Seeking Alpha

95 10%+ Dividend Yield Top Dogs Tagged For July

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Includes: BPT, CESDY, CNSL, GARS, GPP, ICMB, LKSD, MMLP, NNA, NTXFY, PTMN, QUAD, SEMG, SNMP, TLRD, TRMT, WPG
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

These Top 95 Dogs displayed 10%+ forward yield, $2.00+ prices, and $50M+ market caps as of 7/3/19. Yields above 13.07% winnowed the list to 30.

Target-estimated July top 10 net gains ranged 40.94-242.5% for GPP, GARS, SEMG, TRMT, CMFN, PTMN, MMLP, CNSL, TLRD, and top pick, QUAD, per YCharts dividend and broker data.

30 Top stocks estimated annual yield ranged 13.07-30.38%. Top ten, CESDY, NNA, NTXFY, TRMT, MMLP, WPG, SNMP, BPT, LKSD, and top pick, CNSL, averaged 24.57% yield.

Top 10 firms by Wall Street target price upsides: BGCP, LKSD, CATO, HX, VGR, SUP, FAT, QUAD, SNMP, and top dog, SDLP averaged a 200.93% estimated price gain.

$5k invested 7/3/19 in the lowest-priced five 10%+ top-yield 10 dividend stocks showed 11.84% more projected net gain than from $5k in all 10, per broker targets.  The low-price smaller Top Dogs again dominated this July 10%+yield pack.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Calculated 40.94% To 242.5% Net Gains For Ten 10%+ Yield Stocks By July 3, 2020

Three of ten top 10%+Yield Dogs were among the top ten gainers for the coming year (based on analyst one-year targets). So, this forecast for 10%+ yields, as graded by Wall St. brokers, was 30% accurate.

Projections based on dividends from $1,000 invested in the highest-yielding stocks and aggregate one-year analyst median target prices of those stocks, as reported by YCharts, created the 2020 data points. Note: One-year target prices from single analysts were not applied (n/a). Ten probable profit-generating trades to July 3, 2020, were:

Source: YCharts

Quad/Graphics (QUAD) was projected to net $2,435.08, based on a median target price estimate from two analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 66% more than the market as a whole.

Tailored Brands Inc. (TLRD) was projected to net $601.84, based on the median of target price estimates from two analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 93% more than the market as a whole.

Consolidated Communications Holdings Inc. (CNSL) was projected to net $548.70, based on dividends, plus the median of target estimates from five brokers, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 12% over the market as a whole.

Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP) was projected to net $536.76, based on the median of target price estimates from five analysts, plus the estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 10% over the market as a whole.

Portman Ridge Finance (PTMN) netted $500.24, based on the median of target price estimates from three analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 25% under the market as a whole.

CM Finance (CMFN) was projected to net $476.45, based on the median of target price estimates from two analysts, plus the estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 31% over the market as a whole.

Tremont Mortgage Trust (TRMT) was projected to net $449.09, based on target price estimates from two analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for TRMT.

SemGroup Corp (SEMG) was projected to net $437.99, based on a median target price estimate from 10 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 45% more than the market as a whole.

Garrison Capital (GARS) was projected to net $419.43, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from four analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 40% under the market as a whole.

Green Plains Partners (GPP) was projected to net $345.81, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 50% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 67.51% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these 10 stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 12% more than the market as a whole.

Source: thethings.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are in fact best called "underdogs".

95 10%+Yield July Top Dogs By Broker Price Target Upsides

Source: YCharts

95 10%+ Yield Top Dogs By Yield

Source: YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Top Ten 10%+Dog Yields Ranged 17.48-30.38%.

Top ten 10%+Yield Top Dogs selected 7/3/19 by yield represented six of eleven Morningstar sectors.

Top stock on the list was the lone communication services representative, Consolidated Communications Holdings Inc. [1]. Two representatives in industrials placed second and ninth, LSC Communications Inc. (LKSD) [2], and Navios Maritime Acquisition Corp. (NNA) [9].

Three energy representatives placed third, fourth, and sixth: BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) [3]; Sanchez Midstream Partners LP (SNMP) [4]; and Martin Midstream Partners LP [6].

Two real estate stocks placed fifth and seventh, Washington Prime Group (WPG) [5], and Tremont Mortgage Trust [7]. Then, one financial services representative placed eighth, Natixis (OTCPK:NTXFY) [8].

A single utilities member placed tenth, CESP - Cia Energetica de Sao Paulo (OTCPK:CESDY) [10] to complete the 10%+ Yield Top Dog top 10 for July 2019-20.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten 10%+ Yield Top Dogs Showed 21.95% To 228.42% Upsides To July 2020; (22) Lowest Downsides Found three at -7.38-17.86%.

Source: YCharts

To quantify top yield rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Cast A 17.23% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced 10%+ Yield Top Dogs To July 2020

Ten top 10%+ Yield Top Dogs were culled by yield for this July update. Yield (dividend/price) results from YCharts, verified by Yahoo Finance, did the ranking.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, top ten 10%+Yield Top Dogs selected 7/3/19 showing the highest dividend yields represented six of eleven sectors in the Morningstar scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated Five Lowest-Priced Top Ten Highest-Yield 10%+ Top Dogs (25) Delivering 33.66% Vs. (26) 28.71% Net Gains From All Ten By July 3, 2020

Source: YCharts

$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten 10%+ Yield Top Dogs collection was expected by analyst one-year targets to deliver 17.23% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all 10. The fifth lowest priced 10%+ top yield WallStar, Consolidated Communications Holdings, was projected by analysts to deliver the best net gain of 54.87%.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-priced top 10%+ Yield stocks as of July 3 were: Sanchez Midstream Partners LP, LSC Communications, Washington Prime Group, Tremont Mortgage Trust, and Consolidated Communications Holdings, with prices ranging from $2.18 to $5.10.

Five higher-priced 10%+ Dividend Top Dogs from July 2 were: CESP - Cia Energetica de Sao Paulo, Navios Maritime Acquisition, Martin Midstream Partners LP, BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust, and Natixis, whose prices ranged from $5.20 to $14.61.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of 10 reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your 10%+ Yield WallStar purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Additional disclosure: Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: thethings.com