day.

The data for the charts below were taken from the EIA's Monthly Energy Review. It is crude plus condensate through March 2019 and is in thousand barrels per day.

World C+C was down 281,000 barrels per day in March.

Non-OPEC was up 218,000 barrels per day in March.

World less the USA peaked in November 2016 while the 12-month trailing average peaked in August 2017.

Non-OPEC less the USA is highly erratic. Nevertheless, the 12-month average trend is down.

The big surprise in March was China, up 115,000 barrels per day.

This is the EIA's estimate of Canada through March with Canada's National Energy Board's estimate through December 2019. Notice the increasing gap between Canada's estimate and the EIA's. The separation a few years ago averaged about 130,000 bpd. Now the separation is over half a million barrels per day.

Canada reports its production in cubic meters. The conversion rate is 6.2898 barrels per cubic meter. So the discrepancy cannot be the changing weight of Canada's tar sands.

Mexico continues to trend lower.

Norway, after an increase in 2016, trending lower.

The United Kingdom seems to be holding up and trending slightly higher lately.

The Persian Gulf nations, according to the EIA, peaked in 2016, so far anyway.

And I just had to include this one. It's all up to the big three non-OPEC nations. Notice that the downward slope started in January 2017, a year and a half before the Iranian sanctions kicked in.

The data for the above chart is from the Russian Minister of Energy and is through June 2019. Russia had an increase of 42,000 barrels per day in June, a slight recovery from the pipeline disaster.

All USA data below is from the EIA's Petroleum Supply Monthly and is through April 2019 and is in thousand barrels per day.

US oil production was up 246,000 bpd in April.

The largest increase came from Texas, up 107,000 bpd.

The second largest gain came from the Gulf of Mexico, up 77,000 bpd.

Oklahoma was up 32,000 bpd in April after being relatively flat for eight months.

Colorado recovered slightly in April, up 14,000 bpd.

New Mexico was down 3,000 bpd in April, but that was after being up 41,000 bpd in February and 25,000 bpd in March

Alaska was down 6,000 bpd in April.

North Dakota is on an eight-month plateau. No one expected this. Does this mean North Dakota has peaked? There is little doubt that Eagle Ford has peaked. Will North Dakota be the second major shale basin to peak?

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.