88 10%+ Dividend Yield Top Dogs Cavort In August

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Includes: AM, BBVA, BPT, CHMI, FSK, GARS, GPP, ICMB, MMLP, NNA, NTXFY, ORC, PTMN, SEMG, SMLP, SUP, TLRD
by: Fredrik Arnold
Summary

These Top 88 Dogs showed 10%+ forward yield, $2.00+ prices, and $50 million+ market caps as of 8/1/19. Yields above 12.5% winnowed the list to 30.

Target-estimated August top 10 net gains ranged 35.28%-310.12% for SEMG, CHMI, FSK, GARS, GPP, CMFN, BBVA, AM, TLRD, and top pick, SUP.

30 Top stocks estimated annual yield ranged 12.54%-37.01%. Top 10, BBVA, SMLP, ORC, SEMG, TLRD, MMLP, PTMN, NNA, NTXFY, and top pick, BPT, averaged 18.9% yield.

Top 10 firms by Wall Street target-price upsides, VET, BGCP, QUAD, SALM, AM, TLRD, JE, VGR, TEN, and top dog, SUP  averaged a 109.07% estimated price gain to 2020.

$5,000 invested 8/1/19 in the lowest-priced five 10%+ top-yield 10 dividend stocks showed 32.4% more projected net gain than from $5,000 invested in all 10.  The low-price smaller Top Dogs again dominated this August 10%+ yield pack.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Brokers Calculated 35.28% To 310.12% Net Gains For Ten 10%+ Yield Stocks By Aug. 1, 2020

Three of ten top 10%+ Yield Dogs were among the top ten gainers for the coming year (based on analyst one-year targets). Thus, this forecast for 10%+ yields, as graded by Wall Street brokers, was 30% accurate.

Projections based on dividends from $1,000 invested in the highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst median target prices of those stocks, as reported by YCharts, created the 2020 data points. Note: one-year target prices from single analysts were not applied (n/a). Ten probable profit-generating trades to Aug. 1, 2020 were:

Source: YCharts

Superior Industries (SUP) was projected to net $3,101.5 based on a median target price estimate from five analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 96% more than the market as a whole.

Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD) was projected to net $914.90, based on the median of target price estimates from two analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 91% more than the market as a whole.

Antero Midstream (AM) was projected to net $867.81 based on dividends, plus the median of target estimates from eleven brokers, less broker fees. A Beta number was not available for AM.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) was projected to net $569.93 based the median of target price estimates from two analysts, plus the estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 2% under the market as a whole.

CM Finance Inc (CMFN) was projected to net $495.83 based the median of target price estimates from two analysts, plus the estimated dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 29% over the market as a whole.

Green Plains Partners (GPP) was projected to net $405.71, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from three analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 50% less than the market as a whole.

Garrison Capital (GARS) was projected to net $399.11, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from four analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 42% under the market as a whole.

FS KKR Capital Corp (FSK) netted $368.34 based on the median of target price estimates from eight analysts, plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk 9% over the market as a whole.

Cherry Hill Mortgage (CHMI) was projected to net $355.49, based on target price estimates from three analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 66% less than the market as a whole.

Semgroup Corp (SEMG) was projected to net $352.81, based on a median target price estimate from ten analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 50% more than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 78.31% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average risk 13% more than the market as a whole.

Source: dog-training-excellence.com

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs".

88 10%+Yield August TopDogs By Broker Price Target Upsides

Source:YCharts

88 10%+ Yield Top Dogs By Yield

Source:YCharts

Actionable Conclusions (11-20) Top Ten 10%+ Dog Yields Ranged 14.62-37.01%.

Top ten 10%+Yield TopDogs selected 8/1/19 by yield represented five of eleven Morningstar sectors.

Top stock on the list was the first of four energy representatives: BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT) [1]. The other three energy stocks placed fifth, seventh, and ninth, Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP) [5]; Semgroup Corp (SEMG) [7]; Summit Midstream Partners LP (SMLP) [9].

Three financial services representatives fount themselves in second, fourth, and tenth places: Natixis (OTCPK:NTXFY) [2]; Portman Ridge Finance Corp (PTMN) [4]; Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) [10].

The lone industrials representative placed third, Navios Maritime Acquisition Corp (NNA) [3].

Finally, one consumer cyclical stock placed sixth on the list, Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD) [6], and real estate stock placed eighth, Orchid Island Capital Inc (ORC) [8].

to complete the 10%+ Yield TopDog top ten for August 2019-20.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten 10%+ Yield TopDogs Showed 23.78% To 296.83% Upsides To August, 2020; (22) Lowest Downsides Had Two At -1.88% And -3.17%.

Source:YCharts

To quantify top yield rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst mean price target estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 32.4% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced 10%+ Yield Top Dogs To August, 2020

Ten top 10%+ Yield Dogs were culled by yield for this August update. Yield (dividend/price) results from YCharts, verified by YahooFinance, did the ranking.

Source: YCharts

As noted above, top ten 10%+Yield TopDogs selected 8/1/19 showing the highest dividend yields represented five of eleven sectors in the Morningstar scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated Five Lowest-Priced Top 10 Highest-Yield 10%+ TopDogs (25) Delivering 50.69% Vs. (26) 38.28% Net Gains From All Ten By Aug. 1, 2020

Source: YCharts

$5,000 invested as $1,000 in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten 10%+ Yield TopDogs collection was expected by analyst one-year targets to deliver 32.4% more net gain than $5,000 invested as $500 in all 10. The second lowest priced 10%+ top yield WallStar, Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD), was projected by analysts to deliver the best net gain of 91.49%.

Source: YCharts

The five lowest-priced top 10%+ Yield stocks as of Aug. 1 were: Portman Ridge Finance Corp (PTMN); Tailored Brands Inc (TLRD); Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA); Martin Midstream Partners LP (MMLP); Navios Maritime Acquisition Corp (NNA), with prices ranging from $2.32 to $6.20.

Five higher-priced 10%+ Dividend Top Dogs from Aug. 1 were: Orchid Island Capital Inc (ORC); Summit Midstream Partners LP (SMLP); BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT); Semgroup Corp (SEMG); Natixis (OTCPK:NTXFY), whose prices ranged from $6.20 to $39.91.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 80% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 20% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your 10%+ Yield Dividend Dog purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in YahooFinance. Dog photo: dog-training-excellence.com

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Editor's Note: This article covers one or more microcap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.