July Average Jobs Slowdown Signals A Waking Bear

Aug. 02, 2019 6:19 PM ET6 Comments
J.G. Collins profile picture
J.G. Collins


  • Average three month jobs slow to 140,000; 6 month to 165,000.
  • Average three month and six month jobs creation numbers are the lowest since May, 2017, and September, 2012, respectively.
  • Coupled with 2019Q2 GDP data, data points to an imminent slowdown.

New York (August 2nd) - The July jobs report printed at a robust 164,000 new jobs, in line with the consensus estimate. But revisions for May (-10,000) and June (-31,000) netted 41,000 fewer jobs.

The revisions resulted in average three months job creation of just 140,000, jobs and for the six months. That compares to 157,000 average three months and 165,000 six months new jobs for June 2019 and 214,000 and 215,000 jobs for those same periods, respectively, for June of last year.Job creation was down 0.6% from the same month last year, which had printed at 165,000. It was up 15% from June, which printed at a revised 193,000 new jobs.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.7%, unchanged from June, but down 2/10ths of a percentage point from July, 2018. The seasonally adjusted U-6 Unemployment, at 7.0%, down 2/10ths of a perrcentage point from May, and down 3/10ths of a percentage point since last year.

Nominal average weekly wages increased by 2.61%, year on year, at a rate higher than inflation. Real wages increased by just 0.61%, assuming the June Trimmed Mean PCE annual inflation rate of 2.0%. However, month-on-month average weekly wages declined by about a nickel and average weekly hours declined slightly, by 1/10th of an hour.

Analysis: Details and Outlook

In our March jobs report, we urged investors who were in or near retirement to move toward cash. Our confidence had improved since then, but we are growing more circumspect, led by the decline in average GDP (discussed in our 2019Q2 GDP report); today’s average jobs creation for the three and six months, cited above, and particularly the revisions; and the July decline in month-on wages and hours.

Still, we are not not substantially less confident than we were in our June jobs report or our

This article was written by

J.G. Collins profile picture
Before establishing The Stuyvesant Square Consultancy, J.G. Collins spent some 30 years building a career in executive and consulting financial roles, with a particular emphasis in business taxation. His experience spans work for Fortune 100 companies, one of the former “Big Eight” international accounting firms, and client service for large middle-market public accounting firms. He has advised domestic and foreign clients in the tax-efficient structuring of legal entities, effective tax rate planning, mergers and acquisitions, corporate reorganizations, treasury operations, financial instruments, international taxation, tax accounting under GAAP, state and local taxation, and sales and miscellaneous taxes. He has managed countless federal and state tax audits to successful resolutions for clients. His experience spans a diverse array of industries, including private equity, motion pictures and music entertainment, fashion, real estate, publishing, technology development, retail, and oil and gas. Mr. Collins conceived and branded the specialty industry entertainment practice of one of the nation’s leading accounting firms and oversaw the business tax marketing program for business enterprises of another large regional firm. Mr. Collins’ marketing collateral and published articles have been extraordinarily well received because of his ability to present intricate and complex aspects of tax, business, policy, and politics in clear, concise, easily understandable prose devoid of jargon and irrelevant detail. An astute, data-driven observer of business, politics and economics, Mr. Collins has advised political candidates and public officials on campaign, political and policy matters for more than two decades, and has twice been a delegate to his political party’s national quadrennial convention to nominate the American president. His expertise as a champion debater and orator in his student days, along with his savvy marketing expertise, has allowed Mr. Collins to coach private and public sector executives and candidates on public speaking, speech writing, message development and successful business presentations. Campaign collateral he developed for political campaigns has been used in university courses as an “excellent example of persuasive campaign advertising”. Mr. Collins holds degrees in Economics and Accounting from the Stern School of Business, New York University. His elective coursework included a number of political science courses, including International Politics, International Organizations, European Politics and other more basic political science courses.

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