Merk Research: U.S. Business Cycle Report July 2019

Summary

This continues to be a very challenging economic environment to analyze, with mixed signals.

I would say that the probability of a recession starting in the coming six months is as high as it's been in the expansion so far, and would estimate it to be between a 20% and 35% chance.

Of greatest concern is the inversion of the 10yr-3m yield curve.

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