Seeking Alpha

Bulletproof Investing Performance Update: Week 86

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Includes: AMD, AZO, BBD, CHD, CIEN, DORM, EEFT, HTZ, LLY, MPW, O, ORLY, PAYC, SAVE, SBUX, SPY, TDS, TZA, ULTA, XLNX
by: David Pinsen
Summary

It has been six months since I presented five hedged portfolios and 10 top names in week 86 of my Marketplace service (January 17). Here's how everything did.

All five hedged portfolios posted positive returns, but only one outperformed its expected return, and none outperformed SPY's high bar.

The top names (unhedged) outperformed SPY. So far, they've averaged 7.1% over 85 weekly six-month cohorts versus 5.32% for SPY, for an annualized outperformance of 3.54%.

Race car driver Mikaela Ahlin-Kottulinsky and her helmet (photo via Forbes).

Bulletproof Investing: Week 86 Performance

Each week since the beginning of June 2017, I have presented at least two hedged portfolios created by Portfolio Armor to my Bulletproof Investing subscribers. This is an "investing with a helmet on" approach, and these portfolios are designed to last six months at most. As with any investment method, the returns with this approach will vary. But in the interests of transparency and accountability, I have promised to publicly share the final performance of everything I present, regardless of how it does.

Here, I update the final performance of the five hedged portfolios and the top 10 names (unhedged) that I presented in the 86th week I offered my service. Let's look at what I presented in week 86 and how it did.

Portfolio 1

This was the $30,000 portfolio. The primary securities here were Starbucks (SBUX) and Eli Lilly (LLY). They were selected because they had the highest potential return estimates, net of hedging costs when hedging against >13% declines, and they had share prices low enough that you could buy round lots of them for less than $10,000. The Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X ETF (TZA) was added in a fine-tuning step to absorb leftover cash from rounding down to round lots of the first two names (as I've mentioned previously, the portfolio construction algorithm sometimes includes inverse ETFs during market transitions).

The image above was generated by Portfolio Armor on January 17th and presented in this Marketplace post at the time.

The worst-case scenario for this portfolio was a decline of 12.49% (the "max drawdown"), and the best-case scenario was a gain of 20.63% (the "Net Potential Return" or aggregate potential return net of hedging cost). The "Expected Return" of 8.11% was a ballpark estimate, taking into account the historic relationship between actual returns and Portfolio Armor's potential return estimates.

Portfolio 1 Performance

Here's how the portfolio did, net of hedging and trading costs.

This portfolio was up 5.55%, underperforming its expected return and underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY). Somewhat frustratingly, this one was beating its expected return handily as recently as July 14th, as you can see in the interactive version of the chart linked to in the table below.

So far, we have six-month performance data for 34 portfolios I've presented that were hedged against >13% declines. Here's how all of them have done (click on a starting date to go to an interactive version of that chart).

Portfolios Hedged Against > 13.0% Declines

Starting Date Expected Return Actual Return SPY Return
February 8, 2018 6.57% 5.29% 11.75%
June 7, 2018 8.18% -8.90% -4.12%
June 14, 2018 12.69% -7.07% -5.71%
June 21, 2018 11.30% -7.14% -11.31%
June 28, 2018 11.89% -5.45% -7.58%
July 5, 2018 9.79% -2.85% -6.61%
July 12, 2018 10.38% -8.45% -6.32%
July 19, 2018 10.89% -10.78% -3.83%
July 26, 2018 7.49% -9.83% -5.21%
August 2, 2018 11.71% -7.39% -3.36%
August 9, 2018 11.80% -2.21% -4.12%
August 16, 2018 15.01% 2.44% -1.33%
August 23, 2018 11.01% -6.89% -1.30%
August 30, 2018 12.71% -7.43% -2.99%
September 6, 2018 13.82% -7.66% -2.75%
September 13, 2018 17.20% -4.31% -2.25%
September 20, 2018 14.27% 1.95% -2.66%
September 27, 2018 13.66% -3.84% -2.80%
October 4, 2018 10.52% 8.56% 0.25%
October 11, 2018 8.33% 2.26% 6.99%
October 18, 2018 9.07% -1.54% 6.02%
October 25, 2018 6.61% -5.75% 9.26%
November 1, 2018 8.44% 6.78% 7.80%
November 8, 2018 9.64% 4.18% 3.57%
November 15, 2018 8.21% 1.09% 5.49%
November 21, 2018 9.42% 6.55% 9.23%
November 29, 2018 11.49% 19.01% 2.62%
December 6, 2018 9.02% 0.03% 6.64%
December 13, 2018 8.52% 0.27% 10.26%
December 20, 2018 5.39% 1.07% 20.94%
December 27, 2018 6.41% 4.36% 18.60%
January 3, 2019 6.28% 3.44% 23.49%
January 10, 2019 7.39% 16.40% 16.42%
January 17, 2019 8.11% 5.55% 14.28%
Average 10.09% -0.54% 2.92%

Table via Portfolio Armor

Portfolio 2

This was the $100k portfolio. This one included Ciena (CIEN), Dorman Products (DORM), LLY, and SBUX as primary securities. Hertz Global (HTZ) was added in the fine-tuning step again to absorb cash left over from the process of rounding down to round lots of the primary securities.

The image above was generated by Portfolio Armor on January 17 and presented in this Marketplace post at the time.

The worst-case scenario for this one was a decline of 13.55%, the best-case scenario was a gain of 20.94%, and the ballpark estimate of an expected return was 8.26%.

Portfolio 2 Performance

Here's how the portfolio did, net of hedging and trading costs.

This one was up 6.13%. So far, we have six-month performance data for 40 portfolios I've presented hedged against >14% declines. Here's how all of them have done (click on a starting date to go to an interactive version of that chart).

Portfolios Hedged Against > 14.0% Declines

Starting Date Expected Return Actual Return SPY Return
December 28, 2017 9.33% 9.95% 1.99%
January 18, 2018 9.32% 9.65% 1.55%
January 25, 2018 9.33% 5.65% 1.10%
February 8, 2018 6.21% 6.58% 11.75%
February 15, 2018 8.37% -6.65% 4.08%
February 15, 2018 6.95% -8.55% 4.08%
May 24, 2018 10.19% -3.39% -2.63%
May 24, 2018 11.16% -7.08% -2.63%
May 31, 2018 6.97% -1.57% 2.66%
June 7, 2018 7.11% -4.27% -4.12%
June 14, 2018 12.74% -6.08% -5.71%
June 21, 2018 12.38% -10.71% -11.31%
June 28, 2018 11.20% -7.76% -7.58%
July 5, 2018 9.16% -5.18% -6.61%
July 12, 2018 10.90% -7.76% -6.32%
July 19, 2018 10.57% -10.43% -3.83%
July 26, 2018 8.99% -6.50% -5.21%
August 2, 2018 10.75% -8.11% -3.36%
August 9, 2018 11.25% -2.06% -4.12%
August 16, 2018 14.23% -2.27% -1.33%
August 23, 2018 13.43% 0.67% -1.30%
August 30, 2018 12.07% -8.29% -2.99%
September 6, 2018 15.29% -8.61% -2.75%
September 13, 2018 15.78% -3.48% -2.25%
September 20, 2018 12.31% -2.43% -2.66%
September 27, 2018 15.60% -10.62% -2.80%
October 4, 2018 9.87% 7.16% 0.25%
October 11, 2018 8.67% 0.36% 6.99%
October 18, 2018 8.77% -2.81% 6.02%
October 25, 2018 7.78% 4.41% 9.26%
November 1, 2018 9.07% 7.97% 7.80%
November 8, 2018 10.10% 4.98% 3.57%
November 15, 2018 10.85% 6.45% 5.49%
November 21, 2018 7.92% 2.29% 9.23%
November 29, 2018 12.18% 3.69% 2.62%
December 6, 2018 10.60% 0.52% 6.64%
December 13, 2018 9.09% 0.68% 10.26%
December 20, 2018 7.03% 3.85% 20.94%
December 27, 2018 6.88% 3.98% 18.60%
January 3, 2019 6.90% 12.87% 23.49%
January 10, 2019 7.22% 7.14% 16.42%
January 17, 2019 8.26% 6.13% 14.28%
Average 10.07% -0.70% 2.61%

Portfolio 3

This was the $1 million portfolio. It included CIEN, DORM, Euronet Worldwide (EEFT), LLY, SBUX, and Xilinx (XLNX) as primary securities. HTZ was added in the fine-tuning step to absorb cash left over from the process of rounding down to round lots of the primary securities.

The image above was generated by Portfolio Armor on January 17 and presented in this Marketplace post at the time.

The worst-case scenario here was a drawdown of 14.58%, the best-case scenario was a gain of 20.64% (the net potential return), and the expected return was 7.51%.

Portfolio 3 Performance

Here's how the portfolio did, net of hedging and trading costs.

This one was up 6.15%. So far, we have six-month performance data for 58 portfolios I've presented hedged against >15% declines. Here's how all of them have done (click on a starting date to go to an interactive version of that chart).

Portfolios Hedged Against > 15.0% Declines

Starting Date Expected Return Actual Return SPY Return
April 23, 2017 6.74% 15.41% 10.25%
December 31, 2017 8.90% 13.07% 2.52%
January 29, 2018 8.52% 9.88% -0.30%
February 1, 2018 8.70% 0.87% 0.59%
February 1, 2018 7.30% -5.69% 0.59%
February 22, 2018 7.91% 5.74% 6.73%
March 1, 2018 7.45% 5.80% 9.37%
March 8, 2018 7.73% -4.26% 5.82%
March 8, 2018 7.47% -1.77% 5.82%
March 15, 2018 7.80% 1.73% 6.68%
March 15, 2018 7.21% -4.70% 6.68%
March 22, 2018 7.40% 5.89% 11.74%
March 22, 2018 7.41% 3.20% 11.74%
March 29, 2018 8.07% 5.03% 11.48%
March 29, 2018 7.57% 4.47% 11.48%
March 31, 2018 8.04% 9.06% 11.48%
April 5, 2018 10.88% -3.70% 9.33%
April 5, 2018 10.57% -1.33% 9.33%
April 12, 2018 9.02% 3.66% 4.71%
April 26, 2018 10.16% 14.99% 0.53%
April 26, 2018 9.78% 5.01% 0.53%
May 3, 2018 9.57% 2.47% 4.47%
May 10, 2018 8.74% -2.96% 3.03%
May 17, 2018 12.15% 4.72% 1.54%
May 17, 2018 11.00% -0.74% 1.54%
May 31, 2018 7.44% -2.33% 2.66%
June 7, 2018 8.11% -9.65% -4.12%
June 14, 2018 11.96% -8.61% -5.71%
June 21, 2018 11.49% -11.82% -11.31%
June 28, 2018 11.41% -7.70% -7.58%
July 5, 2018 8.99% -6.88% -6.61%
July 12, 2018 9.64% -4.41% -6.32%
July 19, 2018 10.59% -10.71% -3.83%
July 26, 2018 9.41% -8.27% -5.21%
August 2, 2018 9.47% -6.12% -3.36%
August 9, 2018 12.22% -1.73% -4.12%
August 16, 2018 13.82% -0.80% -1.33%
August 23, 2018 14.61% -4.40% -1.30%
August 30, 2018 12.46% -8.91% -2.99%
September 6, 2018 13.61% -4.93% -2.75%
September 13, 2018 16.43% -5.37% -2.25%
September 20, 2018 13.07% -0.82% -2.66%
September 27, 2018 14.11% -4.31% -2.80%
October 4, 2018 10.20% 1.05% 0.25%
October 11, 2018 9.01% 4.25% 6.99%
October 18, 2018 8.84% 0.20% 6.02%
October 25, 2018 8.51% 3.56% 9.26%
November 1, 2018 8.03% 9.04% 7.80%
November 8, 2018 9.13% 1.87% 3.57%
November 15, 2018 9.57% 6.50% 5.49%
November 21, 2018 8.25% 0.59% 9.23%
November 29, 2018 12.28% -0.11% 2.62%
December 6, 2018 8.80% 1.80% 6.64%
December 13, 2018 9.42% -1.73% 10.26%
December 20, 2018 6.73% 4.24% 20.94%
December 27, 2018 6.51% 8.54% 18.60%
January 3, 2019 6.39% 8.38% 23.49%
January 10, 2019 7.14% 4.64% 16.42%
January 17, 2019 7.51% 6.15% 14.28%
Average 9.51% 0.63% 4.03%

Table via Portfolio Armor

Portfolio 4

This was the $2 million aggressive portfolio. This one included CIEN, DORM, EEFT, LLY, Spirit Airlines (SAVE), SBUX, XLNX as primary securities. Paycom (PAYC) was added to absorb leftover cash in the fine-tuning step.

The image above was generated by Portfolio Armor on January 17 and presented in this Marketplace post at the time.

The worst-case scenario here was the max drawdown of 19.6%, the best-case scenario was the net potential return of 22.03%, and the expected return was 8.33%.

Portfolio 4 Performance

Here's how the portfolio did, net of hedging and trading costs.

This one was up 8.71%. So far, we have six-month performance data for 68 portfolios I've presented hedged against >20% declines. Here's how all of them have done (click on a starting date to go to an interactive version of that chart).

Portfolios Hedged Against > 20.0% Declines

Starting Date Expected Return Actual Return SPY Return
June 22, 2017 8.43% 20.08% 11.27%
August 31, 2017 8.03% 9.10% 10.87%
October 12, 2017 9.00% 2.12% 5.38%
October 19, 2017 10.07% 13.05% 6.08%
October 26, 2017 8.57% 9.39% 5.13%
November 2, 2017 9.77% 10.67% 3.11%
November 9, 2017 9.59% 4.45% 5.34%
November 16, 2017 8.95% 5.18% 6.22%
November 22, 2017 9.39% 7.31% 5.90%
November 30, 2017 8.55% -4.74% 3.80%
December 8, 2017 8.34% 4.50% 5.73%
December 14, 2017 7.75% 17.49% 5.87%
December 21, 2017 9.33% 12.33% 3.36%
December 28, 2017 9.92% 9.45% 1.99%
January 4, 2018 9.65% 12.92% 0.59%
January 11, 2018 8.93% 9.14% 1.12%
January 18, 2018 9.40% 7.89% 1.55%
January 25, 2018 9.82% 6.19% 1.10%
January 29, 2018 9.29% 10.48% -0.30%
February 1, 2018 9.00% 0.84% 0.59%
February 8, 2018 7.35% 12.49% 11.75%
February 15, 2018 8.19% -6.14% 4.08%
February 22, 2018 8.54% 6.90% 6.73%
March 1, 2018 7.98% 6.66% 9.37%
March 8, 2018 8.32% -3.20% 5.82%
March 15, 2018 7.90% 2.50% 6.68%
March 22, 2018 7.65% 8.82% 11.74%
March 22, 2018 7.62% 9.58% 11.74%
March 29, 2018 8.26% 7.72% 11.48%
April 5, 2018 10.59% 0.20% 9.33%
April 12, 2018 9.36% 4.63% 4.71%
April 19, 2018 11.04% 17.36% 3.67%
April 26, 2018 10.32% 17.44% 0.53%
May 3, 2018 10.08% 7.54% 4.47%
May 10, 2018 8.64% 2.61% 3.03%
May 17, 2018 11.53% -4.37% 1.54%
May 24, 2018 11.74% -6.80% -2.63%
May 31, 2018 7.76% -4.70% 2.66%
June 7, 2018 8.62% -11.51% -4.12%
June 14, 2018 13.05% -9.78% -5.71%
June 21, 2018 12.44% -17.22% -11.31%
June 28, 2018 11.80% -7.95% -7.58%
July 5, 2018 9.11% -13.03% -6.61%
July 12, 2018 9.97% -8.37% -6.32%
July 19, 2018 10.82% -10.54% -3.83%
July 26, 2018 9.87% -6.70% -5.21%
August 2, 2018 9.76% -3.91% -3.36%
August 9, 2018 12.78% -1.44% -4.12%
August 16, 2018 14.60% 0.79% -1.33%
August 23, 2018 15.20% 0.71% -1.30%
August 30, 2018 13.16% -7.98% -2.99%
September 6, 2018 13.66% -4.72% -2.75%
September 13, 2018 17.32% -5.23% -2.25%
September 20, 2018 13.73% -0.28% -2.66%
September 27, 2018 14.71% -7.29% -2.80%
October 4, 2018 10.11% -0.33% 0.25%
October 11, 2018 9.61% 4.16% 6.99%
October 18, 2018 9.03% 5.07% 6.02%
October 25, 2018 9.45% -0.89% 9.26%
November 1, 2018 8.12% 9.46% 7.80%
November 8, 2018 9.33% 2.52% 3.57%
November 15, 2018 9.78% 7.03% 5.49%
November 21, 2018 8.95% 6.12% 9.23%
November 29, 2018 13.02% 0.82% 2.62%
December 6, 2018 9.15% 2.26% 6.64%
December 13, 2018 9.97% -1.15% 10.26%
December 20, 2018 7.73% -2.06% 20.94%
December 27, 2018 7.02% 4.93% 18.60%
January 3, 2019 7.62% 7.90% 23.49%
January 10, 2019 7.56% 5.84% 16.42%
January 17, 2019 8.33% 8.71% 14.28%
Average 9.86% 2.72% 3.93%

Table via Portfolio Armor

Portfolio 5

This was the $2 million top names portfolio. Names that appeared in this portfolio but not in the previous January 17 portfolios were AMD (AMD), Medical Properties Trust (MPW), and Telephone and Data Systems (TDS).

The image above was generated by Portfolio Armor on January 17 and presented in this Marketplace post at the time.

The worst-case scenario was a drawdown of 8.53%, the best-case scenario was a gain of 15.94%, and the expected return was 5.28%.

Portfolio 5 Performance

Here's how the portfolio did, net of hedging and trading costs.

This portfolio was up 3.68%, outperforming its expected return. So far, we have a full six-month performance for 84 portfolios I've presented hedged against >9% declines. Here's how each of them did (click on a starting date to go to an interactive version of that chart).

Portfolios Hedged Against > 9.0% Declines

Starting Date Expected Return Actual Return SPY Return
June 8, 2017 6.11% 9.25% 9.99%
June 16, 2017 5.13% 11.59% 10.94%
June 22, 2017 5.43% 13.88% 11.27%
June 29, 2017 6.72% 12.92% 11.68%
July 7, 2017 6.29% 8.40% 14.07%
July 13, 2017 6.70% 12.96% 14.85%
July 20, 2017 6.57% 10.34% 14.62%
July 27, 2017 5.61% 8.20% 17.10%
August 3, 2017 8.84% 13.98% 12.66%
August 3, 2017 8.46% 16.52% 12.66%
August 10, 2017 6.15% 4.05% 8.36%
August 17, 2017 8.11% 9.12% 13.48%
August 17, 2017 7.06% 9.41% 13.48%
August 24, 2017 6.79% 8.97% 13.72%
August 31, 2017 7.43% 4.65% 10.87%
September 7, 2017 6.33% 9.51% 11.61%
September 14, 2017 7.25% 11.27% 11.19%
September 22, 2017 6.41% 10.55% 6.67%
September 28, 2017 6.27% 8.35% 4.73%
October 5, 2017 7.33% 4.62% 5.26%
October 5, 2017 8.36% 8.68% 5.26%
October 12, 2017 6.58% 5.10% 5.38%
October 19, 2017 7.91% 9.63% 6.08%
October 26, 2017 7.63% 9.34% 5.13%
November 2, 2017 6.15% 4.72% 3.11%
November 9, 2017 7.09% -1.48% 5.34%
November 16, 2017 7.13% 8.93% 6.22%
November 22, 2017 6.76% -0.85% 5.90%
November 30, 2017 6.53% -1.80% 3.80%
December 8, 2017 5.10% 4.88% 5.73%
December 14, 2017 6.15% 12.47% 5.87%
December 14, 2017 6.75% 13.47% 5.87%
December 21, 2017 6.70% 0.83% 3.36%
December 28, 2017 7.70% 14.94% 1.99%
December 28, 2017 7.88% 6.19% 1.99%
January 4, 2018 8.65% 10.83% 0.59%
January 4, 2018 9.30% 15.12% 0.59%
January 11, 2018 7.59% -2.69% 1.12%
January 18, 2018 6.81% -0.21% 1.55%
January 25, 2018 8.66% 3.47% 1.10%
February 1, 2018 6.59% 1.69% 0.59%
February 8, 2018 4.74% 8.07% 11.75%
February 15, 2018 6.37% -2.10% 4.08%
February 22, 2018 5.44% 1.72% 6.73%
March 1, 2018 5.05% 4.68% 9.37%
March 8, 2018 6.39% -3.81% 5.82%
March 15, 2018 5.23% 1.31% 6.68%
March 22, 2018 5.98% 4.01% 11.74%
March 29, 2018 5.93% 4.77% 11.48%
April 5, 2018 6.91% 3.35% 9.33%
April 12, 2018 8.35% -0.64% 4.71%
April 12, 2018 9.09% -2.72% 4.71%
April 19, 2018 8.86% 1.04% 3.67%
April 19, 2018 9.66% -4.07% 3.67%
April 26, 2018 7.33% 5.67% 0.53%
April 26, 2018 7.72% 7.56% 0.53%
May 3, 2018 10.67% -1.73% 4.47%
May 3, 2018 8.33% 1.96% 4.47%
May 10, 2018 7.96% 2.84% 3.03%
May 17, 2018 7.87% 0.60% 1.54%
May 24, 2018 8.65% -5.27% -2.63%
May 31, 2018 6.22% -0.19% 2.66%
June 7, 2018 7.23% -6.52% -4.12%
June 14, 2018 9.44% -4.69% -5.71%
June 21, 2018 9.35% -7.29% -11.31%
June 28, 2018 7.13% -7.56% -7.58%
July 5, 2018 7.70% -5.45% -6.61%
July 12, 2018 8.22% -6.77% -6.32%
July 19, 2018 7.21% -5.21% -3.83%
July 26, 2018 6.47% -5.21% -5.21%
August 2, 2018 7.71% -0.32% -3.36%
August 9, 2018 11.83% -0.96% -4.12%
August 16, 2018 10.73% -5.46% -1.33%
August 23, 2018 9.69% -3.52% -1.30%
August 30, 2018 10.23% -7.59% -2.99%
September 6, 2018 10.52% -6.09% -2.75%
September 13, 2018 9.17% -3.47% -2.25%
September 20, 2018 9.31% -1.86% -2.66%
September 27, 2018 9.98% -5.35% -2.80%
October 4, 2018 6.98% -1.76% 0.25%
October 11, 2018 6.78% 4.03% 6.99%
October 18, 2018 8.29% 1.97% 6.02%
October 25, 2018 6.43% 1.78% 9.26%
November 1, 2018 6.27% 4.74% 7.80%
November 8, 2018 8.35% -2.01% 3.57%
November 15, 2018 7.87% 0.16% 5.49%
November 21, 2018 7.21% 2.16% 9.23%
November 29, 2018 9.54% -1.05% 2.62%
December 6, 2018 7.78% -0.60% 6.64%
December 13, 2018 7.37% -3.27% 10.26%
December 20, 2018 3.99% 3.10% 20.94%
December 27, 2018 4.67% 3.44% 18.60%
January 3, 2019 4.54% 4.43% 23.49%
January 10, 2019 4.62% 7.21% 16.42%
January 17, 2019 5.28% 3.68% 14.28%
Average 7.34% 3.09% 5.28%

Table via Portfolio Armor

One note about the table above: It includes both $100k portfolios and $1M portfolios. Starting with the May 24 cohort, I began presenting $100k portfolios hedged against >14% declines, so they appear in a different table from that point forward. My guess is that will slightly improve the average performance of the portfolios hedged against >9% declines.

Top Names

These were Portfolio Armor's top 10 names as of January 17th. Names that didn't appear in the portfolios above were Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Banco Bradesco (BBD), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Church & Dwight (CHD), Realty Income (O), and AutoZone (AZO).

The image above was generated by Portfolio Armor on January 17 and was included in the same Marketplace post as the top names portfolio above.

For this cohort, as of January 17th:

  • Average 36M Beta = 0.79
  • Average 20% threshold optimal put hedging cost: 2.62%

Top Names Performance

Here's how the top names did:

The top names (unhedged) were up 14.46% on average vs. up 14.28% for SPY. So far, 48 top names cohorts have beaten SPY, one has tied SPY, and 36 have underperformed SPY over the next six months. You can see the performance for all of the top name cohorts I've presented so far in the table below (click on a starting date to go to an interactive version of that chart).

Starting Date Portfolio Armor 6-Month Performance SPY 6-Month Performance
June 8, 2017 14.49% 9.99%
June 15, 2017 19.85% 10.97%
June 22, 2017 24.46% 11.27%
June 29, 2017 18.24% 11.68%
July 6, 2017 21.03% 14.81%
July 13, 2017 28.25% 14.85%
July 20, 2017 25.04% 14.62%
July 27, 2017 33.52% 17.10%
August 3, 2017 20.72% 12.66%
August 10, 2017 13.05% 8.36%
August 17, 2017 10.71% 13.48%
August 24, 2017 15.23% 13.72%
August 31, 2017 8.42% 10.87%
September 7, 2017 12.75% 11.61%
September 14, 2017 29.19% 11.19%
September 21, 2017 22.56% 9.42%
September 28, 2017 14.30% 4.73%
October 5, 2017 11.53% 5.26%
October 12, 2017 15.46% 5.38%
October 19, 2017 20.73% 6.08%
October 26, 2017 18.10% 5.13%
November 2, 2017 12.64% 3.11%
November 9, 2017 5.41% 5.34%
November 16, 2017 6.11% 6.22%
November 23, 2017 5.18% 6.19%
November 30, 2017 -0.19% 3.80%
December 7, 2017 11.51% 5.99%
December 14, 2017 29.80% 5.87%
December 21, 2017 17.11% 3.36%
December 28, 2017 13.78% 1.99%
January 4, 2018 30.22% 0.59%
January 11, 2018 -2.06% 1.12%
January 18, 2018 7.00% 1.55%
January 25, 2018 1.73% 1.10%
February 1, 2018 11.02% 0.59%
February 8, 2018 25.21% 11.75%
February 15, 2018 4.31% 4.08%
February 22, 2018 19.48% 6.73%
March 1, 2018 10.64% 9.37%
March 8, 2018 5.82% 5.82%
March 15, 2018 6.99% 6.68%
March 22, 2018 8.64% 11.74%
March 29, 2018 14.68% 11.48%
April 5, 2018 9.76% 9.33%
April 12, 2018 -2.29% 4.71%
April 19, 2018 4.66% 3.67%
April 26, 2018 2.30% 0.53%
May 3, 2018 10.96% 4.47%
May 10, 2018 7.01% 3.03%
May 17, 2018 -6.70% 1.54%
May 24, 2018 -5.60% -2.63%
May 31, 2018 -7.91% 2.66%
June 7, 2018 -14.13% -4.12%
June 14, 2018 -2.98% -5.71%
June 21, 2018 -24.51% -11.31%
June 28, 2018 -23.90% -7.58%
July 5, 2018 -18.58% -6.61%
July 12, 2018 -9.02% -6.32%
July 19, 2018 -13.53% -3.83%
July 26, 2018 -11.30% -5.21%
August 2, 2018 -9.38% -3.36%
August 9, 2018 -6.62% -4.12%
August 16, 2018 -7.01% -1.33%
August 23, 2018 -5.88% -1.30%
August 30, 2018 -9.88% -2.99%
September 6, 2018 -9.20% -2.75%
September 13, 2018 -5.19% -2.25%
September 20, 2018 1.58% -2.66%
September 27, 2018 0.20% -2.80%
October 4, 2018 5.54% 0.25%
October 11, 2018 8.88% 6.99%
October 18, 2018 -5.10% 6.02%
October 25, 2018 5.28% 9.26%
November 1, 2018 5.29% 7.80%
November 8, 2018 -0.72% 3.57%
November 15, 2018 2.10% 5.49%
November 21, 2018 10.46% 9.23%
November 29, 2018 -3.16% 2.62%
December 6, 2018 2.08% 6.64%
December 13, 2018 7.15% 10.26%
December 20, 2018 19.17% 20.94%
December 27, 2018 7.41% 18.60%
January 3, 2019 26.63% 23.49%
January 10, 2019 12.23% 16.42%
January 17, 2019 14.46% 14.28%
Average 7.10% 5.32%

Table via Portfolio Armor

So Portfolio Armor's top 10 names averaged 7.10% over the average of these 85 six-month periods versus SPY's average of 5.32%, an average outperformance of 1.77% over six months, or 3.54% annualized.

Top Names Time-Stamped

For a few months, in addition to posting those top names in my Seeking Alpha Marketplace service, I also time-stamped them on Twitter. If you click on the tweet shown below and scroll down, it will take you to a thread showing those time-stamped posts as well as charts of their subsequent performance.

Week 86 Assessment

The top 10 names (unhedged) outperformed SPY for the 48th time out of 85 weeks (we didn't post the top 10 in week 1), but only one of the hedged portfolios outperformed its expected return. This was due, in part, to market conditions requiring the use of collars in more cases, which limited upside potential. Overall, this was a middling performance.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.