S&P 500 Hits New Record High As Fed Minions Flood The Zone

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Includes: DMRL, EPS, IVV, PPLC, RSP, RVRS, RYARX, SDS, SFLA, SH, SPDN, SPLX, SPUU, SPXE, SPXL, SPXN, SPXS, SPXT, SPXU, SPXV, SPY, SSO, UPRO, USMC, VFINX, VOO
by: Ironman at Political Calculations
Summary

The S&P 500 index has achieved new record-high closing values 11 times in the past four weeks.

Investor expectations of a fourth quarter-point rate cut being announced in 2020-Q1 has been oscillating about the 50% probability mark in recent weeks.

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool has indicated the probability of that event being around 35% as of the end of trading on July 12, 2019.

At 3,013.77, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) closed at the highest level in its history on Friday, July 12, 2019, having spent the entire day trading above 3,000 for the first time ever.

Then again, the index has achieved new record-high closing values 11 times in the past four weeks. What is more notable is that investors have continued to set their forward-looking focus on 2020-Q1 in setting stock prices...

Even though investors are now expecting the Fed to cut short-term interest rates in the U.S. three times in upcoming months, with quarter-point reductions expected after the Federal Open Market Committee concludes upcoming meetings on July 31, 2019, on September 18, 2019 and on December 11, 2019.

Investor expectations of a fourth quarter-point rate cut being announced in 2020-Q1 has been oscillating about the 50% probability mark in recent weeks, with the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating the probability of that event being around 35% as of the end of trading on July 12, 2019.

That's where most of the action has been for investors looking forward in time in making their current-day investing decisions ahead of the earnings season for 2019-Q3 officially getting underway in the next week, as Fed officials have been "flooding the zone" in attempting to set future expectations. Here are the market-moving headlines we extracted from the week's news, where you can see the unusually large representation of statements made by the Fed's minions among the regular flow of news on Wednesday and Thursday...

Monday, July 8, 2019

Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Friday, July 12, 2019

Elsewhere, Barry Ritholtz listed 6 positives and 6 negatives he found among the week's major market and economy-related news. Barry also celebrated the fifth anniversary of his Bloomberg Radio Masters In Business - if you've been looking for a podcast focused on business and finance topics to tune in during your daily commute, do check it out!

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.