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Tracking Ken Fisher's Fisher Asset Management Portfolio - Q2 2019 Update

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Includes: AAPL, AAWW, ABB, ABEV, ADBE, AMX, AMZN, ASML, ASX, AXP, AZN, AZPN, BA, BABA, BAP, BASFY, BBD, BBL, BBVA, BIDU, BNPQY, BP, BUD, CFRUY, CHE, CLF, COP, COST, CRM, CSCO, CTRP, CVX, DPZ, EWBC, FANUF, FCX, GE, GOOG, GOOGL, GSK, HD, HDB, HEI, HES, HRC, HSBC, INFY, ING, INTC, ISNPY, ITUB, JD, JNJ, JPM, LFUS, LLY, LRLCY, LVMUY, MA, MELY, MRAAY, MRK, MSFT, NFLX, NSRGY, NTES, NVDA, NVO, NVS, ORCL, PBR, PEGA, PFE, PG, POOL, RDS.A, RIO, RJF, SAM, SAN, SAP, SBGSY, SCCO, SCGLY, SF, SFTBY, SIEGY, SIVB, SLB, SMCAY, SMFG, SMG, SNY, SSYS, STE, TCEHY, TDY, TOELY, TOT, TSM, TTC, UBS, UTX, V, VALE, VCISY, VECO, VRNT, WB, WMGI, WMT, WST, XOM, YELP
by: John Vincent
Summary

Fisher’s 13F portfolio value increased from $85.30B to $90.45B in Q2 2019.

Visa Inc., Amazon.com, Microsoft, Apple Inc., and Alibaba Group Holding are the largest five individual stock positions.

Fisher has substantial stakes in several ETFs/ETNs and hundreds of very small positions. They together account for more than one-third of the 13F portfolio.

This article is part of a series that provides an ongoing analysis of the changes made to Kenneth Fisher’s 13F stock portfolio on a quarterly basis. It is based on Fisher Asset Management’s regulatory 13F Form filed on 07/30/2019. Please visit our Tracking Kenneth Fisher's Fisher Asset Management Holdings article for an idea on his investment style and philosophy and our previous update highlighting the fund’s moves in Q1 2019.

This quarter, Fisher’s 13F portfolio value increased ~6% from $85.30B to $90.45B. The number of holdings increased from 862 to 902. Significantly large positions remained steady at 66. The five largest individual stock positions are Visa Inc., Amazon.com, Microsoft, Apple Inc., and Alibaba Group Holding. Together, they account for ~16% of the 13F stock portfolio.

Note: Fisher manages ~60,000 private client accounts and over 175 institutional accounts. Each such portfolio is personalized to client requirements and beating the S&P is not the focus for many of them. "13F Portfolio performance" which would be the performance of the sum total of all such monies in 13F securities is an unknown. To know more about Ken Fisher, check out his Research Papers (most notably in Behavioral Finance) and investment books.

Stake Increases:

Salesforce.com (CRM) and Adobe Inc. (ADBE): These two positions had seen large increases in the last two quarters. The 0.94% CRM position saw a ~180% increase in Q4 2018 at prices between $121 and $160 and another ~55% increase last quarter at prices between $130 and $167. The stock is now at ~$146 and the stake is now at 0.94% of the portfolio. This quarter also saw a ~5% stake increase. For investors attempting to follow, CRM is a good option to consider for further research. ADBE is a ~1% portfolio stake that saw a ~300% increase in Q4 2018 at prices between $205 and $275 and another ~75% increase last quarter at prices between $216 and $272. The stock is now well above those ranges at $294. This quarter also saw an ~8% stake increase.

Visa Inc. (V): The Visa position was first purchased in 2012 at much lower prices compared to the current price of ~$177. The size of the stake has more than tripled in the last six years through incremental purchases almost every quarter. The position is now the largest stake at 3.80% of the portfolio.

Amazon.com (AMZN): AMZN is the second-largest individual stock position at 3.60% of the portfolio. The stake is from 2011 and the stock price has risen over nine-fold during the holding period: the cost-basis is ~$200 compared to the current price of $1823. Q2 2016 saw a ~20% selling at prices between $586 and $728. There was another ~16% selling in Q2 2017 at prices between $885 and $1,011. The three quarters through Q1 2018 had seen a ~15% increase at prices between $935 and $1,600 while the following quarter saw a similar reduction at prices between $1,370 and $1,750. There were minor increases in the last four quarters.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): MSFT is a top five 3.08% of the portfolio position. It is a very long-term stake that has been in the portfolio for well over a decade. Last two years have seen a combined ~30% increase at prices between $69 and $137. The stock is now at ~$137.

Apple Inc. (AAPL): AAPL is a top-five ~3% individual stock position that was built in 2012 at prices between $60 and $72. The original stake was increased by ~60% in Q2 2013 at prices between $59 and $65. There was a ~9% trimming in Q2 2017 at prices between $141 and $156. The stock currently trades at ~$204. Last two years have seen a combined ~30% increase at prices between $144 and $230.

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA): BABA is a 2.16% of the portfolio stake. The original position was from Q2 2015 at prices between $81 and $93. Q1 2017 saw a two-thirds increase at prices between $88 and $110. That was followed with a ~90% increase next quarter at prices between $107 and $144. The stock currently trades at ~$161. There was a ~13% stake increase over the last seven quarters.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE): PFE is a very long-term 2.11% position that has been in the portfolio for well over a decade.The original stake was almost sold out in the 2009-10 time frame and was rebuilt in the next two years at prices between $17.50 and $25. The stock is currently at $38. Last six quarters have seen a ~20% increase at prices between $34 and $46.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (GOOGL): GOOG was a very small position that was built-up to a substantial 2% stake in 2011 at prices between $242 and $301. The stock has more than tripled and currently trades at $1,194. The position stands at ~2% of the portfolio. There was a ~14% reduction in Q2 2017 at prices between $823 and $984. Q1 2018 saw an ~11% stake increase at prices between $1,000 and $1,176 and that was followed with minor increases in the last five quarters.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): JNJ is a 1.82% of the portfolio position. Around two-thirds of the stake was purchased in 2008 at prices between $55 and $72 and most of the rest in 2011 at prices between $58 and $68. The stock currently trades at ~$131. There was a ~12% stake increase in Q1 2018 and that was followed with a similar reduction in Q3 2018. Last three quarters have seen minor increases.

Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) (NYSE:RDS.B): These two positions had seen large increases in Q4 2018. The 1.80% CSCO stake saw a ~35% increase at prices between $40 and $49 and the stock is currently at $53.25. RDS.A is a ~1% of the portfolio position increased by ~70% in Q4 2018 at prices between $55.50 and $69.50. The stock currently trades at $58.41. Both positions saw minor increases in the last two quarters.

American Express (AXP): AXP has been in the portfolio since 2012. The original position was around 9M shares purchased at an average cost in the $50s and the current stake is 11.35M shares. Last five quarters saw a combined ~12% stake increase. The stock is now at ~$124 and the stake is at 1.55% of the portfolio.

Intel Corporation (INTC): The bulk of the 1.41% portfolio stake in INTC was built in 2008 in the high-teens. The position has seen consistent incremental buying since 2013. There was a ~10% stake increase in Q1 2018 at prices between $42.50 and $52.50. The stock is currently at $48.68. Last five quarters have also seen minor increases.

Walmart Inc. (WMT): The bulk of the 1.30% WMT position was purchased in Q2 2016 at prices between $65 and $73. Q4 2017 saw a ~45% stake increase at prices between $78 and $100 and that was followed with a ~12% increase next quarter. The stock is now at ~$109. Last five quarters also saw a combined ~9% increase.

Tencent Holdings ADR (OTCPK:TCEHY): The majority of the ~1% TCEHY stake was purchased in Q2 2017. The quarter saw a 13.5M share purchase at prices between $29 and $37. The stock is now at $44.89. Last two years have seen incremental purchases. The current position is at ~20.7M shares.

Home Depot (HD): HD is a 1.12% of the 13F portfolio position first purchased in 2012 at prices between $42 and $65. Q2 2017 saw a ~38% selling at prices between $146 and $159 and that was followed with another 28% reduction in Q4 2017 at prices between $150 and $190. There was a reversal next quarter: ~14% stake increase at prices between $172 and $207 and that was followed with minor increases in the last five quarters. The stock is now at ~$212.

Procter & Gamble (PG): PG is a long-term 0.62% of the 13F portfolio position that has been in the portfolio since before the financial crisis. The original position was increased by just over 75% in 2012 at prices between $60 and $70. The six-year period through 2018 had also seen periodic buying. Last quarter saw an about turn: ~50% selling at prices between $90 and $104. The stock currently trades at $116. This quarter saw a minor increase.

AstraZeneca plc (AZN), Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ADR (BUD), ASML Holdings (ASML), BHP Group (BBL), Chevron Corp. (CVX), Costco Wholesale (COST), Eli Lilly (LLY), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), LVMH Moet Hennessy ADR (OTCPK:LVMUY), L'Oreal SA ADR (OTCPK:LRLCY), Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK), Novo Nordisk A/S ADR (NVO), Novartis AG ADR (NVS), Oracle Corporation (ORCL), Rio Tinto (RIO), SoftBank Group ADR (OTCPK:SFTBY), Sanofi ADR (SNY), SAP SE ADR (SAP), Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB), and United Technologies (UTX): These small positions (less than ~1% of the 13F portfolio) were increased this quarter.

Stake Decreases:

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): TSM is a very long-term 1.50% of the 13F portfolio position. A large block was purchased in 2012 at prices between $12.50 and $16.50. The stake was reduced by ~50% in Q2 2013 at prices between $17 and $20. The nine quarters through Q2 2016 saw the position rebuilt (70% increase) at prices between $19 and $26. The ten quarters through 2018 had also seen periodic buying. The stock currently trades at $41.65. Last two quarters saw minor trimming.

Itau Unibanco (ITUB): The 0.46% position had seen a two-thirds increase in Q4 2018 at prices between $7.25 and $9.35 and it is now at $8.98. The position saw a minor increase last quarter and marginal trimming this quarter.

UBS Group AG (UBS): UBS is a 0.67% of the 13F portfolio position established in Q3 2013 at prices between $17 and $21.50. The original stake was reduced by around one-third in Q4 2013 at prices between $19 and $22. Q1 2014 saw an about-turn as the position was increased by ~37% at prices between $18.50 and $21.50 and the following quarter saw an additional 47% stake increase at prices between $18 and $21.50. In Q4 2014, the pattern reversed as the position was reduced by ~40%. The three quarters through Q4 2017 had seen a two-thirds stake increase at prices between $12.25 and $23. The stock currently trades at $11.12. Since then the activity has been minor. This quarter saw marginal trimming.

Total SA (TOT): The 0.87% TOT stake was mostly purchased in Q3 2018 at prices between $59 and $65. This quarter saw a ~20% selling at prices between $51.50 and $58. The stock is currently at $49.39.

Banco Santander SA ADR (SAN), BNP Paribas ADR (OTCQX:BNPQY), Ctrip.com (CTRP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), GlaxoSmithKline plc ADR (GSK), HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC), HDFC Bank (HDB), ING Groep NV ADR (ING), Infosys Ltd. (INFY), Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR), Siemens AG (OTCPK:SIEGY), Sumitomo Mitsui Financial (SMFG), and Vale SA (VALE): These small (less than ~1% of the portfolio each) positions were reduced during the quarter.

The portfolio has several positions in different ETNs and ETFs - they account for around 15% of the 13F portfolio. Fisher also had large stakes in the following businesses per the latest 13G filings: Stratasys Ltd. (SSYS), Atlas Air (AAWW), Wright Medical (WMGI), and Veeco Instruments (VECO).

Below are positions sized in the 0.1% to 0.5% range in the portfolio: ABB Ltd (ABB), ASE Technology (ASX), Ambev (ABEV), America Movil (AMX), Aspen Technology (AZPN), BASF SE ADR (OTCQX:BASFY), BP plc (BP), Baidu Inc. (BIDU), Banco Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA), Banco Bradesco (BBD), Boeing Company (BA), Boston Beer (SAM), Chemed Corp. (CHE), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), Compagnie Financiere Richemont (OTCPK:CFRUY), ConocoPhillips (COP), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), East West Bancorp (EWBC), Fanuc Corp. (OTCPK:FANUF), General Electric (GE), HEICO Corp. (HEI), Hess Corp (HES), Hill-Rom Holdings (HRC), Intesa Sanpaolo Spa ADR (OTCPK:ISNPY), JD.com (JD), Littelfuse Inc. (LFUS), Mastercard Inc. (MA), Mitsubishi Electric (OTCPK:MIELY), Murata Manufacturing (OTCPK:MRAAY), Nestle (OTCPK:NSRGY), Netflix (NFLX), NetEase Inc. (NTES), Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Pegasystems (PEGA), Pool Corp. (POOL), Raymond James Financial (RJF), SMC Corp. Japan (OTCPK:SMCAY), SVB Financial (SIVB), Schneider Electric (OTCPK:SBGSY), Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG), Societe Generale France (OTCPK:SCGLY), Southern Copper (SCCO), Stifel Financial (SF), Teledyne (TDY), Tokyo Electron (OTCPK:TOELY), Toro Co. (TTC), Verint Systems (VRNT), VINCI SA (OTCPK:VCISY), Weibo Corp. (WB), West Pharmaceutical (WST), Yelp Inc. (YELP), Credicorp Ltd. (BAP), and STERIS plc (STE).

The spreadsheet below highlights changes to Fisher’s 13F stock holdings (only positions that are over 0.5% of the 13F portfolio each are individually listed) in Q2 2019:

Kenneth Fisher - Fisher Asset Management - Q2 2019 13F Report Q/Q Comparison

Disclosure: I am/we are long AZN, BABA, BIDU, BP, GE, GSK, INTC, JD, SFTBY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.