Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 16.8% To 39.2% Net Gains By Ten US REITs Come July/August 2020
Seven of ten top dividend-yielding US Real Estate Investment Trust stocks found their way into the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below). Thus, our yield-based forecast for REIT stocks was certified 70% accurate by broker target forecasts.
Projections based on estimated dividend returns from $1,000 invested in each of the highest yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, created the 2019-20 data points. Note: one-year target prices from one analyst were not applied (n/a). Ten probable profit-generating trades projected by brokers to July 2020, were:
Global Net Lease (GNL) netted $391.85 based on median target price estimates from three analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 29% less than the market as a whole.
New Residential Investment (NRZ) was projected to net $367.68 based on dividends plus median target price estimates by nine analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 8% over the market as a whole.
Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI) was projected to net $331.89 based on dividends plus mean target price estimates from three analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 66% less than the market as a whole.
Dynex Capital (DX) was projected to net $217.39 based on dividends plus target price estimates from four analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 37% less than the market as a whole.
Ready Capital (RC) was projected to net $203.37 based on dividends plus a median target estimate from seven brokers less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 23% less than the market as a whole.
Two Harbors Investment (TWO) was projected to net $198.69 based on median target price estimates from nine analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 17% less than the market as a whole.
Hospitality Properties Trust (HPT) was projected to net $194.81 based on median target price estimates from five analysts plus annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 2% less than the market as a whole.
Great Ajax (AJX) was projected to net $191.50 based on dividends plus median target price estimates from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 19% less than the market as a whole.
AG Mortgage Investment (MITT) made the list with a projected net gain of $183.29 based on median target price estimates from four analysts plus their estimated annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 6% under the market as a whole.
Western Asset Mortgage (WMC) was found to net $168.13 based on median target price estimates from four analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 21% less than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 24.49% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average risk 12% under the market as a whole.
The Dividend Dogs Rule
Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".
50 Top US REITs By Target Gains
Top 50 US REITs By Yield
Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Yield Metrics Ranked 10 Top US Monthly REITs
Top ten US Real Estate Investment Trusts of July/August selected 7/22/19 by yield represented three of seven constituent industries.
The first of four residential REIT industry representative in the top ten took the lead - New Residential Investment . The other three residential members placed second, third, and seventh - New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT) , Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment , and Two Harbors Investment .
The first of five diversified REITs placed fourth - Dynex Capital . Thereafter followed by diversified REIT representatives in the fourth, fifth, eighth, and tenth spots - AG Mortgage Investment Trust , Western Asset Mortgage Capital , Global Net Lease , and MFA Financial (MFA) .
Finally, the lone healthcare REIT placed ninth - The GEO Group (GEO) - to complete the top ten July/August US REITs by yield.
Actionable Conclusions: (21) Top Ten US REITs Reported 12.85% To 39.26% Price Upsides To June 2020; (22) Six Downsides Ranged -1.4% To - 3.72% Per Broker Target Reckoning
To quantify top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield "dog" metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.
Broker Targets Indicated A 10.8% Disadvantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced US REITs July/August 2020
Ten top US REITs were culled by yield for their monthly update. Yield (dividend/price) results verified by YCharts did the ranking. The list was further limited to stocks reporting better than -30% total returns.
As noted above, top ten Real Estate WallStars selected 7/22/19 showing the highest dividend yields represented three of seven industries constituting the REIT sector.
Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Charted 5 Lowest-Priced Of the Top Ten Highest-Yield US REIT Dogs (23) Delivering 19.76% Vs. (24) 22.15% Net Gains by All Ten Come July/August 2020
$5,000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten REIT kennel by yield were predicted by analyst 1-year targets to deliver 10.8% LESS gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The tenth lowest priced Real Estate top yield equity, Global Net Lease, was projected to gain 39.19%
The five lowest-priced top yield US REITs as of July 22 were: New York Mortgage Trust, MFA Financial, Western Asset Mortgage Capital, Two Harbors Investment, and New Residential Investment, with prices ranging from $6.09 to $15.17.
Five higher-priced WallStar REITs were: Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment, AG Mortgage Investment Trust, The GEO Group, Dynex Capital, and Global Net Lease, with prices ranging from $15.62 to $18.64.
The distinction between five low-priced dividend stocks and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.
The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.
Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your United States Exchange Real Estate Investment Trust stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by YCharts. Home dog photo: hgtv.com
Get The REIT 'Safer' Dividend Dog Story
Click here to subscribe to The Dividend Dogcatcher & get more information.
Catch A Dog On Facebook At 8:45 AM every NYSE trade day on Facebook/Dividend Dog Catcher, A Fredrik Arnold live video highlights a portfolio candidate in the Underdog Daily Dividend Show!
Root for the Underdog. Comment below on any stock ticker to make it eligible for my next FA follower report.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.